chris87 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 hey there's no reason to get bent out of shape.... a basic understanding of MOS would help you understand in what scenarios it may break down, it's 2-meter temperature forecast for Sunday is a prime example of where you want to be skeptical For example: if the 12z GFS has +18C H5 temperatures for tomorrow with a westerly wind, fully mixed we'd get to near 90F, but its so anomalous for March, MOS would likely come in several degrees under because of its weight toward climo. it's ok to learn something every once and awhile, even if someone is "shouting" it from a "pedestal" lol... i dont need to know who made it or what algorithms are in it to know how to use it. i look at it every day and have for about 4 yrs. i know pretty much all of its biases. don't need a degree or a red tag to comprehend that. come off your pedestal. i just commented on what is shows VERBATIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 hey there's no reason to get bent out of shape.... a basic understanding of MOS would help you understand in what scenarios it may break down, it's 2-meter temperature forecast for Sunday is a prime example of where you want to be skeptical For example: if the 12z GFS has +18C H5 temperatures for tomorrow with a westerly wind, fully mixed we'd get to near 90F, but its so anomalous for March, MOS would likely come in several degrees under because of its weight toward climo. it's ok to learn something everyone once and awhile, even if someone is "shouting" it from a "pedestal" I work closely with several mets and am fully aware of it's bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 yes.. and no. it's not terribly often you see an anomalous event with -30 departures. i'd say there is very little chance dc stays at or below freezing on sunday. In addition: Record min. high for the 26th and 27th is 34F. The latest record min. high at or below freezing is 28F on 3/24. DCA staying at 32F or below on Sunday isn't impossible, but it would set a new record for the daily min. high and it would also set a record for the latest high of 32F or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Kinda hard to tell with the GGEM.. but I would surmise we are 5-7mm... which is around 0.20 QPF in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 In addition: Record min. high for the 26th and 27th is 34F. The latest record min. high at or below freezing is 28F on 3/24. DCA staying at 32F or below on Sunday isn't impossible, but it would set a new record for the daily min. high and it would also set a record for the latest high of 32F or less. i dont doubt it will be cold.. quite cold. i'd run in the middle of mos and say the 0z NAM which had 20s in DC for Sunday. which pretty much settles into the mid-30s in general around d.c. in fact in my editing night last night i lowered a mets forecast toward that range from higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Who woulda thunk that in late March, we got the cold, but not the moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Who woulda thunk that in late March, we got the cold, but not the moisture... which is why I said in early JAN that this seemed like one of those winters when it would find a way not to snow regardless of how it would in any other year I'm getting too old for this...bring back the 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Who woulda thunk that in late March, we got the cold, but not the moisture... Don't make me say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 whats the euro say for ric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 All this debate over how to use forecasting products, yet you guys can't even tell the public what the weather will be in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It's not winter anymore, so any reference the season of the same name is no longer relevant. Right? Eff this...I want a nice, warm weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 whats the euro say for ric? Its not out quite yet, daylight savings time pushed the timing of it back, its initializing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 thru 30 the euro is similar or a shade south of 0z out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 at 42 snow moving through va.. still looks a shade (maybe 25-50 miles south) on contours.. which probably isnt great news for dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 thru 30 the euro is similar or a shade south of 0z out west The 0Z Euro really stunk too Considering the Euro caught on first to the crushing PV that screwed SNE a few days ago, I still think this is in doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 gets .1 to just about D.C... .05 line moved south a bit in northern md. less qpf in va, but still up to .25"+ for bottom third generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 ric 0.25" -4c 850 entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The 0Z Euro really stunk too Considering the Euro caught on first to the crushing PV that screwed SNE a few days ago, I still think this is in doubt it's pretty similar in the end.. minor differences here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 gets .1 to just about D.C... .05 line moved south a bit in northern md. less qpf in va, but still up to .25"+ for bottom third generally. So Id assume KBWI is probably between .05 and .1? Considering I think that some flakes may be wasted due to dry air and lack of accumulation, That would be lucky to get a coating up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 So Id assume KBWI is probably between .05 and .1? Considering I think that some flakes may be wasted due to dry air and lack of accumulation, That would be lucky to get a coating up this way. yeah.. prob within a hundredth or so of 0z. maybe .07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 yeah.. prob within a hundredth or so of 0z. maybe .07? Why is the thread titled spring blizzard for 0.07 qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Why is the thread titled spring blizzard for 0.07 qpf? Because Ji made the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 ric 0.25" -4c 850 entire event that wont cut it buddy. Surface temps are a disaster for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 that wont cut it buddy. Surface temps are a disaster for you i wonder who in central va will get the 8" dt forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 So... it's the Euro vs GFS battle again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18Z runs will be critical to my final thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 i wonder who in central va will get the 8" dt forecast jb said 6-12 for Shenandoah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 18Z runs will be critical to my final thoughts remember the feb 22 storm when the best lift was 50-100 miles north of where the models had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 18Z runs will be critical to my final thoughts throw out your highest event then take an average of the rest.. go from 0 to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 remember the feb 22 storm when the best lift was 50-100 miles north of where the models had it there was a feb 22 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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