BethesdaWX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 fringe job on 00z GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 00Z GFS is pretty crappy, Barely any precip north of DC and not even much in Central VA.....NAM is most likely overdone with QPF, its a known bias outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 00Z GFS is pretty crappy, Barely any precip north of DC and not even much in Central VA.....NAM is most likely overdone with QPF, its a known bias outside of 48 hours. I think NAM is overdone Inside 48hrs, not outside (?) GFS is notorious for squashing storms. ECM, CMC, NAM vs GFS, SREF? My bias is at play too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 quote name='snownut' timestamp='1301007537' post='581519'] Out at my cabin tonight to turn the heat back on. Gotta pick up my daughter at Dulles on Saturday so will be stuck at the new VA house instead of here in WV where the accumulating snow odds go way up. Still satisfied with the surprise 5.5 " backend snow earlier this month when less than a mile away and 700 down there was no accumulation. This one may call for a Sunday morning snow run to the cabin? Jeb you up for a longer snow run chase? Bit of ice grains driving in 30 minutes ago. How about a MA snow dump for all on Sunday and then a nice comfortable April It is going to be really fun driving up RT 28 Sunday morning and watching the snow patches get larger as I hit Dulles then hit up RT 7. The RT 7 Skyway should be mighty picturesque with near 100% areal coverage of snow, then RT 9 will get very fun as I near those mountains. Maybe it will be ALL SNOW there!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Funny how all of the snow lovers are only talking about how the storm will fail... must be you're all looking to not get disappointed by another forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Funny how all of the snow lovers are only talking about how the storm will fail... must be you're all looking to not get disappointed by another forecast. Being so close or on a tight gradient is often not friendly. We need more north and not getting a lot. .15" over 6 hrs during the day won't accomplish a ton many spots. I wouldn't be shocked with a south move still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Funny how all of the snow lovers are only talking about how the storm will fail... must be you're all looking to not get disappointed by another forecast. more like the seasonal pattern with the reality of climo thrown on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 6Z GFS surprisingly positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 It is. And the clown map brings a few inches up to BWI/cent MD area, DC safer of course. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfssnow072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Out at my cabin tonight to turn the heat back on. Gotta pick up my daughter at Dulles on Saturday so will be stuck at the new VA house instead of here in WV where the accumulating snow odds go way up. Still satisfied with the surprise 5.5 " backend snow earlier this month when less than a mile away and 700 down there was no accumulation. This one may call for a Sunday morning snow run to the cabin? Jeb you up for a longer snow run chase? Bit of ice grains driving in 30 minutes ago. How about a MA snow dump for all on Sunday and then a nice comfortable April It is going to be really fun driving up RT 28 Sunday morning and watching the snow patches get larger as I hit Dulles then hit up RT 7. The RT 7 Skyway should be mighty picturesque with near 100% areal coverage of snow, then RT 9 will get very fun as I near those mountains. Maybe it will be ALL SNOW there!!!!!!!! Well Jeb with the current track a drive west out I-66 and then Rt 55 into WV may get you more snow. Certainly better elevation factor. 26.5 here this morning. We should all be enjoying winter's final dance, even if "she" is just "model" teasing us one last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 1-4" final call , elevation dependent as well. Dont think roadways will be an issue except for bridges and overpasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I think Richmond will be the jackpot on sunday prob around 3 inches on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I think Richmond will be the jackpot on sunday prob around 3 inches on the grass If I were a betting man, I think EZF will be the jackpot with better thickness...RIC may have issues with surface temps that would preclude jackpot status...just my two cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 If I were a betting man, I think EZF will be the jackpot with better thickness...RIC may have issues with surface temps that would preclude jackpot status...just my two cents There will definitely be some temp. issues once you get south of the DC metro... NAM shows a snow risk further south, but the snowfall accumulations could be lighter in central/southern VA into Delmarva compared to my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Stuanton- Waynesboro Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 From many of us on the northern va - md border, I've been hearing about suppression and being missed to the south. I can't remember that happening but once this winter, and that was the early Dec. clipper. Maybe I'm forgetting one, but the mid Dec snow originally looked to be a complete miss that made it north enough for a couple of inches, the early Jan miss was because the best features ended up north of where they were modeled, the late Feb disappointment was because the warm nose was too far north. I'm optimistic that this ends up with more precip north than what is currently modeled. I guess we'll see over the next 24 and how the models trend, but the GFS ensemble images are about as consistent as you could expect. There's only one member that shafts us. Now, after I said all this, watch it be the one that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 There was definitely more than one system that went to our south. It very well might not be the case here. It is maybe noteable that SREF has gone south most runs of late. Either way gotta hope things come in as early as possible. I still like up to about 1" IMBY for now... Tho I could certainly see less without much issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 0z Euro was south. About .1 to DC area. Looks like SREF last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 From many of us on the northern va - md border, I've been hearing about suppression and being missed to the south. I can't remember that happening but once this winter, and that was the early Dec. clipper. Maybe I'm forgetting one, but the mid Dec snow originally looked to be a complete miss that made it north enough for a couple of inches, the early Jan miss was because the best features ended up north of where they were modeled, the late Feb disappointment was because the warm nose was too far north. I'm optimistic that this ends up with more precip north than what is currently modeled. I guess we'll see over the next 24 and how the models trend, but the GFS ensemble images are about as consistent as you could expect. There's only one member that shafts us. Now, after I said all this, watch it be the one that is correct. Didn't the Feb. 9-10 storm this year stay really suppressed like this? I know BWI/DCA got a trace of snow, but think Norfolk got a few inches? I thought there were others too this year but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 There was definitely more than one system that went to our south. It very well might not be the case here. It is maybe noteable that SREF has gone south most runs of late. Either way gotta hope things come in as early as possible. I still like up to about 1" IMBY for now... Tho I could certainly see less without much issue. A little window dressing to remind us that is CAN snow in late March. No staying power this time of year unless the is an uber -NAO so it will be nice for a few morning photos. Measurable snow each month from dec-mar aint bad in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 There was definitely more than one system that went to our south. It very well might not be the case here. It is maybe noteable that SREF has gone south most runs of late. Either way gotta hope things come in as early as possible. I still like up to about 1" IMBY for now... Tho I could certainly see less without much issue. You may certainly be correct, but can you list them? I've got the one from early December, and I supposed you could count the Christmas Day snow, but certainly not the day after Christmas blizzard. Someone mentioned FEb 8-9, but I don't even remember that one, either way. So maybe you could jog my memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 You may certainly be correct, but can you list them? I've got the one from early December, and I supposed you could count the Christmas Day snow, but certainly not the day after Christmas blizzard. Someone mentioned FEb 8-9, but I don't even remember that one, either way. So maybe you could jog my memory? Not off the top of my head no but I do know for a fact there were several. A few didnt do much anywhere. The winter pattern was generally flat waves and storms that cranked when north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 9z SREFs bring 0.25 to DC, lots of spread in the members though...some cold/supressed, some warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Just put a bullet in this winter's head already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 looks like the new sref mean came back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 looks like the new sref mean came back north. Just about to post this. With memory comes fog, at least for me, but I do distictly remember the few events that did produce a little for us, that the trend was that 2 to 3 days out, the SREF's would dry up and then start to bring the precip back as we got closer to the event. The Jan 26 event this was especially true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Rooting for snow on the last weekend of March is like rooting for rain on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Just put a bullet in this winter's head already. Let's do that on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Rooting for snow on the last weekend of March is like rooting for rain on Christmas. Well, that's partially true. However, it WILL be cold. We can't change that, so we might as well get a little snow, just for the fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well, that's partially true. However, it WILL be cold. We can't change that, so we might as well get a little snow, just for the fun of it. Point taken, but it still feels wrong, especially when it's being tracked on days when the temps are in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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