yoda Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:31 PM, AppalachianWX said: 12z NAM IAD .11 EZF .38 BWI .01 DCA .12 RIC .68 SHD .35 LYH .73 Not as bad as I first thought.. of course those N of DCA are SOL with this run here. A minor shift north, 50-75 miles and we would all do well... but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 someone dc area south could pick up like dusting-.5" or so tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:42 PM, Ian said: someone dc area south could pick up like dusting-.5" or so tonight Tonight? from what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:46 PM, AppalachianWX said: Tonight? from what? there's a little wave coming thru later. it might be a little too warm to get to the higher end but someone should at least get a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS is not budging from a further north 850 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:17 PM, PhineasC said: Might as well end the winter how we started it. Does any model spin up a low after nailing RIC and swing it around to hit NJ up to SNE? See 0z model runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:48 PM, Ian said: there's a little wave coming thru later. it might be a little too warm to get to the higher end but someone should at least get a dusting. Nice, congrats Relic Hunter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 12z GFS showing DC some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 looks a little drier thru 42 on the northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:53 PM, Ian said: looks a little drier thru 42 on the northern edge Looks fine through 54. Bigger burst predawn than before on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:53 PM, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS showing DC some love. Still need that north trend by another 30-60 miles though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 GFS looks good. As usual, the NAM should catch on at about 24 hours out. 00Z will be huge ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Maybe 0.3"-ish for IAD and DCA. 0.2" to 0.25" for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:57 PM, gymengineer said: Looks fine through 54. Bigger burst predawn than before on the GFS. looks ok.. tho you must have better eyes than i do. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_048m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_054m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:59 PM, MN Transplant said: Maybe 0.3"-ish for IAD and DCA. 0.2" to 0.25" for BWI. Looks like it, at least a solid .25 for the entire region. more to the south of Md though into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 qpf contours did sink south a bit on the northern edge .. not sure much difference in the dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:59 PM, Ian said: looks ok.. tho you must have better eyes than i do. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_048m.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_054m.gif LOL.. you're right.. I was comparing to yesterday's sequence of runs on the GFS where nothing substantial got in here before 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Southern virginia special RIC to LYH sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 3:59 PM, MN Transplant said: Maybe 0.3"-ish for IAD and DCA. 0.2" to 0.25" for BWI. A lil bit of omega comes through at 48 hrs (12z SUN)... so perhaps a brief period of heavier snow? 850s are -6c EZF and north.. so we are good there. 2m temps probably 28-32 across the area and it doesn't look like we make it above freezing the entire day (perhaps a 33/34 max somewhere in S MD/C VA area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 4:33 PM, yoda said: A lil bit of omega comes through at 48 hrs (12z SUN)... so perhaps a brief period of heavier snow? 850s are -6c EZF and north.. so we are good there. 2m temps probably 28-32 across the area and it doesn't look like we make it above freezing the entire day (perhaps a 33/34 max somewhere in S MD/C VA area). MOS is mid-30s to around 40 for highs. staying near or below freezing would be more of an accomplishment than getting snow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 4:36 PM, Ian said: MOS is mid-30s to around 40 for highs. staying near or below freezing would be more of an accomplishment than getting snow imo. Interesting. Does MOS run off the 2m temps the GFS puts out on the model page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 you should know better than to use MOS verbatim in an anomalous event. On 3/25/2011 at 4:36 PM, Ian said: MOS is mid-30s to around 40 for highs. staying near or below freezing would be more of an accomplishment than getting snow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 MOS is purely statistical and can break down when the atmosphere is anomalously cold (or warm) On 3/25/2011 at 4:38 PM, yoda said: Interesting. Does MOS run off the 2m temps the GFS puts out on the model page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 4:38 PM, yoda said: Interesting. Does MOS run off the 2m temps the GFS puts out on the model page? not sure. it's not a raw output though i dont believe.. there are additional calculations done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 4:40 PM, chris87 said: you should know better than to use MOS verbatim in an anomalous event. yes.. and no. it's not terribly often you see an anomalous event with -30 departures. i'd say there is very little chance dc stays at or below freezing on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 well I was only commenting on the use of MOS, not if we stay at or below freezing (GFS is 32/ NAM is 33 for highs on Sunday, direct model output), so 33 to 36 looks like a safer forecast. and with all due respect, you don't instill much confidence in your use of MOS when you appear to not even understand how it is computed or where it comes from. http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=model-output-statistics1 On 3/25/2011 at 4:42 PM, Ian said: yes.. and no. it's not terribly often you see an anomalous event with -30 departures. i'd say there is very little chance dc stays at or below freezing on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 On 3/25/2011 at 4:47 PM, chris87 said: well I was only commenting on the use of MOS, not if we stay at or below freezing (GFS is 32/ NAM is 33 for highs on Sunday, direct model output), so 33 to 36 looks like a safer forecast. and with all due respect, you don't instill much confidence in your use of MOS when you appear to not even understand how it is computed or where it comes from. http://amsglossary.a...put-statistics1 lol... i dont need to know who made it or what algorithms are in it to know how to use it. i look at it every day and have for about 4 yrs while forecasting for CWG. i know pretty much all of its local biases. don't need a degree or a red tag to comprehend that. come off your pedestal. i just commented on what is shows VERBATIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 this thread is called spring blizzard?? lol thats just funny. more like a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 This was the 12z RGEM at 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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