Pityflakes Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 So if its JAN 30th, and we have the exact same "scenario" ground/air temps in all aspects, how would climo factor in then? Sun/Moon angle. Also, don't forget that we are now in daylight savings time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Why wouldn't we get everything as accumulating QPF now? Lows have been in the 20's two nights in a row, so ground temps are somewhat cold. Its also falling at night. So if its JAN 30th, and we have the exact same "scenario" ground/air temps in all aspects, how would climo factor in then? the same scenario would be colder then. the sun is less powerful as well and surfaces retain heat well after sundown. elevated objects will get cold quicker so it might not be a huge issue, but the ground is probably warmer than you think. plus temps may not be below freezing or far below freezing till the snow starts so you'll probably lose a little on the front end just cooling things further. rates can negate still but i think we're probably too far north for that talk to factor in too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Sun/Moon angle. Also, don't forget that we are now in daylight savings time.... Ah yes, the comment "how will the extra hour of light effect Accums? Forget who that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 the same scenario would be colder then. the sun is less powerful as well and surfaces retain heat well after sundown. elevated objects will get cold quicker so it might not be a huge issue, but the ground is probably warmer than you think. plus temps may not be below freezing or far below freezing till the snow starts so you'll probably lose a little on the front end just cooling things further. rates can negate still but i think we're probably too far north for that talk to factor in too much. Alrighty then. Just seems like extra solar energy, while both at 50F, would be a minor difference, and might be weighted a bit too heavily...but I digress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I have to say, the nice thing about this storm is the low expectations. No one has ever said this would be 6+". If DC gets an inch, it will be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I have to say, the nice thing about this storm is the low expectations. No one has ever said this would be 6+". If DC gets an inch, it will be awesome. I'd say there is a higher chance of DC getting an inch than not seeing a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I have to say, the nice thing about this storm is the low expectations. No one has ever said this would be 6+". If DC gets an inch, it will be awesome. Yes it would be, especially considering I have only had 3 different inch+ snows this entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Ah yes, the comment "how will the extra hour of light effect Accums? Forget who that was That was an Eastern joke from way back. Might have even been from before you joined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 That was an Eastern joke from way back. Might have even been from before you joined. that was no joke. a poster named samuel adams posted it and was serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Don't agree with you...models are showing anywhere from .1-.2 for DC...slide the storm due east and we get our .1-.2. That simple boundary temps are warm, so there is going to need to be some evaporational cooling to get it cold enough for it to snow, which means there will be wasted qpf just to get the rain to turn to snow; after that, there's not a whole lot of qpf left coating seems to be the best DCA proper and BWI generally will see imho I guess this late in the season that may be of note, but to me, just another reminder of how sucky things have been otoh, enso for next year with a western qbo says we might do pretty well, and definitely better than this year and likely above average (assuming a weakish NINA and western qbo), and next season is only 8 months away come Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The HRR looks like SH!T-- FYI for us three south of 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 boundary temps are warm, so there is going to need to be some evaporational cooling to get it cold enough for it to snow, which means there will be wasted qpf just to get the rain to turn to snow; after that, there's not a whole lot of qpf left coating seems to be the best DCA proper and BWI generally will see imho I guess this late in the season that may be of note, but to me, just another reminder of how sucky things have been otoh, enso for next year with a western qbo says we might do pretty well, and definitely better than this year and likely above average (assuming a weakish NINA and western qbo), and next season is only 8 months away come Thursday Did you see JB's blog on Weatherbell today???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 boundary temps are warm, so there is going to need to be some evaporational cooling to get it cold enough for it to snow, which means there will be wasted qpf just to get the rain to turn to snow; after that, there's not a whole lot of qpf left coating seems to be the best DCA proper and BWI generally will see imho I guess this late in the season that may be of note, but to me, just another reminder of how sucky things have been otoh, enso for next year with a western qbo says we might do pretty well, and definitely better than this year and likely above average (assuming a weakish NINA and western qbo), and next season is only 8 months away come Thursday Umm, why the hell do you want a +QBO? Warm ENSO neutral with a -QBO (easterly), -IO, is the deal next yr...book it and hold me to it. Last time I checked it was a 13 month cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Well, down to 40 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Justin Berk's forecast for 1-2 isolated 3 up to Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Did you see JB's blog on Weatherbell today???? no do you have a link? wth is weatherbell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Justin Berk's forecast for 1-2 isolated 3 up to Baltimore I am glad you saw that, I laughed when i saw that. Talk about hugging the model that shows the most snow. Wow. VDOT and its contractors are out on the sides of the highways already Talk about overhype on this system. Jesus Horace Christ. It is ridiculous 38/14 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Justin Berk's forecast for 1-2 isolated 3 up to Baltimore He has busted so bad on these little snow events it's actually really sad. He is probably one of the biggest weenies on TV when it comes to snow...lol...I actually like him a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 no do you have a link? wth is weatherbell? it is Joe Bastardi's new gig with Joe D Aleo http://www.weatherbell.com/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Umm, why the hell do you want a +QBO? Warm ENSO neutral with a -QBO (easterly), -IO, is the deal next yr...book it and hold me to it. Last time I checked it was a 13 month cycle. not always 13 months but yeah, you're right, I got my qbo wrong, it looks to be headed negative into the winter, which is similar to 02/03 and that is why I like it in any event, I'll take a wamer than average ENSO any day over a crappy NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 it is Joe Bastardi's new gig with Joe D Aleo http://www.weatherbell.com/index.html thanks I haven't been around lately so I guess I missed the news the name sux, but wtf, gotta' call it something and it must have been available (for good reason too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I am glad you saw that, I laughed when i saw that. Talk about hugging the model that shows the most snow. Wow. VDOT and its contractors are out on the sides of the highways already Talk about overhype on this system. Jesus Horace Christ. It is ridiculous 38/14 here now sadly, 8PM obs show little even hitting the ground out to our west http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 no way charlottsville is getting 2-5 inches with a current temp of 45 and a dp of 24... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rnk&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=325&map.y=35&site=RNK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Justin Berk's forecast for 1-2 isolated 3 up to Baltimore Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 no way charlottsville is getting 2-5 inches with a current temp of 45 and a dp of 24... http://forecast.weat...p.y=35&site=RNK That makes for one hell of a wet snowfall, take some pictures for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sadly, 8PM obs show little even hitting the ground out to our west http://weather.unisy...anddiv=hide_bar I have been having doubts all along but with J Berks map that is overly agressive. I mean it is DC end of March, no one should expect much. I expect places like Wintergreen, Massanutte, snowshoe, wv and the Skyline drive to do ok with 2-4" but thats it. Lower elevations and Bal-DC wont be getting anything much to add to this season IMO. If the precip comes down hard enough along I 64 corridor maybe Lousia county area may get some snow on the ground but an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 He has busted so bad on these little snow events it's actually really sad. He is probably one of the biggest weenies on TV when it comes to snow...lol...I actually like him a lot. I think he is a good guy but he just hypes too much and always follows the model that shows the highest amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 not always 13 months but yeah, you're right, I got my qbo wrong, it looks to be headed negative into the winter, which is similar to 02/03 and that is why I like it in any event, I'll take a wamer than average ENSO any day over a crappy NINA Last winter had the -QBO too, as did 2002/03, and 1995/96. It's pretty much a necessity if you want a snowy winter http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data Can't help but wonder if this winter's +QBO had something to do with the "snow hole". Yeah I know it Didn't, but I want to believe it did. I just hope you realize, were were Stacked with a Strong La Nina, +QBO, +IO, and still had plenty of opportunities, and some great WX. In these circumstances, we scored another 09/10, we had everything possible against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 DCA just needs .1.. We can do it!! Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I think he is a good guy but he just hypes too much and always follows the model that shows the highest amounts. Agreed with you there. He is a good guy but yeah loves to hype. could be egg on his face by 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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