mitchnick Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Is it sad that we're anxiously awaiting the 18z NAM on March 24th? or just sad that the question has to be asked? meh, at least this very late season action seemingly shortens the time between this nightmare winter and next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Is it sad that we're anxiously awaiting the 18z NAM on March 24th? this wont even be that 'fun' of a snow if the main part comes between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. ill probably wake up in time to see it melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 First Call... CHO Dusting Winchester 1-2 inches Martinsburg 1 inch Hagerstown Dusting IAD 1 inch DCA Trace BWI Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 or just sad that the question has to be asked? meh, at least this very late season action seemingly shortens the time between this nightmare winter and next winter Was this winter really that bad? It was better in our area than any forecast predicted. Climo says we should have gotten 3 inches and loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Was this winter really that bad? It was better in our area than any forecast predicted. Climo says we should have gotten 3 inches and loved it. Given what we expected going in, probably not. What makes people hate this winter is how it seems that everywhere else but our region had a blockbuster winter. If we hadn't missed 12/26 and the end of Feb storm panned out, it would have been a darn good winter, especially for a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Given what we expected going in, probably not. What makes people hate this winter is how it seems that everywhere else but our region had a blockbuster winter. If we hadn't missed 12/26 and the end of Feb storm panned out, it would have been a darn good winter, especially for a Nina. basically that, but being soooo close to getting soooo much more also makes it especially disappointing this really didn't act like a NINA for anyone along the east coast except for the snow hole of DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 hr 66 nam just wow for central/northern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 When was the last time we had all of these together in a Strong La Nina/westerly QBO? -an extended thundersnow with 30mph winds, some places near a foot. -Persistant Cold -Windstorms with gusts of 65-75mph -Severe storms/threats in NOV, FEB, & MAR -Nice ZR event -75 degree days when its uber-boring Now add in potential Late MAR snow, and what would you think regarding what we were stacked up against during the beginning of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 heck of a gradient up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 EZF roadtrip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 nam is pretty well inline with the euro now especially when you shave off its excess qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 heck of a gradient up here one more north shift(50 miles and were gold). You would like to think were in good shape but when we need a north trend, we usually dont get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 total precip hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I'd rather be on the Fringe Line at this point rather than the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 one more north shift(50 miles and were gold). You would like to think were in good shape but when we need a north trend, we usually dont get it well i usually go with the north trend but have been hesitant here so it will probably happen.. im kind of in a slump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 well i usually go with the north trend but have been hesitant here so it will probably happen.. im kind of in a slump this is the son of the Jan 30,2010 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 this is the son of the Jan 30,2010 storm could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 We just need to keep an eye on the 850 low track. The 6z "hit" was with the low going through central VA. Both 12z and 18z want to take it right through the southern tier of VA. edit - GFS/Ukie in the north camp Euro w/ the NAM down south. GGEM kind of in the middle, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 We just need to keep an eye on the 850 low track. The 6z "hit" was with the low going through central VA. Both 12z and 18z want to take it right through the southern tier of VA. edit - GFS/Ukie in the north camp Euro w/ the NAM down south. GGEM kind of in the middle, I think. GGEM was a hit when I checked the maps hourly... mod snow for about 6-8 hrs C VA into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 RASN forecast for Sat night and Sunday in N VA and DCA. I am definitely going on a snow chase Sunday morning into the higher elevations of VA and West VA - last call until Dec 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 total precip hr 72 Ugh @ that QPF gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Ugh @ that QPF gradient. If it were snow.. it would be something like trace to 1" at BWI... 2" at DCA... 3-4 EZF if 10:1 ratios on that run (18z NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 First Call... CHO Dusting Winchester 1-2 inches Martinsburg 1 inch Hagerstown Dusting IAD 1 inch DCA Trace BWI Trace Thank you very much - I'll be in that vicinity on Sunday. Last snow chase of the Mid Atlantic season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 i like t-1 imby for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 GGEM was a hit when I checked the maps hourly... mod snow for about 6-8 hrs C VA into MD Yeah, I can't find a 850 low track for the GGEM, but you can pretty much figure it out from the other maps and that looks like a good scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 So, once again, we are left clinging to precip amounts? Story of the winter. Looking at the SREFs, they appear to be skewed in the direction of the ETA members. Most of the others have a pretty good amount of precip for us. If the trend continues, we'll be on the outside looking in as the best precip slides south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 On the flip side, most of the GFS members show good precip, and the HPC seems to like the chances of heavy snow being further to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 On the flip side, most of the GFS members show good precip, and the HPC seems to like the chances of heavy snow being further to the north. maybe that will roust Wes from his fishing hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Copypasta from the blog: A suppressed storm system will move through the region Saturday into Sunday as a vort. max travels east-to-west over northern VA into MD. The SFC low is progged to move across the Carolinas, which will be favorable in getting a layer of below-zero temperatures at the SFC. However, it should be noted that the winds in the mid to upper levels will be out of the WSW across the southern parts of the region, which could allow for a nose of above freezing temperatures to move into southern WV and VA. This will cause mixing issues with sleet and freezing rain that will hurt the overall snowfall totals across the southernmost parts of the region. The wintry mix will extend into northern NC before changing over to all rain in central NC. I am siding with the GFS snowfall contouring for now since it seems like it has a better handle on the mid-level temperatures and the warm nose that will move through the southern parts of the region. I also did account for a slight northerly trend in the eastern parts of the region, which is consistent with trends that yesterday's storm experienced further north into NY and southern Canada, where accumulations occurred a good distance further north than anticipated. Risks: A northern trend could bring the 1"+ totals into southern PA, and a colder solution as depicted on the NAM could bring the rain/snow line a bit further south towards the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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