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March 27 SpringBlizzard Discussion


Ji

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6z nam and uro have zero qpf...while Gfs has over .25...wth????

GFS is still disorganized as it comes over the mtns, but it had a nice ribbon of high RH on the mid levels...it actually kind of dryslots RIC. However, it did that here as well and it ended up being horrifically wrong, so be aware. SREFs also have a 3hr hit between 09z and 12z.

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Model verification: GFS has a better handling on the timing and intensity of the precip. over the Southeast compared to the NAM, which was too slow and weaker. Neither model properly handled the convection over MO/AR/OK/KS (too late on initiation and hence lower totals). Both models have captured the location of the low rather well (central TX/OK border), but are too weak by a couple of mb. EDIT: 12z obs make the low a little weaker, so NAM and GFS are just about spot-on with current pressure.

Overall, the GFS seems to be doing better than the NAM in both the 00z and 06z runs.

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Well, if you don't need it, sure, send it up here.:)

46,41,41 the last three days for highs here. Far cry from the 76 and 78 of last week. I know you've already cut some grass a couple of times, but I can wait a few more weeks for that work to start.

I'll even pay the shipping :) . I like the snow, but that warmth before this change to cold had me craving for green. The flowers are falling off the pear trees now and leaves are popping out. I bet I will have a few shade trees in about a week.

1-3" in the forecast by Sunday morning. We're heading over to Cincy for a college tour so I'll miss it in mby...supposed to be some over there too though. :(

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I don't know about the the other NWS offices but Mount Holly is surprising bullish for their southern zones, going for high probability of accumulating snowfall. They did issue a hazardous weather outlook and noted potential for a snow advisory. Seems interesting enough, I think alot of people gave up on this.

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Exactly, It's not a good idea to pull your hair out over that model. It fools you by going to 84 hours but I find it useful only within 24 hours, most of the time.

And even with that-- I use it for the thermal profiles vs anything else. It has another round of snow at my place Monday nite...arrowheadsmiley.png

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Except when areas a hundred miles south are looking at 3-4 inches of snow.

Eh, I'm seeing alot BL issues down there and alot of last-minute trends that say that Fredericksburg area(and especially west) should be the jackpot area with DC getting in on an inch or more. Won't be surprised if you take with a grain of salt though because it sounds like hype.

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Improvement on the 12Z NAM for us NOVA folks. Nothing significant but playing catch up. Looking at Natl radar appears precip in MO is moving slightly north of due east. Need to keep that trend going as long as possible before the squash comes later tonight. Potomac River may be dividing line between something vs nothing.

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