HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 WCVB's map... asleep at the wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Everyone thinks were getting a few sn showers here tomorrow. heavy heavy surprises for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I have a good feeling that this could be a nice little overachiever around here. Timing is good as snow comes in right around daybreak, so the BL will probably be upper 20s to near 30 - obviously not a problem. I could envision a brief burst of 1 to 2 inch per hour rates around here tomorrow morning at the height of the event as omega is looking quite strong out here. I think ALY is going to bust too low across much of western New England; hopefully the night shift gets a wind of this and expands the WWA southward. I'm calling for 4-5 inches here in Lenox. I could easily see a 6-7 inch lolly around 2K based on the 00Z NAM QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm certainly weary of a lighter snow that may only accumulate an inch or so, but I think that type of scenario is rapidly becoming the exception rather than the rule at this point. I think forecasts for a coating or less in the CP are also probably in trouble...esp N of the pike into Ray's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Anyone else read Tim Kelley's blog on NECN from earlier this evening? Then what happens to that Upper Low? It may retrograde (back westward) setting thestage for a powerful Nor'easter next week. That is what happened here inDecember, a North Atlantic Blocking retrograde resulted in our December26th blizzard. But this is not December, so something more like whathappened April Fool's 1997 may be in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm certainly weary of a lighter snow that may only accumulate an inch or so, but I think that type of scenario is rapidly becoming the exception rather than the rule at this point. I think forecasts for a coating or less in the CP are also probably in trouble...esp N of the pike into Ray's area. I think even TV mets were in spring mode lol... Will, will this be a parachute type sticky snow or those finer grains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm certainly weary of a lighter snow that may only accumulate an inch or so, but I think that type of scenario is rapidly becoming the exception rather than the rule at this point. I think forecasts for a coating or less in the CP are also probably in trouble...esp N of the pike into Ray's area. I wonder if Ray could end up getting amounts close to you, despite his elevation. Even I could get over an inch maybe almost two if that omega thump happens. I'm still a little nervous about non-accumulating snow here, but it's tough to ignore some of the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Anyone else read Tim Kelley's blog on NECN from earlier this evening? Then what happens to that Upper Low? It may retrograde (back westward) setting thestage for a powerful Nor'easter next week. That is what happened here inDecember, a North Atlantic Blocking retrograde resulted in our December26th blizzard. But this is not December, so something more like whathappened April Fool's 1997 may be in the cards That almost deserves triple buns just for mentioning the April Fool's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I wonder if Ray could end up getting amounts close to you, despite his elevation. Even I could get over an inch maybe almost two if that omega thump happens. I'm still a little nervous about non-accumulating snow here, but it's tough to ignore some of the data. Yeah I don't think it will be that huge of a problem in his area at the sfc. I'm sure it might be non-accumulating at the very onset, but once it goes moderate or heavy, it will stick fairly easily, the 925mb range is just too cold to keep it 34F at the sfc. QPF might be a bigger issue for E MA, the bigger thump of omega seems to be further west, but obviously it still gets everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That almost deserves triple buns just for mentioning the April Fool's storm Hey, I don't make the news, I just report it. He does like the idea of a parade of 4 storms making their way across the CONUS and winter being a long term visitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 When you leaving? 26.4F/19F My skiis are in the car... finally some real snow. That other stuff is a mess attm (but still way better than last year) End of the month. I have a good feeling that this could be a nice little overachiever around here. Timing is good as snow comes in right around daybreak, so the BL will probably be upper 20s to near 30 - obviously not a problem. I could envision a brief burst of 1 to 2 inch per hour rates around here tomorrow morning at the height of the event as omega is looking quite strong out here. I think ALY is going to bust too low across much of western New England; hopefully the night shift gets a wind of this and expands the WWA southward. I'm calling for 4-5 inches here in Lenox. I could easily see a 6-7 inch lolly around 2K based on the 00Z NAM QPF. I'll be at 2k from 7am on,I'll keep you posted. Sticking with a 4-6" snowfall here @1400'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah I don't think it will be that huge of a problem in his area at the sfc. I'm sure it might be non-accumulating at the very onset, but once it goes moderate or heavy, it will stick fairly easily, the 925mb range is just too cold to keep it 34F at the sfc. QPF might be a bigger issue for E MA, the bigger thump of omega seems to be further west, but obviously it still gets everyone. Not that I would expect it, but it's convective looking on the NAM. There is actually negative LI's pushing in towards se NY state tomorrow morning. Just a short but intense WAA burst moving in. At any rate, the soundings are very clod aloft like you said, so maybe it starts out 37/20 in eastern areas or something like that, but falls to maybe 32/31 once the good QPF comes. Should be a cool event and perhaps one that surprises some if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not that I would expect it, but it's convective looking on the NAM. There is actually negative LI's pushing in towards se NY state tomorrow morning. Just a short but intense WAA burst moving in. At any rate, the soundings are very clod aloft like you said, so maybe it starts out 37/20 in eastern areas or something like that, but falls to maybe 32/31 once the good QPF comes. Should be a cool event and perhaps one that surprises some if things go right. Thundersnow for someone??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks nice. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4" of slop tomorrow here in the valley if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Well I'm out, but good luck to those..especially Ray on west to Will and down to Kev/Ryan. I won't be home for the snow tomorrow, but hoping a blanket of white/slush is there to greet me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks nice. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4" of slop tomorrow here in the valley if things break right. Yeah it gets a little more interesting with each. Timing is better for you, perhaps counteracting any elevation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not that I would expect it, but it's convective looking on the NAM. There is actually negative LI's pushing in towards se NY state tomorrow morning. Just a short but intense WAA burst moving in. At any rate, the soundings are very clod aloft like you said, so maybe it starts out 37/20 in eastern areas or something like that, but falls to maybe 32/31 once the good QPF comes. Should be a cool event and perhaps one that surprises some if things go right. A lot is obviously going to depend on precip rates. If we get heavy snow for a couple hours, I can see the higher terrain actually falling below freezing and the CP getting around freezing. The 00z NAM has KBED going form 36F at 12z to 32F at 18z when the wall of precip moves in. If we don't get heavy precip rates, then the dynamic cooling will obviously not be quite as great and the lower areas especially might have the 34F snow that has a tough time accumulating. But given how deep the moisture is for a few hours, I'd expect a pretty good burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Thundersnow for someone??? It looked like a pocket of instability was nearby, but you can have snow be convective without thunder. I suppose I wouldn't rule it out, as there will be a 2-3hr period of very strong lift it appears, but I would not expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Enjoy tracking the overnights, folks. Hopefully the Boston media outlets show people what's possible. I'm outa here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice temp gradient on the NAM tomorrow. Spring is not too far SW...but that's as close as it gets in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 A lot is obviously going to depend on precip rates. If we get heavy snow for a couple hours, I can see the higher terrain actually falling below freezing and the CP getting around freezing. The 00z NAM has KBED going form 36F at 12z to 32F at 18z when the wall of precip moves in. If we don't get heavy precip rates, then the dynamic cooling will obviously not be quite as great and the lower areas especially might have the 34F snow that has a tough time accumulating. But given how deep the moisture is for a few hours, I'd expect a pretty good burst. Hopefully it gels together nicely over NY State around dawn. If the radar looks healthy when I get up, I would think it bodes well. If it looks banded and disorganized, then it might be a problem. We have a strong burst of WAA so that should help organize it I think, but we'll have to hope it's a healthy shot of precip moving into the BOS area, because 15DBZ's won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That lift really weakens overhead on the NAM and ETA. That's what I don't want to see, but what a bomb for Will down through CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Hopefully it gels together nicely over NY State around dawn. If the radar looks healthy when I get up, I would think it bodes well. If it looks banded and disorganized, then it might be a problem. We have a strong burst of WAA so that should help organize it I think, but we'll have to hope it's a healthy shot of precip moving into the BOS area, because 15DBZ's won't cut it. Given the magntiude of warm advection and nice mid level frontogenesis I think someone is going to get smacked tomorrow. With the ongoing convection over Michigan, however, I think where the best forcing sets up is a bit uncertain. Is it W CT/SE NY or SW NH? Either is on the table IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That lift really weakens overhead on the NAM and ETA. That's what I don't want to see, but what a bomb for Will down through CT. NAM rocks us. That probably is close to all snow in HFD with most of it occurring in 2 or 3 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Duration should be the big limiter in this event. It will be hard to get anyone above 4" with a short window for accumulation. Can't rule out some isolated higher amounts if everything works out, but most amounts should stay below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Well I'm out, but good luck to those..especially Ray on west to Will and down to Kev/Ryan. I won't be home for the snow tomorrow, but hoping a blanket of white/slush is there to greet me. WTF? No love for GC? Ok man, I see how it is. No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM rocks us. That probably is close to all snow in HFD with most of it occurring in 2 or 3 hours lol Yeah looks nice for you guys. The convection is what could throw a wrench into things as it may try and screw up the WAA..especially if it dives se, but it still looks like we have a nice theta-e push into SNE. Just something to watch, but I don't see it as a problem for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah looks nice for you guys. The convection is what could throw a wrench into things as it may try and screw up the WAA..especially if it dives se, but it still looks like we have a nice theta-e push into SNE. Just something to watch for now, but I don't see it as a problem for now. Yeah it's odd to see one of these storms moving in with convection flaring up over the Great Lakes. Not sure how this one turns out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Duration should be the big limiter in this event. It will be hard to get anyone above 4" with a short window for accumulation. Can't rule out some isolated higher amounts if everything works out, but most amounts should stay below that. Yeah we know how the dryslots love to fly in here with the mid level lows so far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 WTF? No love for GC? Ok man, I see how it is. No problem. Congrats on 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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