mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 this year, it doesn't matter what they say I think they hit our one decent event pretty well but craped the bed with everything else either too high or too low of course, looking at the 18Z NAM through 36, it looks like they will be right on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z nam-- no major changes as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 So...which feature is forcing this so far south or is it a lack of amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 terrible up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z nam-- no major changes as I see it. Further south with qpf shield on the north end for sure. Bad for NOVA/DC. Worse for MD. But who the hell knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Further south with qpf shield on the north end for sure. Bad for NOVA/DC. Worse for MD. But who the hell knows. models were probably overdoing the northern edge. the low is pretty far south for us to do well up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 CLOWN MAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 CLOWN MAPS I can't help but think how much (if that verified verbatim) it would suck to be living in extreme northern NC near that lake in southern VA. Surrounded by green then nothing where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 right on the .01 line! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p24_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I can't help but think how much (if that verified verbatim) it would suck to be living in extreme northern NC near that lake in southern VA. Surrounded by green then nothing where you are. It does all of this while depicting an inch of snow near the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 DT"s map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 NAM is terrible, precip only gets to DCA and temps actually get into the 40-42 range on sunday per E-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 DT"s map lol how do you have a 2-4" area next to a <1" area? no way im getting 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Good thing Marcus isnt on here, somehow someway he would still claim up to half a foot up there in northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 DT has my BY right on the D/E Line ------ NO WAY I get 4 inches of snow. I'll see three flurries to maaaaaaybe a coating on my car top. Besides - Ground temp is 41 degrees. Don't even worry about the roads. It's LATE MARCH Love to have some of what he's been smoking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Worst that can happen in Dale City - slushy half inch on the grass, melts fast as highs Sunday hit 47 degrees - some slush on car tops. Roads wet. You live in those mountains though ----- You just go right ahead and steal more of our snow -- Go on - Steal our rightful snow and hog it all, enjoy your 8 inches and your winter wonderland. You might as well come and steal my patented snow shovel while you're at it - You're gonna need my shovel to dig out of all that fluffy white goodness. I'll make it easy for ya - I'll leave my snow shovel right out on my front porch - You can't miss it - Only snow shovel on a front porch in Glendale - says 'Jeb's snow shovel' right on the handle But just wait. Wait til next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 im trolling dt Wxrisk.com Fair enough Ian..I may shift it south at 1st CALL map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 so high 36.9 today and Winterstorm Watch 1 county south... guess this is March Lion after winters Kitten weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 DT"s map And I thought MY call was bullish... his is just ludicrous. Would have to max out the QPF and get all snow (EDIT: snow that sticks!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Side note... this is DT's First Guess map. He's going to make two more maps before the event? It starts in 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 hpc gives dc some loving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z gfs...trended towards the nam a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18z gfs...trended towards the nam a bit lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 fugetabout it anyone north of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Everything this winter has been hell to track. Even a "freebie" such as this is starting to bring us to toward the edge. Nothing has been easy this year and this has all of the markings of disappointing us all once again, sad to say. Let's see what the 0Z's have to say before we bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 EZF to SHD= WINNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 hpc gives dc some loving they're still pretty bullish.. hugging old gfs maybe? this map is nothing to get too worked up about as it's abot a 20% chance on their experimental maps, but their 1"+ and 2"+ odds are quite high given current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 they're still pretty bullish.. hugging old gfs maybe? Maybe using their Met degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Maybe using their Met degrees good post as usual yeoman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 looks to me like the last time DC had a high in the 30s as late as the 27th of Mar was 1955. EDIT: err, i guess that's the last time we were in the 30s ON the 27th.. brain fart. would be the latest 30s since 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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