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March 27 SpringBlizzard Discussion


Ji

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The NAM wins again. The NAM has won all season long.

the nam's higher resolution wins on sharp cutoffs. being in/near the sharp cutoff is dangerous. being south of d.c. and outside a localized band is dangerous. late march is dangerous. there was so much stacked against this one any flakes were a win.

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And once again the NCEP models really had a tough go of it. Excuses have been made since our first snow about 12/20...and in every different pattern they've continued to stink most of the time. Hopefully they work it out pre 2011/12.

yep, and the Euro was really bad this year vs. prior years down here

I honestly think BWI would have had a 60"+ season is the Euro's 4 day forecasts were right (probably 75"+ based on 5 day forecasts)

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what's up the 12z NAM today....some kind of joke

DCA

69 03/30 09Z 34 32 73 6 0.08 0.00 541 558 -2.0 -17.7 1021 100 SN 003OVC271 0.6 1.4

72 03/30 12Z 32 32 58 5 0.30 0.00 541 559 -2.3 -16.5 1022 100 SN 000OVC382 3.0 0.0

75 03/30 15Z 32 32 100 8 0.40 0.00 544 560 -1.0 -16.9 1019 100 SN 000OVC368 4.4 0.4

78 03/30 18Z 32 32 115 7 0.29 0.00 546 558 -0.8 -17.3 1015 100 -SN 000OVC336 3.2 0.0

81 03/30 21Z 32 32 49 5 0.14 0.00 545 555 -1.3 -18.0 1012 100 RA 000OVC159 0.5 0.0

84 03/31 00Z 32 32 26 5 0.12 0.00 541 551 -2.3 -17.7 1012 100 -RA 000OVC083 0.9 0.5

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what's up the 12z NAM today....some kind of joke

DCA

69 03/30 09Z 34 32 73 6 0.08 0.00 541 558 -2.0 -17.7 1021 100 SN 003OVC271 0.6 1.4

72 03/30 12Z 32 32 58 5 0.30 0.00 541 559 -2.3 -16.5 1022 100 SN 000OVC382 3.0 0.0

75 03/30 15Z 32 32 100 8 0.40 0.00 544 560 -1.0 -16.9 1019 100 SN 000OVC368 4.4 0.4

78 03/30 18Z 32 32 115 7 0.29 0.00 546 558 -0.8 -17.3 1015 100 -SN 000OVC336 3.2 0.0

81 03/30 21Z 32 32 49 5 0.14 0.00 545 555 -1.3 -18.0 1012 100 RA 000OVC159 0.5 0.0

84 03/31 00Z 32 32 26 5 0.12 0.00 541 551 -2.3 -17.7 1012 100 -RA 000OVC083 0.9 0.5

april is the new january

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what's up the 12z NAM today....some kind of joke

DCA

69 03/30 09Z 34 32 73 6 0.08 0.00 541 558 -2.0 -17.7 1021 100 SN 003OVC271 0.6 1.4

72 03/30 12Z 32 32 58 5 0.30 0.00 541 559 -2.3 -16.5 1022 100 SN 000OVC382 3.0 0.0

75 03/30 15Z 32 32 100 8 0.40 0.00 544 560 -1.0 -16.9 1019 100 SN 000OVC368 4.4 0.4

78 03/30 18Z 32 32 115 7 0.29 0.00 546 558 -0.8 -17.3 1015 100 -SN 000OVC336 3.2 0.0

81 03/30 21Z 32 32 49 5 0.14 0.00 545 555 -1.3 -18.0 1012 100 RA 000OVC159 0.5 0.0

84 03/31 00Z 32 32 26 5 0.12 0.00 541 551 -2.3 -17.7 1012 100 -RA 000OVC083 0.9 0.5

Like a flat-lining cardiogram. The death of winter?

post-1746-0-95906400-1301241511.png

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what's up the 12z NAM today....some kind of joke

DCA

69 03/30 09Z 34 32 73 6 0.08 0.00 541 558 -2.0 -17.7 1021 100 SN 003OVC271 0.6 1.4

72 03/30 12Z 32 32 58 5 0.30 0.00 541 559 -2.3 -16.5 1022 100 SN 000OVC382 3.0 0.0

75 03/30 15Z 32 32 100 8 0.40 0.00 544 560 -1.0 -16.9 1019 100 SN 000OVC368 4.4 0.4

78 03/30 18Z 32 32 115 7 0.29 0.00 546 558 -0.8 -17.3 1015 100 -SN 000OVC336 3.2 0.0

81 03/30 21Z 32 32 49 5 0.14 0.00 545 555 -1.3 -18.0 1012 100 RA 000OVC159 0.5 0.0

84 03/31 00Z 32 32 26 5 0.12 0.00 541 551 -2.3 -17.7 1012 100 -RA 000OVC083 0.9 0.5

give it 3 days to trend from today's 12Z last 24 hrs of the run....

nam_p24_084l.gif

to the last 24 hrs of yesterday's 18Z run

nam_p24_024l.gif

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Looking at the record cold maxes IAD has seen a 35F on 3/24/71 and that was under -10.1C H85 temps.

The amazing 7.6" at 18:1 ratios from 3/30/64 - 3/31/64 fell with H85 at -11.2C at 0Z on the 30th, -14.9C at 12Z on the 31st and -9.3C at 0Z on 4/1. The recorded highs were 37F and 39F.

The coldest April high ever, 38F, resulted from a 12Z H85 temp of -10.1.

It's gonna take a lot to make the GFS's 18Z temp of 29F verify with a 12Z H85 starting point of -7.8C. The EC's 36F under -10C u/l is probably more realistic.

LOL. GFS surface temps. ;)

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