Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 With those t-storms over the Lakes might make for some dynamic stuff tomorrow WSW here, woot woot, lots of snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 MQE may be a good spot around here, locally. Too bad I have to work..it would be worth the weenie hike to the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 With those t-storms over the Lakes might make for some dynamic stuff tomorrow KLAN 202153Z 14010KT 2SM +TSRA SCT032CB OVC045 04/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if a good chunk of nrn ORH county gets 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm betting the s/w becomes a little better organized as we get closer to the mid week event, but as Scott said, we got some time to figure that one out. Tomorrow is definitely the more immediate concern because I think it could snow pretty heavily...can't rule out some spot 5-6" amounts in the highest terrain of N MA/SW NH and for out of SNE, S VT probably is likely to get those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Its looks like this was another GFS run initialized in Kevin's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Its looks like this was another GFS run initialized in Kevin's basement. I'm guessing you're referring to this? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_192m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 that would be nice I'm guessing you're referring to this? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_192m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I could see 6" in some spot if things are heavy enough and se stay cold enough. Very dynamic. I definitely think this has some bust potential on the high side in SNE... rather than the other way around. Speaking of dynamic, check out the 3-hour precip totals in excess of 0.6" QPF that moves through the southern Adirondacks tomorrow morning. That blast of QPF translates SEward towards the Berkshires/S.VT/Monadnocks in the next panel but with less QPF. In any event, if 0.6" QPF in 3 hours comes true, that's some surprisingly heavy snow for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah, GFS extends winter in NE until mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Its looks like this was another GFS run initialized in Kevin's basement. This may come across like a JI statement, but let the 18z GFS be right for once..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm betting the s/w becomes a little better organized as we get closer to the mid week event, but as Scott said, we got some time to figure that one out. Tomorrow is definitely the more immediate concern because I think it could snow pretty heavily...can't rule out some spot 5-6" amounts in the highest terrain of N MA/SW NH and for out of SNE, S VT probably is likely to get those amounts. I willing to bet it does come in a little better. Tip's Pacific relay fetish could happen with this, and it also helps seeing the ensemble mean a little more bullish than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if a good chunk of nrn ORH county gets 3-5" I think that's a pretty good forecast for that area right now... what is Winter Wx Advisory criteria? 4"? I bet they verify the 4" advisory (I'd assume it has to be a fairly widespread 4" and not just isolated spots to verify the advisory). It wouldn't even shock me if Kevin gets 3-4" at 1,000ft given some of these 3-hour QPF amounts coming out on the meso-scale models. The mesos are implying a 0.1"+ per hour QPF thumper for a few hours which is what you need to get accums in these marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 34/12, Ski and golf in the same day;Check. Wow at no snow in the Hudson Valley, yikes. Still, it was fun to hit the devil ball. However, golf is a distant second to skiing. That's why it's so great to see the WWA posted for the East Slope. Hoping for 4-6" and then more snow seems likely mid -Week. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This may come across like a JI statement, but let the 18z GFS be right for once..lol. I honestly don't even really care about the outcomes right now... its just so enjoyable to have like 4 events worth tracking over the next 10 days, starting with tomorrow's snow. Given the past couple weeks of boredom and knowing how not exciting April/May are, us weenies need to enjoy the next 10-14 days of tracking winter weather because after that, we're done till Oct/Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 big big spring more like it 34/12, Ski and golf in the same day;Check. Wow at no snow in the Hudson Valley, yikes. Still, it was fun to hit the devil ball. However, golf is a distant second to skiing. That's why it's so great to see the WWA posted for the East Slope. Hoping for 4-6" and then more snow seems likely mid -Week. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Its looks like this was another GFS run initialized in Kevin's basement. LOL... 120+ inches for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 34/12, Ski and golf in the same day;Check. Wow at no snow in the Hudson Valley, yikes. Still, it was fun to hit the devil ball. However, golf is a distant second to skiing. That's why it's so great to see the WWA posted for the East Slope. Hoping for 4-6" and then more snow seems likely mid -Week. Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. ... and then more snow seems likely a few days after that later next weekend. As if that's not enough, the past 6 runs of the GFS have indicated yet a 4th threat a few days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I honestly don't even really care about the outcomes right now... its just so enjoyable to have like 4 events worth tracking over the next 10 days, starting with tomorrow's snow. Given the past couple weeks of boredom and knowing how not exciting April/May are, us weenies need to enjoy the next 10-14 days of tracking winter weather because after that, we're done till Oct/Nov. I've been left with this empty feeling for a while now, so I'm hoping one of these produces...hopefully sooner rather than later. Just one last nice event and this winter can go in peace, and my soul left rested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm giving up on my dream of this not sticking on the roads/driveway. Bad driving and shoveling en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Sam and Birvine and Tippy are going to be absolutely miserable the next 30-45 days...much below normal temps, snowcover lasting into late April/..no spring warmth..nothing growing, nothing greening up..just cold and snowy holding hands with cold and dry...doe ci doe your partna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Sam and Birvine and Tippy are going to be absolutely miserable the next 30-45 days...much below normal temps, snowcover lasting into late April/..no spring warmth..nothing growing, nothing greening up..just cold and snowy holding hands with cold and dry...doe ci doe your partna It's just so awesome that we are entering a winter-like pattern on the first day of Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Sam and Birvine and Tippy are going to be absolutely miserable the next 30-45 days...much below normal temps, snowcover lasting into late April/..no spring warmth..nothing growing, nothing greening up..just cold and snowy holding hands with cold and dry...doe ci doe your partna Great skiing though. Peepers are out here again...34 degrees. Those are some confused frogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Snowouts on Opening Day on the 31st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Watch that 28th-30th event be the biggest snow producer of the year... Just eye-balling that synoptic output it is well over 2" liq equiv regionally. That's a system btw that has been persistently signaled, spatial-temporally also situated near the nadir of this new -NAO, and timing-wise also the nexus with a positive PNA. That is a partially phased scenario on this run, and I am waiting on a run at some point that bodily descends the SPV down for a full-on subsumed bomb. This has been hinted at several times since XMass this year but we seem to have too fast a flow in the southern stream and they tend to out run the N stream ; there's some magic ratio of speed relationship between the two streams that allows those ideal '78 dream machines to take place. Not sure a La Nina year is the year to do it, however. Yes the N teleconnectors have proven more dominant on driving the anomalies this cold season, but that says perhaps something about how the streams have tended to interact. Intensely speculative but the lack of slowed down full phased results this year seems to be speed phase being off between the N ans southern streams. Southern stream impulses have been entering the WC of N/A and leaving the MA in as little as 66 hours on a few occasions this year. Hard to allow the time to phase to take place with that kind of translation speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 There really 4 threats that could be considered reasonable...obviously the latter two are far enough out that you don't get too deterministic over them...but we have tomorrow (Mar 21), Mar 23-24, Mar 28-29, and then another somewhere around Apr 1st give or take a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 There really 4 threats that could be considered reasonable...obviously the latter two are far enough out that you don't get too deterministic over them...but we have tomorrow (Mar 21), Mar 23-24, Mar 28-29, and then another somewhere around Apr 1st give or take a day. These next 10 days may make up for the first 20 day disaster in a big big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Sam and Birvine and Tippy are going to be absolutely miserable the next 30-45 days...much below normal temps, snowcover lasting into late April/..no spring warmth..nothing growing, nothing greening up..just cold and snowy holding hands with cold and dry...doe ci doe your partna There he is... the Rev is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 These next 10 days may make up for the first 20 day disaster in a big big way It certainly could if the storms actually pan out. The threat is definitely there, but its still not too difficult to end up with under 6" out of all of this and the month would still be very poor if that happens. But there is quite a bit more upside than downside. We can't get any worse than what we had the first 20 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 It certainly could if the storms actually pan out. The threat is definitely there, but its still not too difficult to end up with under 6" out of all of this and the month would still be very poor if that happens. But there is quite a bit more upside than downside. We can't get any worse than what we had the first 20 days. Very true. At least there's something (actually a bunch of things) worth looking at on the models though... I think the tracking of a storm is a major source of enjoyment in this weather obsession we all have, so just knowing there are options on the table has certainly seemed to lift the mood in this forum. Optimism is spreading quickly and this will be our last chance to really weenie-out over winter weather for months and months. I just gotta say, kudos to the Rev for starting the "Winter returns with a vengeance thread".... he couldn't have been more right. Even if the snowfall doesn't exactly pan out, there's very little doubt that we are about to enter a period of fairly significant negative temperature departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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