das Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 this is the son of the Jan 30,2010 storm I'm holding you to that as well as the following two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 gfs slowed a bit.. brings the core through during the day in the dc area http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_084m.gif still pretty cold tho http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the dt threat looks supercharged this run http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192m.gif tho that is the 192 panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the apps get clocked.. pretty nice 500 track if it was jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 RASN forecast for Sat night and Sunday in N VA and DCA. I am definitely going on a snow chase Sunday morning into the higher elevations of VA and West VA - last call until Dec 2011 You don't have to go that far Jebman...my forecast is for snow in Bristow just 20 miles NW of you...I like where we are sitting right now in N VA....Further south might have more precip like EZF but could face mixing since the 540 line seems to run right through southern Prince WIlliam...I'd rather be north of that line in late March...but maybe I'm crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the dt threat looks supercharged this run http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_192m.gif tho that is the 192 panel. I will never take an April 1st threat seriously for cultural reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I will never take an April 1st threat seriously for cultural reasons. i just hope that's the pattern changer.. it might be. well really next week doesnt look that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Meaning pattern changer back to real spring sun and fun? I'm hoping April isn't a cold wet month. I always get nervous when late Feb through most of March are warm and boring. Seems like cold dreary Aprils follow. I'm an avid striper fisherman when trophy season opens in mid April. Sux being on the bay when it's 50, windy, and rainy. Season is only 3-4 weeks then the run is over so you have to go out no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Out at my cabin tonight to turn the heat back on. Gotta pick up my daughter at Dulles on Saturday so will be stuck at the new VA house instead of here in WV where the accumulating snow odds go way up. Still satisfied with the surprise 5.5 " backend snow earlier this month when less than a mile away and 700 down there was no accumulation. This one may call for a Sunday morning snow run to the cabin? Jeb you up for a longer snow run chase? Bit of ice grains driving in 30 minutes ago. How about a MA snow dump for all on Sunday and then a nice comfortable April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Where's Phin to announce "Warm/Wet or Cold/Dry"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Where's Phin to announce "Warm/Wet or Cold/Dry"? I do not need to say what you know so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Sooo.... what's the word on the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Sooo.... what's the word on the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Sooo.... what's the word on the 0z NAM Don't know about the NAM, but the new SREF mean ..... not gon doit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Don't know about the NAM, but the new SREF mean ..... not gon doit. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 link? It's the NCEP site, old version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Bob Ryan going with 1-3" Sat night into Sun am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Don't know about the NAM, but the new SREF mean ..... not gon doit. considering how they performed this year, I wouldn't jump yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 850's are colder this run, bad sign for a hard cut-off? I hope this one is a blip..looks like it should cut off further south, shiat. at 36, low over NE WY 1mb weaker, feature over TN is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Sweet suppression. Colder and drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Gross Compared to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 bad model readers above it's slower tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 And it's a slightly better phase IMO. You could see the signs of that starting at 48 hrs. Plus, the main shortwave seems slightly stronger at 500 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 bad model readers above it's slower tho Well the NAM has been somewhat faster than the GFS in today's runs-- maybe closing in on the timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 bad model readers above it's slower tho Hey I'm a great model reader Anyone heard of reverse Phsychology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Well the NAM has been somewhat faster than the GFS in today's runs-- maybe closing in on the timing? could be but slowing down is not that great imo. qpf is higher up here this run but all that light stuff during the day... we'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 could be but slowing down is not that great imo. qpf is higher up here this run but all that light stuff during the day... we'll see about that. This run is an improvement. Not able to access 2m temps yet, but 850's are cold. Precip looks better for most, and you're right, it seems to be slower. Be interesting to see the SREF members to see what caused it to be drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 When the NAM signals a sharp cutoff, it's usually right that there will be one. The location of that cut-off, though, is almost never what's depicted past 36 hours out on the NAM. Global models in the 12Z suite were pretty close to each other in the orientation of that maximum stripe, along with their looser precip gradients/fuzzy edges. It's not a bad sign that the NAM nudged a slight bit north-- other than that 6Z run overnight, this was the best burst of snow pre-dawn Sunday so far depicted on the NAM for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 can this be right? NAM says temps in the 20s during the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 tv just claimed a few inches of SNOW this weekend in northern virginia this is late March not December 5th besides - The ground is too mild - soil temps in the upper 40s - if snow falls in daytime - conversational snow, no big deal maybe a nanometer of slush the sun angle is pure MURDER - it's as bad for snow accums as the tsunami was for Sendai its almost early APRIL for krise sake - This aint New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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