mitchnick Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 ask anyone in NE thread how the 72hr NAM did with yesterday's event I don't know what's going to happen this weekend, but I do know the NAM doesn't have it right either my gut says stick with climo and from what Ian posted, the Euro does just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Im betting on a south trend...NAM did trend south from 06z-12z so did euro last night....Maybe too negavtive of an NAO? I've got a good cushion to my north-- with CHO gettiing .8QPF and all snow. That's 50 miles or so. I like where I'm sitting, but that north trend always finds away-- even with the NAO -- up to the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 ask anyone in NE thread how the 72hr NAM did with yesterday's event I don't know what's going to happen this weekend, but I do know the NAM doesn't have it right either my gut says stick with climo and from what Ian posted, the Euro does just that What did the EC SHow in the 6 hour increments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 ask anyone in NE thread how the 72hr NAM did with yesterday's event I don't know what's going to happen this weekend, but I do know the NAM doesn't have it right either my gut says stick with climo and from what Ian posted, the Euro does just that im not sure the euro goes with climo as it puts snow to our south mainly.. though overall it is a much less robust event. "jackpot" would probably be like 2-3" somewhere if lucky. then again when throwing out these nam clown maps etc i think we need to assume some of it wont accumulate as shown. even if you get a base overnight once the sun rises things are going to be trickier unless you're getting pounded with snow. the closer we get the more we can throw out climo at least in some regards. i usually like a north trend but not sure about that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Surprisingly, Richmond could get a half-foot of snow on Sunday and not set their daily snowfall record (6.3" - 1947). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 tho i guess the nam puts most of the precip down overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Surprisingly, Richmond could get a half-foot of snow on Sunday and not set their daily snowfall record (6.3" - 1947). now that would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 now that would be funny Even funnier that I live in NVA and am hoping for a north trend on March 24th with the models trending south and colder...last kick in the groin from 'ol man winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 What did the EC SHow in the 6 hour increments? idk I canceled accuwx pro last week figuring there was no need to pay for another month I still feel that way to be honest the only thing good that can come out of this is my belief that in some years, a late season storm suggests a good following winter, but there's no real science in that theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 At this point I'm happier sitting in northern va for this storm. Precip is relatively close, and gives us some room for the almost inevitable north move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I'm almost ready for someone to analyze each frame as it comes in(12z GFS), doesn't feel like a Spring snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I'm almost ready for someone to analyze each frame as it comes in(12z GFS), doesn't feel like a Spring snowstorm. What does a spring snowstorm feel like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 gfs is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 What does a spring snowstorm feel like? Brief period of wet snow followed by rapid melting of the snowcover. The NAM is probably too wet obviously but I'll be impressed if any location receives more than 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 gfs is cold Highs in the 20s on Sunday for the colder burbs? GFS looks decent for DC and Baltimore. VA still the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Highs in the 20s on Sunday for the colder burbs? GFS looks decent for DC and Baltimore. VA still the jackpot. Not bad...would prefer all snow and less QPF than being on the R/S waiting for the change which never seems to happen in my neck of the woods..and we have bit of wiggle room with 850s and still we get mostly snow...I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I don't want this to sound like a weenie question, but does snow ratios changes as we head into March and April? Like with the GFS giving 0.2 QPF of snow at DCA (thereabouts) and upper 20s for 2m temps and 850s in the -6c range... would it still be 10:1? Or would it be more 7-8:1 because of how late it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Low temps Monday morning could be frigid...850s are around -9/-10 for the cities, clear skies, snowcover?...if the winds are calm...what are the record lows on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I don't want this to sound like a weenie question, but does snow ratios changes as we head into March and April? Like with the GFS giving 0.2 QPF of snow at DCA (thereabouts) and upper 20s for 2m temps and 850s in the -6c range... would it still be 10:1? Or would it be more 7-8:1 because of how late it is? The snowgrowth conditions would be favorable for "normal" ratios, but I think the warm ground (etc...) would make it tough to accumulate. So I'd wager if there is accumulation, the ratios will seem low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Been in meetings all morning. Liking the look of the NAM actually at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 The snowgrowth conditions would be favorable for "normal" ratios, but I think the warm ground (etc...) would make it tough to accumulate. So I'd wager if there is accumulation, the ratios will seem low. Perhaps one should also factor cloud cover and daily minimums, it looks like will be cloudy or mostly cloudy leading up to the event due to the constant warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the early week storm isnt even close to snow anymore on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Low temps Monday morning could be frigid...850s are around -9/-10 for the cities, clear skies, snowcover?...if the winds are calm...what are the record lows on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the early week storm isnt even close to snow anymore on the gfs Another possible severe or thunderstorm event? The cold air supply becomes really weak after this storm, I'd rather have it bottled up in the arctic in order to help the sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the early week storm isnt even close to snow anymore on the gfs Yup, goes well west now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Low temps Monday morning could be frigid...850s are around -9/-10 for the cities, clear skies, snowcover?...if the winds are calm...what are the record lows on Monday? DCA 21 (1894) BWI 21 (1982) IAD 18 (2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 For BWI, record low max temp on Sunday is 33 and record low Monday is 21. I think both of those could be threatened...might be close. Dulles' record low on Monday is 18, which is probably out of reach, but the record low max temp on Sunday is 40...which could be shattered. DCA is the same as BWI on Monday, but 34 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Another possible severe or thunderstorm event? The cold air supply becomes really weak after this storm, I'd rather have it bottled up in the arctic in order to help the sea ice. probably not with the setup shown. with the euro still cutting to the south it might just be a blip anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 For BWI, record low max temp on Sunday is 33 and record low Monday is 21. I think both of those could be threatened...might be close. Dulles' record low on Monday is 18, which is probably out of reach, but the record low max temp on Sunday is 40...which could be shattered. DCA is the same as BWI on Monday, but 34 on Sunday. IAD's record low max is the one really in jeopardy. In '01, they were 38° on the 26th and 41 on the 27th with 850s from -10 to -15. No snowcover and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Anybody got the NAM's clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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