MD Snow Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 both nam and gfs starting to pop another disturbance to our south on monday evening...interesting...snow...melt...than more snow...melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 the north trend folks sure busted (it would seem) Yeah, but at least it has stopped the south trend. Interesting how the GFS wants to diminish the precip qpf east of the mountains. It does this often and sometimes under does what makes it into the Piedmont and coastal plain. 12Z is a perfect example. DCA and south should see 1-2 inches. EZF and west maybe 2-4. South of that BL issues become the problem towards RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Yeah, but at least it has stopped the south trend. Interesting how the GFS wants to diminish the precip qpf east of the mountains. It does this often and sometimes under does what makes it into the Piedmont and coastal plain. 12Z is a perfect example. DCA and south should see 1-2 inches. EZF and west maybe 2-4. South of that BL issues become the problem towards RIC we're going to need some help getting 1-2" in DC imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Decided to shrink down the snow totals a bit for the 1-2" range on the NE edge and for the 2-4" range for the eastern and southern areas. The 4-8" actually expanded a bit, but got shifted further south. It will be a battle of boundary layer temperatures and thicknesses tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 we're going to need some help getting 1-2" in DC imo. 20:1 ratios are always assumed in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Not much changes from the 9am map from LWX Wakefield map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z NAM came north, 12z GFS wanted to come north, and maybe lost too much QPF in a transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 how did the 09z SREF turn out? Can't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z euro got juicy in southern half of va. 0.50" now to lyh to emporia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z euro got juicy in southern half of va. 0.50" now to lyh to emporia .05 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 12z euro got juicy in southern half of va. 0.50" now to lyh to emporia How much is that snow for us midlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looking at latest RUC (though not the greatest outside of 8 hrs), the NMM, and the ARW I would say the DC area may have a period of like 3 hrs between 7am and 10am of light snow.Really don't see how anyone is going to see much snow before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 How much is that snow for us midlo South VA is the shizzle for heavy snow all winter - Tonight's storm is no exception. Get those shovels ready - You're gonna need 'em bad - Some places around RIC will see 8 inches. Dave Tolleris WILL get 6 to 9 inches of snow in his BY I will be happy with my usual, customary coating of snow flurries on my car top before changeover to regular steady rain by 7am Sunday. The mountains of SW VA are going to get cut off from the rest of the world for a week - Stock up on foodstuffs NOW!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 CWG forecast map and some Wes comments http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/light-snow-accumulations-from-spring-storm/2011/03/24/AFnwMMdB_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Rather expansive area of clouds, you can see some decent convection in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks like the advisories were expaned much farther east well into C VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 WWAs extended eastward to just south of fairfax/ loudoun. I don't expect anything over an inch, except if this comes in further north than expected, which has happened countless times, such as that late feburary storm which dropped 6" in southern pa instead of giving us 4-8". Currently doesn't look like it will, but gonna watch it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Looks like the advisories were expaned much farther east well into C VA. It's almost 50 degrees in Richmond, not trying to rain on your parade. I'm just thinking that the warmth will affect the thermal gradient somehow and maybe influence the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I could still see it edge slightly north but the low is scheduled to track way south for this area. I think initially the models were just overdoing the northern end and as we get closer they are picking it up better. .5"+ would be success for DC imo. Hopefully we at least get the dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corriewf Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 CWG forecast map and some Wes comments http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/light-snow-accumulations-from-spring-storm/2011/03/24/AFnwMMdB_blog.html There is no way I can trust that forecast... 55 bass?!?!? Noooooo wayyyyyy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 RIC proper is not under the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It's almost 50 degrees in Richmond, not trying to rain on your parade. I'm just thinking that the warmth will affect the thermal gradient somehow and maybe influence the storm track. 3pm 48 ric 46 dc i'm sure that 2 degrees will play in brutal to the storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 There is no way I can trust that forecast... 55 bass?!?!? Noooooo wayyyyyy! yeah lol that did seem a bit high but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 3pm 48 ric 46 dc i'm sure that 2 degrees will play in brutal to the storm track Well, we all know that DC gets steaming hot, most surrounding locations are in the lower 40's. I just have a hard time seeing how this thing misses anyone south of PA border, with significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 3pm 48 ric 46 dc i'm sure that 2 degrees will play in brutal to the storm track It was in the 50s the day before we got a inch on 4/7/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 3pm 48 ric 46 dc i'm sure that 2 degrees will play in brutal to the storm track dews are low and may drop a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Well, we all know that DC gets steaming hot, most surrounding locations are in the lower 40's. I just have a hard time seeing how this thing misses anyone south of PA border, with significant snows. the low is too far south... places near the pa border want it in virginia probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 the low is too far south... places near the pa border want it in virginia probably. It will be interesting to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 It will be interesting to watch it. at least till basketball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 WWAs extended eastward to just south of fairfax/ loudoun. I don't expect anything over an inch, except if this comes in further north than expected, which has happened countless times, such as that late feburary storm which dropped 6" in southern pa instead of giving us 4-8". Currently doesn't look like it will, but gonna watch it anyways. It would be sweet if the heavier snows fell more north and plastered N VA with about 7 inches ------- BUT, we all know that Southern VA has been the shizzle all winter for the heaviest snows in the Mid Atlantic. I'll be satisfied with my 37 flurries - Just enough to coat my car top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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