Avdave Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Springtime snows used to be fairly common out this way, but they've gone away here too. Some notable events at MRB: 4/3-5/1987: 4.5" 3/29/1984: 8.0" 4/9/1982: 3.0" 4/6/1971: 4.0" 4/12/1959: 4.0" 3/29/1942: 12.0" 4/28/1928: 10.0" Hello 1928 redux coming our way LOL BTW: Happy Birthday craig But don't forget, "If we get snow this week, I have been saying it was likely for a few weeks." There you go, thats the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Springtime snows used to be fairly common out this way, but they've gone away here too. Some notable events at MRB: 4/3-5/1987: 4.5" 3/29/1984: 8.0" 4/9/1982: 3.0" 4/6/1971: 4.0" 4/12/1959: 4.0" 3/29/1942: 12.0" 4/28/1928: 10.0" So no springtime snows in the 1990's or the 2000's. So we are due. Three in the 1980's. Any of them La Nina years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 But don't forget, "If we get snow this week, I have been saying it was likely for a few weeks." which means if it doesn't, you bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 So no springtime snows in the 1990's or the 2000's. So we are due. Three in the 1980's. Any of them La Nina years? 5 out of those 7 were -AMO yrs. Noticed the great arctic outbreaks/late season snows tend to happen more frequently in the -AMO or neutral rather than the +AMO. 1959 was technically neutral/weak negative, though 1942 was raging positive, so perhaps 6 out of 7 is actually the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 which means if it doesn't, you bust Exactly! I doubt he or others would/will admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Can there be a distinction made between climo for La Nina years and climo for non-La Nina years. Or is climo considered the same for all years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice50/50 low. We can use a little more ridge amplification over the front range to help form a stronger further south eastern troff. All major playes in place for an elevated SNE icepussy event. 138 storm is a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Can there be a distinction made between climo for La Nina years and climo for non-La Nina years. Or is climo considered the same for all years? Yes to some degree. You have a lot smaller sample though and the pre 1950 stuff is an educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Hello 1928 redux coming our way LOL BTW: Happy Birthday craig Dave, I appreciate the b'day wishes. I questioned the data when I first came across that 1928 event. I mean, isn't the end of April roughly the equivalent of mid-August with the sun angle ? I posted about it at the time on euswx and guys from the western Carolinas chimed in that they too got smacked from that storm. Pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Sorry I have to say it... but the 06z DGEX was a really good laugh on its snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 So no springtime snows in the 1990's or the 2000's. So we are due. Three in the 1980's. Any of them La Nina years? This area had some minor (generally less than 2") events in very late March and April of 1990, 1996 and a couple inches on 3/30/2003.. But yeah, spring has really changed these past 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Sorry I have to say it... but the 06z DGEX was a really good laugh on its snow map clue me I stopped my accuwx acct since "winter is over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Mish mash please -- 18z GFS individual ensembles from 132 to 144. A few snow, a few rain... but mainly right on the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 clue me I stopped my accuwx acct since "winter is over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 FWIW, Dave says north of a CHO-EZF line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 yeah but that's 50 years ago. if you look at any trendline for late season snow it is a downward slope. i mean it's tough since the late-season sample is small anyway (even during the heyday). it is somewhat academic of course, and i'd be personally skeptical of any threat in this range even in our prime snow period. the set you mention might be interesting to look at if you would like to post it. Yup, late season snowfalls are going the way of November snows...and annual sub-zero lows. Oh well. It's interesting that the 3/29/42 14" snowfall in Baltimore happened on a day with a high of 35 and low of only 32. It took a staggering 2.28" of liquid to get the job done, though. The GFS and EC's suggested high of 29/30F is at least remotely possible for the 27th. That is when considered in the context of the 28F recorded on 3/24 1906 and the multiple 33/34F highs for DC and Balt (a century ago) in that last week of March. While a lot's changed the sun is only a bit stronger now than it was then. On the other hand...while -6C at H85 is cold, it's not all that cold so pulling off a sub freezing day in late March will be an interesting challenge. I've only scanned through the hourlies for the "impressive late season snowfalls" from both Balt and DC, but one thing stands out. I couldn't find any example of a >4" snowfall after March 21st that didn't start at least a few hours before dawn. I've attached the data. Well, most of it. I compiled it on multiple computers between home and work. Unfortunately I'm only finding the workbook that had Dulles' snowfalls pair with the AAM, its tendency, stage/phase/etc. I can't find the finalized workbook that included the various enso regions and their temps along with that same information for all the major city's snowfalls. I really hope I haven't lost that final workbook, it was the product of a lot of work. There are two workbooks if you follow the links below. One is for the "Grouped Snowfalls" where I've taken each city's many snowfalls and attempted to group consecutive days of measurements into snowstorms. The "Discrete Snowfalls" are just a listing of all the snowfalls and their date of occurrence. There's a good chance that the individual sheets might be incorrectly sorted so make sure you check for that. Grouped Snowfalls Discrete Snow Events I'll update those two when I find the final workbooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 the set you mention might be interesting to look at if you would like to post it. P.S. In my hiatus you've become arguably more pessimistic than I am. You used to be ever so slightly more optimistic. I'm not sure what this implies, but I'm assuming it has something to do with my advancing years and compounding mental deficiencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 P.S. In my hiatus you've become arguably more pessimistic than I am. You used to be ever so slightly more optimistic. I'm not sure what this implies, but I'm assuming it has something to do with my advancing years and compounding mental deficiencies. Fear of disappointment, or becoming a seasoned Washingtonian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yup, late season snowfalls are going the way of November snows...and annual sub-zero lows. Oh well. It's interesting that the 3/29/42 14" snowfall in Baltimore happened on a day with a high of 35 and low of only 32. It took a staggering 2.28" of liquid to get the job done, though. Baltimore recorded 22" in that storm, though. 3/58 had an even more incredible amount of liquid-- almost 4"-- for only 5" of snow at DCA. Of course, higher places within the city got well over a foot, and NW Montgomery County was over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Baltimore recorded 22" in that storm, though. 3/58 had an even more incredible amount of liquid-- almost 4"-- for only 5" of snow at DCA. Of course, higher places within the city got well over a foot, and NW Montgomery County was over 20". Well look at that, they sure did. How'd I miss that...argh! That 1958 storm was amazing as was the 4/14 storm back in...1882 or 1884. Something like that. An amazing 20+ across the northern tier of Md. EDIT...I think I know how I missed it. Well, maybe. Was it the Custom's House or another location that recorded the 22"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 P.S. In my hiatus you've become arguably more pessimistic than I am. You used to be ever so slightly more optimistic. I'm not sure what this implies, but I'm assuming it has something to do with my advancing years and compounding mental deficiencies. I'm definitely more pessimistic the more I learn about wx forecasting and climo. I don't think it's always as helpful as it seems to be pessimistic though. Not everything falls into a realm of the known or expected obviously. Thx for the other info and data in the previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The March 42 snowgasm would have been one to see. I imagine blinding quarter sized snowflakes for hours on end falling. Maybe something like the Feb 87 wet snowstorm only 3 times longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00z GFS looks like a snow/mix to rain south of DC... could be wet snow N MD/Mason Dixon line through 120 126 back to ice? Strung out mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00z GFS looks like a snow/mix to rain south of DC... could be wet snow N MD/Mason Dixon line Also nice storm forming at 162. Jet Streak in Wyoming and a stronger confluence zone probably means a bomb further south than 18z. Kicker sorta ruins this run. but still plenty of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like convective feedback starts at 168... so lets see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ah... the ole split at 174-180 but the 2m temps FWIW are def cold... upper 20s prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 cold rain is punishment we dont deserve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 the mar 29 looks mightly mid-winter like in this range. no amplification, more energy right on the s/w tail. good thing SNE got a thaw or CT Blizz's house might have been buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Too bad we have that 12 hr jump from 180-192... but that looks like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Too bad we have that 12 hr jump from 180-192... but that looks like snow it probably is dc area and north at least the dt fantasy storm might produce some backlash with a stacked low just east. n and e would still be favored.. and it's 400 million days off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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