BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It won't do us or even DC any good, but I will be waiting for the folks further south to start wailing about sleet and dryslots while the heaviest goes just north. you're getting the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 If the heavier snows miss me I will be driving south and west tomorrow. Can't miss out on the possibility of the last snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 DT's first call might actually verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks like just north of town may be the winners. And I posted this in the Richmond thread, but I'll post here as well just to put this possibility into some perspective since some accumulation might take place officially at the airport. Top 15 Late Season Snowstorms at RIC (after March 15th since 1898) 1. 10.0" April 3-4, 1915 2. 8.4" March 26, 1971 3. 7.8" March 20, 1914 4. 6.9" March 27-28, 1947 5. 6.4" March 24-25, 1906 6. 6.0" March 30-31, 1964 7. 5.9" March 16, 1950 8. 5.4" March 21-22, 1943 9. 4.7" March 16, 1960 10. 4.5" March 25-26, 1906 11. 4.3" March 21-22, 1943 12. 3.6" March 22, 1914 13. 3.4" March 31, 1907 14. 3.0" March 21, 1909 15. 2.8" March 20-21, 1908 Here are some additional late season measurable snowfall at RIC 1.4" March 21-22, 1973 0.9" March 21-22, 2006 0.7" March 16, 1987 and March 20, 1944 0.5" March 24-25, 1940 0.3" March 29, 1984 0.2" March 18-19, 1981 and March 23, 1934 There was an April snowstorm listed above in the Top 15 but, here are the rest of the April snowstorms recorded RIC since 1898. 2.7" April 12, 1918 2.0" April 12, 1940 and April 28, 1898 (latest measurable snow on record) 1.2" April 1, 1964 and April 13, 1957 1.0" April 7, 2007 0.6" April 7, 1971 0.2" April 7, 1990, April 9, 1982, April 21, 1953, and April 16, 1935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 DT's first call might actually verify.... i think im still in his 2-4" zone though the 1" line is maybe a mile away. he's still too high in that zone i think. 3-6 all the way to the bay? eh.. we'll see. it's not terribly cold ahead of this, temps will be falling as precip gets going.. unless you get heavy snow accumulation is going to be slow. i think most all his contour areas are one "notch" too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18z nam has a lot of precip in ric and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 i think im still in his 2-4" zone though the 1" line is maybe a mile away. he's still too high in that zone i think. 3-6 all the way to the bay? eh.. we'll see. it's not terribly cold ahead of this, temps will be falling as precip gets going.. unless you get heavy snow accumulation is going to be slow. i think most all his contour areas are one "notch" too high. I completely agree, mabye there will be some areas that get in on some radiational cooling before the overcast moves in. I know I will. Mount Holly issued a WWA for southern DE, it's like DC is barely out of it aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 when you look at an "honest" radar, you realize how hopeless it is for DCA/BWI, and especially BWI http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/radarse/radarloop.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 when you look at an "honest" radar, you realize how hopeless it is for DCA/BWI, and especially BWI http://www.atmos.alb...e/radarloop.htm Looks better than I would of imagined. Most of the banding would pass through DC if extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks better than I would of imagined. Most of the banding would pass through DC if extrapolated. True but extrapolation isn't straightforward from there as you have to take into account our "squash" assuming the stuff that is involved with the snow is the MO batch, as the convective batch though looking nice is going into S VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18z NAM MRB 0.0 OKV .04 all snow DCA .17 all snow IAD .15 all snow EZF .20 all snow RIC .72 all snow SHD .27 all snow LYH .78 all snow ROA .55 snow and .42PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 True but extrapolation isn't straightforward from there as you have to take into account our "squash" assuming the stuff that is involved with the snow is the MO batch, as the convective batch though looking nice is going into S VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18Z GFS holds at over .10 for DCA/BWI fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18Z GFS holds at over .10 for DCA/BWI fwiw Probably up around .20, like 12z. Seems sufficient for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 if you look at the LES, you can see how the winds remain healthy from the N/NW also, the kiss of death, is that the high clouds over Maine are backing SW indicating the PV will not be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corriewf Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18z NAM MRB 0.0 OKV .04 all snow DCA .17 all snow IAD .15 all snow EZF .20 all snow RIC .72 all snow SHD .27 all snow LYH .78 all snow ROA .55 snow and .42PL What kind of ratios do you think we are looking at here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 18z GFS 12 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 if you look at the LES, you can see how the winds remain healthy from the N/NW also, the kiss of death, is that the high clouds over Maine are backing SW indicating the PV will not be denied You'll be getting nothing then I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 St. Louis is getting hammered right now: METAR KSTL 262151Z 04009KT 1/2SM R30R/2200V3000FT SN FG OVC003 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP156 SNINCR 1/3 P0010 T00001011 Areas of 35dbz snows breaking out along I-70... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 if you look at the LES, you can see how the winds remain healthy from the N/NW also, the kiss of death, is that the high clouds over Maine are backing SW indicating the PV will not be denied There is a reason why you are going to get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 St. Louis is getting hammered right now: METAR KSTL 262151Z 04009KT 1/2SM R30R/2200V3000FT SN FG OVC003 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP156 SNINCR 1/3 P0010 T00001011 Areas of 35dbz snows breaking out along I-70... Nice, come to papa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Trying to build up some excitement for the possible one inch...... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 553 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... JUST WANTED TO UPDATE THE DSCN...AT THIS TIME DON'T SEE A NEED TO DO A CHG TO THE ZNS. I DO THINK THE MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL...OF THE PCPN IS DONE BY NOON SUNDAY. ONE THING I LOOKED AT IS ROAD TEMPS - ATTM MD ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE L60S IN WRN WD...IN THE M60S AT THE JUNCTION OF I-95/495. LOOKED AT A 24 HR HISTORY TO SEE HOW MUCH THOSE COULD EXPECT TO FALL - YDA WRN MD ROADS GOT INTO THE 50S BUT DROPPED TO THE L30S...WHILE 95/495 GOT INTO THE 70S AND DROPPED TO THE M40S. THIS WL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE WHEN SNOW FALLS IN THE METRO AREA - IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME B4 ANY CAN ACCUMULATE ON ROADS. I DON'T FEEL THE NEED TO PUSH THE ADVSRY FURTHER N AT THIS TIME. PRSNTLY AIR TEMPS IN THE M40S...EVEN U40S AT CHO WHERE THERE IS A BETTER THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. ON THE OTHER HAND DWPTS ARE GNRLY IN THE TEENS...AND W/ A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH N OF LAKE SUPERIOR A STEADY FLOW OF DRY AIR WL OCCUR. SO ALONG THE LN FM DC-BALT BLV THERE WL BE A PD OF SVRL HRS OF SNOWFALL BTWN 2 AM AND 10 AM...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THERE COULD BE ADVSRY LVLS REACHED (2") ISN'T HIGH. REGRADING THE "HOW RARE IS THIS" QUSTN...ON 4/7/2007 DC RCVD .4"...AND IN THE LAST 50 YRS FM MID MAR TO LATE APR DC HAS RCVD 0.1" OF MORE 15 TIMES...SO A 30% CHC. BALT HAS HAD THAT OCCUR 26 TIMES IN LAST 50 YRS...SO ABT A 50% CHC OF OCCURRENCE. PRVS DSCN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Well, RNK went 2-4 here-- 4 very possible higher elevations but I doubt I see that in here at 1k feet. This thought is reflected in their snow map as well--so we are on the same page. NAM has quite the burst of snow here Midnight to 3 or so-- something like that. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 REGRADING THE "HOW RARE IS THIS" QUSTN...ON 4/7/2007 DC RCVD .4"...AND IN THE LAST 50 YRS FM MID MAR TO LATE APR DC HAS RCVD 0.1" OF MORE 15 TIMES...SO A 30% CHC. BALT HAS HAD THAT OCCUR 26 TIMES IN LAST 50 YRS...SO ABT A 50% CHC OF OCCURRENCE. PRVS DSCN... mid-march.. that's adding almost 2 weeks of snow chances that have already passed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Climo isn't important at this stage. sure it is. if this was feb 1 we might get the whole qpf as accum. plus if you want a more accurate "how rare" you dont include 2 weeks which have already passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 when you look at an "honest" radar, you realize how hopeless it is for DCA/BWI, and especially BWI http://www.atmos.alb...e/radarloop.htm Don't agree with you...models are showing anywhere from .1-.2 for DC...slide the storm due east and we get our .1-.2. That simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 sure it is. if this was feb 1 we might get the whole qpf as accum. plus if you want a more accurate "how rare" you dont include 2 weeks which have already passed. Why wouldn't we get everything as accumulating QPF now? Lows have been in the 20's two nights in a row, so ground temps are somewhat cold. Its also falling at night. So if its JAN 30th, and we have the exact same "scenario" ground/air temps in all aspects, how would climo factor in then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Dewpoint at 10 here, will be fun to watch how fast temps drop tonight before onset of whatever it is we are going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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