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Winter returns with a vengeance thread again


Damage In Tolland

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Timing? I've been out of it... I'm driving NYC to BOS from about 1-5 pm tomorrow. Just wet roads by then from HFD north?

Yeah I would think roads are just wet almost everywhere by 3 or 4pm when you get into N CT and C MA if you are coming back via the pike.

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after he blew a major blizzard back in 05' I don't listen to him much...he literally had 1-3" while there was a blizzard warning in effect...I just didn't understand and said to myself " I am going to go to school so i can be a better forecaster than him"

If you are disregarding the man's opionion because he has proved fallible, especially within this particular industry, then perhaps you should be going to school for more than wx. :lol:

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I'm certainly weary of a lighter snow that may only accumulate an inch or so, but I think that type of scenario is rapidly becoming the exception rather than the rule at this point. I think forecasts for a coating or less in the CP are also probably in trouble...esp N of the pike into Ray's area.

Yes....final call: 1-3" of cement.

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Probably gives me like .4".....I'll take that...just want a shot @ 3".

Congrats on 4-5".

The duration still has me a bit conservative. It could snow really hard for awhile but it won't last more than a few hours, so if it doesn't come in as hard, then we'd probably be hard pressed to break 2".

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I know this isn't SNE, but do you think we start as snow down here tonight, Will? The 0z GFS gives me like .15" QPF before 850s go above 0C, but would there be other mid-level issues? Any sneaky warm layers?

I think you are probably skunked in the boundary layer there. 900mb temps above 0C by 12z. You might get lucky and try to get some evap cooling for a brief period, but it would be over taken pretty quickly.

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GFS is pretty far north with the mid-week system but its quite disorganized. It does look like some advisory snow potential there, but I'd like it better if we saw the more defined system again. It was pretty warm too getting sleet at least to the MA border at its peak.

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I think you are probably skunked in the boundary layer there. 900mb temps above 0C by 12z. You might get lucky and try to get some evap cooling for a brief period, but it would be over taken pretty quickly.

I'd love to pick up an inch in a brief burst, don't have high expectations but might stay up to see what happens. The 0z GFS is much colder than the 0z NAM at 850mb, and the radar does look good for my area with some heavy banding currently over Central PA...this might be like a typical WAA/SW flow event that arrives earlier than expected, which would be good since the 850s are going to rise as we approach morning. NWS has a mix of snow and sleet here with a low of 35F, so it would be hard to stick, but I don't know how small differences in topography and urbanization might influence it since that's always a big deal in this area.

The downtown is currently at 38.2/30, very marginal.

Do you agree the event is moving in quickly Will? Could we sneak in an inch before it warms at 12z?

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GFS is pretty far north with the mid-week system but its quite disorganized. It does look like some advisory snow potential there, but I'd like it better if we saw the more defined system again. It was pretty warm too getting sleet at least to the MA border at its peak.

I'd take it.

Lets hope the EURO is n, too.

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I'd love to pick up an inch in a brief burst, don't have high expectations but might stay up to see what happens. The 0z GFS is much colder than the 0z NAM at 850mb, and the radar does look good for my area with some heavy banding currently over Central PA...this might be like a typical WAA/SW flow event that arrives earlier than expected, which would be good since the 850s are going to rise as we approach morning. NWS has a mix of snow and sleet here with a low of 35F, so it would be hard to stick, but I don't know how small differences in topography and urbanization might influence it since that's always a big deal in this area.

The downtown is currently at 38.2/30, very marginal.

Do you agree the event is moving in quickly Will? Could we sneak in an inch before it warms at 12z?

You might sneak some frozen in there...hard to say yet. You'll have a better idea over the next 2-3 hours as the radar fills in and the obs start lighting up over C NY and PA.

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And of course there is the blizzard on the GFS d8 which brings BOS to close to 100 inches...lol..

Lol...what a weenie run that is for that storm. That would be the biggest storm that late in the season since 1997. Its basically 1.5" of qpf mostly or all snow. Pipe dream right now, but its fun to look at on the maps and at least know the pattern can potentially support a late season bomb even if the chances of actual realization of one are fairly small.

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Lol...what a weenie run that is for that storm. That would be the biggest storm that late in the season since 1997. Its basically 1.5" of qpf mostly or all snow. Pipe dream right now, but its fun to look at on the maps and at least know the pattern can potentially support a late season bomb even if the chances of actual realization of one are fairly small.

Lol, doesn't the jump from 180 to 192 look a little suspicious?

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I see the HV from ALB down is uniformly running quite mild 37 in ALB to around 40 in the NYC area. Dew points are real low in any event....

I know this isn't SNE, but do you think we start as snow down here tonight, Will? The 0z GFS gives me like .15" QPF before 850s go above 0C, but would there be other mid-level issues? Any sneaky warm layers?

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