Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I think Steve (Andy's boss) verified in ALB and maybe several degrees past 60 so credit to him.... Here we peaked at 57 before noon and hovered in the mid 50's most of the rest if the day. But ALB and the CD gets much more of the downslope effect than me. How warm did you get yesterday, I know andys boss had 60 earlier this week, did that come to fruition? Almost 80 here! Mostly sunny 48 on our way to the beautiful 50's!! Another classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Some of us just love snow.... ANY snow, cold fresh air, the beautiful white landscape and snow laden trees, the fun of any winter wx event and overachieving even it means 4 inches versus 2 inches. It is all fun! I hate mild wx, bugs, mud, the strong oppressive sun angle etc.... And I also take a certain perverse pleasure in watching all the 'normal' people b**ch and gripe about snow in late March and April. LOL and saying I told you so. You are right about me not being truly multi-dimensional when it comes to wx. I can't help it ...just find winter wx much more compelling. My interest is about 2/3rd winter wx and 1/3rd the rest. I like tropical cyclones also.... Hey, I love snow just as much... I just don't obsess about it though. Frankly, I sensed an extended period of winter relaxation way in the beginning of February. It's a good point though that Ginx brought up that any outside observer may not be considering that this is relative to the thread and season in question. I will be honest about one thing, for me, March is a winter month, period. Yes we get these weird years in there where something obscene, like 1998 happens, when you get a 3-day heat wave from the 29th through the 31st or whatever... But over the decades, no - it's a winter month, regardless of the Meteorological definition of March 1. That distinction is correct in my mind, HOWEVER, not for our latitude. It is very much true along 35 N... But NCEP has to consider the whole nation, so it makes a good deal of sense to consider the spatial element and begin this crazy season in the deep south, and move it N as the month progresses.... Probably March 15 near D.C., us around the 30th...that sort of thing... Well, that puts us pretty squarely in winter until the end of the month up this way. Having said all this, yes - for winter weather enthusiasts, you've just been the proud recipient of a brutal cosmic dildo event over the past 30 or so days.... Heh, some years you get the bear, some years the "bare" gets you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This is a La Nina Spring though....we could see the current NAO collapse, relax a bit and then see a new -NAO rebuild in Middle April. to torment you into May..... Yea I here you. You know what made last spring special - for me anyway - was how the -NAO persistence began to break down at the end of February, and as the blocking collapsed S, it took 2 weeks to do it (in which time we had the 3 big rain events), but then an interesting thing happened. The block more than less got absorbed into the west Atlantic ridge medium. From that point forward the ridge would do these 1-2 week oscillations from the western OV to the more Bermuda position, back and forth. That set up the summer pattern, that modality in mid spring, such that our weather ranged from hot and dry, to warm and humid with convection depending on which end of the oscillation we were in. I have noticed this year to year as I have gotten older and now build a bank of actual experiences that if you take the direction of changing pattern in mid spring, the ensuing summer tends to end up there. If you are transitioning into a cool cut-offy (fun word) pattern, you end up with cool pool aloft and convection like 2008 and 2009. If you are transitioning into a Bermuda ridge like pattern, you tend to end up hot that summer. I haven't studied this in any statistical verification but I think it would be worth it to try. In any event, it will be interesting for me in about 2 weeks where the current arriving -NAO goes... to see where the block begins to evolve as we head into mid spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm sure the airport has wifi so I'll report in. It could be, but I would guess maybe a delay at the worst. Might be a good weenie drive to compare your area at 1000' and ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Well, it doesn't come across that way Ginx. Sorry, it doesn't. I introduced a Met buddy to this site recently and he said after a couple of days that he wasn't interested because it didn't really get into Meteorology so much as this snow talk. I was embarrassed as someone that has spent time delivering analytical discussions for the forum in the past, and then wondering what I have been contributing for. I do see your point though that this is a winter thread. Perhaps taking a snap shot of the posting behavior in July might differ - but I suspect a lot of the dialogue will shift to winter outlooks instead. We'll see. You're pissing into the wind but I do agree with you. I've just come to accept the fact that the pursuit of finding snow in every pattern is what this is all about. The post volume during some of the big rain events vs snow events demonstrates that clearly. Not a huge deal but like you said it's skewed so heavily to cold/snow pursuit I know of at least one pro, maybe the same gal, that said the same thing. I am hoping for more snow. I'd like to see a nice 6-12" storm. At the same time I'd think models are overdoing cold at least in so far as daily temps on sunny days. Much like we saw a month ago when we consistently ended up 4,5,7 degrees warmer than expected. Today's high in Boston was 54, same as here. Temps dipped before rising back to absolutely normal temps for 3-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This is a La Nina Spring though....we could see the current NAO collapse, relax a bit and then see a new -NAO rebuild in Middle April. to torment you into May..... No shizzle man! But come on - it won't just be me if THAT happens. The entire month of May 2005 was a shroud of mist and NE gales because of something like that and I don't mean that figuratively - it was from May 5th to June 5th. It got so bad it was hard to even imagine/conceive the weather could be a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This is a La Nina Spring though....we could see the current NAO collapse, relax a bit and then see a new -NAO rebuild in Middle April. to torment you into May..... We said that last year too and it didn't work out and spring was great. No doubt we are flipping the other way for 7-14 days. But it's a gargantuan battle for mother nature to produce a Plethora of snow from 3/20 onwards in NYC Pvd hartford and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 OK once to May 1 - I'll root for the end to the - NAO. Yep May 2005 was ugly. We were just preparing this property for the horses and putting up fencing against the clock. One day I recall it was like 43F for a high with wind swept rain all day in middle May... Even I was ready to cry uncle. No shizzle man! But come on - it won't just be me if THAT happens. The entire month of May 2005 was a shroud of mist and NE gales because of something like that and I don't mean that figuratively - it was from May 5th to June 5th. It got so bad it was hard to even imagine/conceive the weather could be a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You're pissing into the wind but I do agree with you. I've just come to accept the fact that the pursuit of finding snow in every pattern is what this is all about. The post volume during some of the big rain events vs snow events demonstrates that clearly. Not a huge deal but like you said it's skewed so heavily to cold/snow pursuit I know of at least one pro, maybe the same gal, that said the same thing. I am hoping for more snow. I'd like to see a nice 6-12" storm. At the same time I'd think models are overdoing cold at least in so far as daily temps on sunny days. Much like we saw a month ago when we consistently ended up 4,5,7 degrees warmer than expected. Today's high in Boston was 54, same as here. Temps dipped before rising back to absolutely normal temps for 3-19. Looks like a perfect week at SR for goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You're pissing into the wind but I do agree with you. I've just come to accept the fact that the pursuit of finding snow in every pattern is what this is all about. The post volume during some of the big rain events vs snow events demonstrates that clearly. Not a huge deal but like you said it's skewed so heavily to cold/snow pursuit I know of at least one pro, maybe the same gal, that said the same thing. I am hoping for more snow. I'd like to see a nice 6-12" storm. At the same time I'd think models are overdoing cold at least in so far as daily temps on sunny days. Much like we saw a month ago when we consistently ended up 4,5,7 degrees warmer than expected. Today's high in Boston was 54, same as here. Temps dipped before rising back to absolutely normal temps for 3-19. This (bold) is also a yearly bias it would seem. MOS products seem to always bust low on sunnier/ish afternoons on a west wind in particular, regardless of whether a CAA is under way, or the air mass is static. Quite intuitively the cause would have to be the extreme low level inability to resolve the 2 to 50 meter temperatures at the bottom of the planetary boundary layer, when solar irradiance annually is increased. What probably needs to happen in an ideal sense is that the BL needs to be split into 2 distinct layers, the top part being the Ekman layer and the bottom being a surface layer - but there are no tools that can effectively resolve such an immense complexity at that interface at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Well I need the snow by the 28th....I fly to TPA that day. Then I don't return until the 5th.... Who knows maybe this pattern will still be hanging on for my return. Yeah no doubt I'll be sitting in FL on the net tracking it if you all get a snow storm after next monday. We said that last year too and it didn't work out and spring was great. No doubt we are flipping the other way for 7-14 days. But it's a gargantuan battle for mother nature to produce a Plethora of snow from 3/20 onwards in NYC Pvd hartford and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 You're pissing into the wind but I do agree with you. I've just come to accept the fact that the pursuit of finding snow in every pattern is what this is all about. The post volume during some of the big rain events vs snow events demonstrates that clearly. Not a huge deal but like you said it's skewed so heavily to cold/snow pursuit I know of at least one pro, maybe the same gal, that said the same thing. I am hoping for more snow. I'd like to see a nice 6-12" storm. At the same time I'd think models are overdoing cold at least in so far as daily temps on sunny days. Much like we saw a month ago when we consistently ended up 4,5,7 degrees warmer than expected. Today's high in Boston was 54, same as here. Temps dipped before rising back to absolutely normal temps for 3-19. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VIVSHOQboo&feature=related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 No shizzle man! But come on - it won't just be me if THAT happens. The entire month of May 2005 was a shroud of mist and NE gales because of something like that and I don't mean that figuratively - it was from May 5th to June 5th. It got so bad it was hard to even imagine/conceive the weather could be a different way. 06? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This (bold) is also a yearly bias it would seem. MOS products seem to always bust low on sunnier/ish afternoons on a west wind in particular, regardless of whether a CAA is under way, or the air mass is static. Quite intuitively the cause would have to be the extreme low level inability to resolve the 2 to 50 meter temperatures at the bottom of the planetary boundary layer, when solar irradiance annually is increased. What probably needs to happen in an ideal sense is that the BL needs to be split into 2 distinct layers, the top part being the Ekman layer and the bottom being a surface layer - but there are no tools that can effectively resolve such an immense complexity at that interface at this time. Agreed. I think bottom line theres cold to produce snow in the right situation but plus 10 departures to the cold side are more unlikely/not happening if it's sunny. Sunday will be a good example....not sure what mos had but I'm guessing 35-40 regionally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 We said that last year too and it didn't work out and spring was great. No doubt we are flipping the other way for 7-14 days. But it's a gargantuan battle for mother nature to produce a Plethora of snow from 3/20 onwards in NYC Pvd hartford and Boston. Scott and I were just mentioning this to one another. Joe D'aleo released a blog recently discussing ...well, proving really, that the ENSO took a back seat to the AO/NAO over the last two seasons; much of this goes with that... There may be something to SSWless winters and the ending AO/NAO leading into mid and late spring that correlates to summer patterns. As we head from April 15 to June 15, the flow everywhere relaxes and the wave lengths shrink. Teleconnectors have far less correlation... the gradients become so weak in general that there aren't really any in situ pattern drives. Which one of those Newtonian physical definitions was it, not 2. Maybe 1 or 3, where "an object in motion will stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force". That definition is applicable in mid to late spring... whereas the last known pattern influence sticks heading into mid summer (or one related to) because there are no new forces acting on the system when the summer doldrums kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 06? I'm not sure what happened in 2006...But I definitely know that 2005 was a skull rape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Scott and I were just mentioning this to one another. Joe D'aleo released a blog recently discussing ...well, proving really, that the ENSO took a back seat to the AO/NAO over the last two seasons; much of this goes with that... There may be something to SSWless winters and the ending AO/NAO leading into mid and late spring that correlates to summer patterns. As we head from April 15 to June 15, the flow everywhere relaxes and the wave lengths shrink. Teleconnectors have far less correlation... the gradients become so weak in general that there aren't really any in situ pattern drives. Which one of those Newtonian physical definitions was it, not 2. Maybe 1 or 3, where "an object in motion will stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force". That definition is applicable in mid to late spring... whereas the last known pattern influence sticks heading into mid summer (or one related to) because there are no new forces acting on the system when the summer doldrums kick in. Last year was interesting because we saw the Nina pattern taking over as the ENSO SST's trended downward. I remember some were debating that we would go into La Nina, but when the atmosphere starts adjusting to a certain climatological pattern, it's hard to adjust in the opposite direction. We saw the se ridge develop, soil moisture beginning to dry out down south....all signs of a Nina pattern emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Hood is blocked off its time to tap the kegs and scour the snakes from our yards. Sunshine dancing around the landscape as pints of guiness get poured down our throats, enjoy this beautiful day everyone!! Looks like a gem tomorrow too! Kids are begging for some home run derby, c~ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You're pissing into the wind but I do agree with you. I've just come to accept the fact that the pursuit of finding snow in every pattern is what this is all about. The post volume during some of the big rain events vs snow events demonstrates that clearly. Not a huge deal but like you said it's skewed so heavily to cold/snow pursuit I know of at least one pro, maybe the same gal, that said the same thing. I am hoping for more snow. I'd like to see a nice 6-12" storm. At the same time I'd think models are overdoing cold at least in so far as daily temps on sunny days. Much like we saw a month ago when we consistently ended up 4,5,7 degrees warmer than expected. Today's high in Boston was 54, same as here. Temps dipped before rising back to absolutely normal temps for 3-19. I wouldn't make it sound like it's about finding snow in every pattern. Sure some joke around and call for snow in the crummiest patterns..but I think we do a good job on saying whether or not the pattern sucks. Think about this region and its geographical location. Snow is really what excels in this area..so it's not hard to see that New England as a whole gives birth to snow enthusiasts. I mean, I wouldn't expect to find a thread started about how 8C/KM lapse rates and 0-1KM shear of 300-400m2/s2 will lead to the risk of long track tornadoes..or something like that. I thought the epic March rains of last year were discussed very well. I'm sure of May 2006 occurred again, we would have the same disco. I have a slight flood fetish, but mostly due to anomalous nature of the pattern that brings these floods to sne. Of course heavy rains don't necessarily inspire excitement for many like heavy snow does, but that's the way it is for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I wouldn't make it sound like it's about finding snow in every pattern. Sure some joke around and call for snow in the crummiest patterns..but I think we do a good job on saying whether or not the pattern sucks. Think about this region and its geographical location. Snow is really what excels in this area..so it's not hard to see that New England as a whole gives birth to snow enthusiasts. I mean, I wouldn't expect to find a thread started about how 8C/KM lapse rates and 0-1KM shear of 300-400m2/s2 will lead to the risk of long track tornadoes..or something like that. I thought the epic March rains of last year were discussed very well. I'm sure of May 2006 occurred again, we would have the same disco. I have a slight flood fetish, but mostly due to anomalous nature of the pattern that brings these floods to sne. Of course heavy rains don't necessarily inspire excitement for many like heavy snow does, but that's the way it is for most locations. i get as excited about a 100 degree heat wave as much as you get excited about 2 feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GFS gives ORH 2 maybe 3" it seems. Even BOS would get a little, but lower levels are tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Lock and load it folks. I expect Euro to come in even colder than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 i get as excited about a 100 degree heat wave as much as you get excited about 2 feet of snow You get fired up for the big ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 A little bump north on Wed-Thu too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You get fired up for the big ones too. especially in early july '10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You get fired up for the big ones too. 100 degree heat waves and 2 feet of snow both qualify as "big ones" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 A little bump north on Wed-Thu too. hopefully i can manage a sleet to rain event instead of what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Cold, raw, cloudy windy day.. nice out there 41..heavier jackets required. Winter's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 A little bump north on Wed-Thu too. Nice hit for CT on Thursday. 3-5 for Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 A little bump north on Wed-Thu too. AWT..gonna be a biggie for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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