tplbge Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Congrats Albany. it got pushed back a few days. Happens in weather. 8-12 sunday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 it got pushed back a few days. Happens in weather. 8-12 sunday now so that means boston's thursday snow is a different storm? you should work for dt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 From that NYC thread this from tornadojay in response to a poster suggesting it (Sunday/Monday thing) would be further north than modeled: Well... it will depend a lot on the positioning of a blocking low near the 50/50 position. I have to say.. as was similar a few weeks ago, the spaghetti plots are in really good agreement at that range and it looks like most the ensemble members suggest a more southern solution at this point... lots of time to go though, but I've been amazed as of late in the consistancy in ensemble members in longer ranges. From just prior to that in that thread from agc: Euro for day 6 storm. Has Philly around .50" and DC about .85". All levels, including surface are frigid.Brushes us with about .10" of qpf. Amazing setup with big highs to our north and 50/50 in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 it got pushed back a few days. Happens in weather. 8-12 sunday now Seriously, how's the Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Seriously, how's the Euro look? biggest snow of the yr -- congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Seriously, how's the Euro look? How would cherry blossoms hold up under half a foot of heavy wet snow? The timing on this kind of system kinda blows. It's spring now. Spring, dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 How would cherry blossoms hold up under half a foot of heavy wet snow? The timing on this kind of system kinda blows. It's spring now. Spring, dammit. dont waste too much time on d6-7 theoreticals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 dont waste too much time on d6-7 theoreticals. Not my first rodeo, Ian, and I won't. In fact, I am in do.not.want land with this kind of system right now. Even when it misses, it still looks unseasonably cold, which really is not ideal for what I want, which is warmer spring temps. Not that weather gives a damn what I want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah ION, its not NE Balti Zen's first rodeo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 the snow would fall on my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Seriously, how's the Euro look? looks like a 6-10 storm lol. temps low 30's with 850 plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah ION, its not NE Balti Zen's first rodeo I don't get the ION stuff, and I mentioned the other part because I really don't need a lecture on the probability against a big snow this late. I am guessing I am the butt of inside jokes now between you and Ian over something or another? Not sure why, but okay, if that makes you happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I don't get the ION stuff, and I mentioned the other part because I really don't need a lecture on the probability against a big snow this late. I am guessing I am the butt of inside jokes now between you and Ian over something or another? Not sure why, but okay, if that makes you happy. i wasnt giving you a lecture. im just not sure many realize that we literally DONT get big snow anymore this late even though you can pull up daily records into April with OK snow totals. if you look close you see that most are in the 1800s and earlier 1900s. that's not to say it's impossible but we all know how often we get our hopes up in this range during January only for it not to work. so, it's nice to have some activity in this forum but we need to be realistic for now. there is no inside joke.. people started calling me ion for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i wasnt giving you a lecture. im just not sure many realize that we literally DONT get big snow anymore this late even though you can pull up daily records into April with OK snow totals. if you look close you see that most are in the 1800s and earlier 1900s. that's not to say it's impossible but we all know how often we get our hopes up in this range during January only for it not to work. so, it's nice to have some activity in this forum but we need to be realistic for now. there is no inside joke.. people started calling me ion for some reason. Okay, thanks. I wasn't sure what I had typed that was so funny. As for the other...eh. I am more comfortable that this won't happen for a lot of other reasons than your thesis that it won't happen because "it doesn't happen anymore". I would guess the right storm where everything goes right can make it snow and accumulate still around DC at this timeframe (rare as those conditions might be), unless you are making a climate change argument as to there being no way those conditions could manifest themselves anymore in this part of the mid-atlantic. And, again, this time of year, I am certainly not "rooting" for snow. In fact, again, would be far happier to see warmth modeled. But it's weather, and possibly interesting weather, so I guess I am interested in why the Euro (and kinda the GFS) are showing this. Blocking I guess is the short-form answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I don't get the ION stuff, and I mentioned the other part because I really don't need a lecture on the probability against a big snow this late. I am guessing I am the butt of inside jokes now between you and Ian over something or another? Not sure why, but okay, if that makes you happy. No inside joke, I just thought the statement "not my first rodeo" was funny. It made me giggle, so I had to repeat it. i wasnt giving you a lecture. im just not sure many realize that we literally DONT get big snow anymore this late even though you can pull up daily records into April with OK snow totals. if you look close you see that most are in the 1800s and earlier 1900s. that's not to say it's impossible but we all know how often we get our hopes up in this range during January only for it not to work. so, it's nice to have some activity in this forum but we need to be realistic for now. there is no inside joke.. people started calling me ion for some reason. Correction - OEM did then it became a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Okay, thanks. I wasn't sure what I had typed that was so funny. As for the other...eh. I am more comfortable that this won't happen for a lot of other reasons than your thesis that it won't happen because "it doesn't happen anymore". I would guess the right storm where everything goes right can make it snow and accumulate still around DC at this timeframe, unless you are making a climate change argument as to there being no way those conditions could manifest themselves anymore in this part of the mid-atlantic. im among the "skeptics" on the AGW train but something has happened to late season snow not only here but across the majority of the northern hemisphere. sure it's possible but the data of recent says it's not very possible. i dont want to go down the road to an argument over climo but the past is still a good guide to the future and the recent past says it's not going to snow in late march into april more than conversationally -- unless you like the "we're due" argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That's cool. I do get that climo screams NO to this kind of storm, setting aside climate change stuff (and I don't want to go down that road, I just wasn't sure if that was what you were basing your certainty on). Perhaps a better inquiry (god knows one I can't take the time to figure) is how rare it is for blocking to show up this late in the season and see if a strong block correlates to these freak late systems. Dunno. But I guess it would by why there would even be a remote chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That's cool. I do get that climo screams NO to this kind of storm, setting aside climate change stuff (and I don't want to go down that road, I just wasn't sure if that was what you were basing your certainty on). Perhaps a better inquiry (god knows one I can't take the time to figure) is how rare it is for blocking to show up this late in the season and see if a strong block correlates to these freak late systems. Dunno. But I guess it would by why there would even be a remote chance at something. im sure a block makes it more likely as we get most of our big snows during blocking. but a block at the end of march if not equal to one in february obviously. plus we had plenty of blocking in the beginning of the season and still got plenty screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 im sure a block makes it more likely as we get most of our big snows during blocking. but a block at the end of march if not equal to one in february obviously. plus we had plenty of blocking in the beginning of the season and still got plenty screwed. It will snow in dc again at some point in our lifetime. Figure out a way this can happen instead of saying it has no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 im sure a block makes it more likely as we get most of our big snows during blocking. but a block at the end of march if not equal to one in february obviously. plus we had plenty of blocking in the beginning of the season and still got plenty screwed. The weekend sort'a looks interesting...as you point out a March block isn't as exciting from a cold perspective as is a February, but it's more fun from a moisture potential. Just a quick review of snowfalls after 3/21 at IAD (only 47yr of data): 15 winters, 32%, saw at least a trace after the 21st, 13 or 28% on or after the 26th, 11/23% on or after April 1st and 5/11% on or after April 8th. For at least 1" we're down to 8/17% for post March 21st, 7/15% on or after the 26th, 5/11% for April 1st and 2/4% for the 8th or later. For those March months with measurable snow between 3/21 and 3/27 it looks like 56.5% saw another measurable snow on or after 3/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The weekend sort'a looks interesting...as you point out a March block isn't as exciting from a cold perspective as is a February, but it's more fun from a moisture potential. Just a quick review of snowfalls after 3/21 at IAD (only 47yr of data): 15 winters, 32%, saw at least a trace after the 21st, 13 or 28% on or after the 26th, 11/23% on or after April 1st and 5/11% on or after April 8th. For at least 1" we're down to 8/17% for post March 21st, 7/15% on or after the 26th, 5/11% for April 1st and 2/4% for the 8th or later. For those March months with measurable snow between 3/21 and 3/27 it looks like 56.5% saw another measurable snow on or after 3/30. well there's a difference between measurable snow and what the euro is showing obviously. im certainly not arguing it CANT snow at all. i have not looked at the period remaining specifically but i have covered it as part of the "end of season" snow http://voices.washin...n_snowfall.html and april specifically http://voices.washin...rarer_than.html also of course several have documented the fact that mod/strong ninas seem to have some tail-end love as far as snow goes. but i think we hit our thaw and everything else that comes along with it a few weeks late. the avg high next weekend is 60.. so we need a high temp departure of nearly 30 degrees to have significant hopes during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 well there's a difference between measurable snow and what the euro is showing obviously. im certainly not arguing it CANT snow at all. i have not looked at the period remaining specifically but i have covered it as part of the "end of season" snow http://voices.washin...n_snowfall.html and april specifically http://voices.washin...rarer_than.html also of course several have documented the fact that mod/strong ninas seem to have some tail-end love as far as snow goes. but i think we hit our thaw and everything else that comes along with it a few weeks late. the avg high next weekend is 60.. so we need a high temp departure of nearly 30 degrees to have significant hopes during the day. Yet...it has happened. If the data I have is correct IAD saw 7.6" with 18:1 ratios back on 3/31/64. You're right about the late season events and enso correlation. I've got ALL the snowfalls for RIC, IAD, DCA, BWI, PHL, NYC and BOS in a spreadsheet along with region 3.4 temps and various other indexes...it's a pretty impressive correlation. I can repost the data if you don't have, and want, that full set as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 JB is talking about it from WMAR too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yet...it has happened. If the data I have is correct IAD saw 7.6" with 18:1 ratios back on 3/31/64. You're right about the late season events and enso correlation. I've got ALL the snowfalls for RIC, IAD, DCA, BWI, PHL, NYC and BOS in a spreadsheet along with region 3.4 temps and various other indexes...it's a pretty impressive correlation. I can repost the data if you don't have, and want, that full set as well. yeah but that's 50 years ago. if you look at any trendline for late season snow it is a downward slope. i mean it's tough since the late-season sample is small anyway (even during the heyday). it is somewhat academic of course, and i'd be personally skeptical of any threat in this range even in our prime snow period. the set you mention might be interesting to look at if you would like to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 JB is talking about it from WMAR too, lol I saw that. If he thinks flakes will fall, he'll post about it and everyone thinks he is great for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I saw that. If he thinks flakes will fall, he'll post about it and everyone thinks he is great for posting it. facebook weather followers are generally pretty dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 the snow would fall on my birthday Congrats! I hope you get to view it from the picture window in your home and not some commuter bus on 267 West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I saw that. If he thinks flakes will fall, he'll post about it and everyone thinks he is great for posting it. He also had to toot his own horn, not a fan of that. But it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Springtime snows used to be fairly common out this way, but they've gone away here too. Some notable events at MRB: 4/3-5/1987: 4.5" 3/29/1984: 8.0" 4/9/1982: 3.0" 4/6/1971: 4.0" 4/12/1959: 4.0" 3/29/1942: 12.0" 4/28/1928: 10.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 He also had to toot his own horn, not a fan of that. But it is what it is But don't forget, "If we get snow this week, I have been saying it was likely for a few weeks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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