HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Any lollies to 6"? Still thinking 2-3" here, and it might be gone by Thursday, but better than nuthin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Any lollies to 6"? Still thinking 2-3" here, and it might be gone by Thursday, but better than nuthin I'm thinking same thing here...and I still wonder if much of this is going to stick to the roads since this is during the daylight hours and the BL should be fairly "warm". Might have to break Will's snow measuring rule again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm thinking same thing here...and I still wonder if much of this is going to stick to the roads since this is during the daylight hours and the BL should be fairly "warm". Might have to break Will's snow measuring rule again . Yeah, I won't be home to measure until 5 or so after skiing a few turns after work. Hopefully my son can make an accurate reading when he gets home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 lol makes sense to me. I could see areas like Kevin getting 3 or 4 inches if things break right. Euro is damn cold. I'm putting the over/under here at about 2.5"...I'd probably put it at like 1.7" for Kevin's area but I can certainly see adding 2" to each total if we can snow heavily for a few hours. The difference between moderate snow and heavy snow will be larger than normal in determining the final accumulations. I think the antecedent airmass is pretty nice so we shouldn't have too much trouble getting to 32F pretty fast in the hills and accumulating fast...so I might lean toward the over. I think it will help that it probably wont be a 34-36F snow all morning where we are just really fighting the BL...the BL in this case is very cold between 900-925mb...won't take too much to bring that right down...esp in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah, I won't be home to measure until 5 or so after skiing a few turns after work. Hopefully my son can make an accurate reading when he gets home. Make sure to tell him that he needs to check for air pockets between the snow and grass, because that can sometimes inflate the measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 lol makes sense to me. I could see areas like Kevin getting 3 or 4 inches if things break right. Euro is damn cold. From your fingertips to God's ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Make sure to tell him that he needs to check for air pockets between the snow and grass, because that can sometimes inflate the measurement. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Make sure to tell him that he needs to check for air pockets between the snow and grass, because that can sometimes inflate the measurement. What grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 NAM looks like its squashes anything for later in the week. But...84h NAM, and all the fun comments that usually go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Fing Duke.. No business winning that game Thankfully heavy heavy snow is coming 2x this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This should be a nice little event for the Berks with a widespread 3-5". I really think ALY should extend the WWA to include the southern Berks and possibly the northernmost parts of Litchfield County, CT. I could see a 6" lolly somewhere up near the VT line in the high spots since QPF seems quite nice there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Just got back in from the weekend in MD. Boy, the snow pack took royal beating from Friday on. Lost over half the snow cover, lots of grass. Nice to see 2-4" in the zfp (though my p/c says 3-5). Much to catch up on here as I've been out of the loop for a couple of weeks. 40.2/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Just got back in from the weekend in MD. Boy, the snow pack took royal beating from Friday on. Lost over half the snow cover, lots of grass. Nice to see 2-4" in the zfp (though my p/c says 3-5). Much to catch up on here as I've been out of the loop for a couple of weeks. 40.2/14 We drove through your 'hood this morning, I was surprised how little snow was left. Plenty of pasture showing now. Beautiful though with the rolling fields and patches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Congrats on the WAA, Pete and Dave. The NAM still has a narrow burst of VVs that tear a hole into the atmosphere and then dryslots by 18z. I'm feeling pretty good that even the CP near BOS will get perhaps a coating to an inch from this. Maybe 1-2" just inland to the nw, so long as the band of precip is organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The dryslot may race in pretty darn quick. I actually wouldn't be shocked if this is mainly a 2 hr burst, with just some light sct showery stuff after the big lift comes through. It may make for a more even playing field for Kevin and Will since the DS will race in from the west. It probably will be more of a nowcast thing, but I'm just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Congrats on the WAA, Pete and Dave. The NAM still has a narrow burst of VVs that tear a hole into the atmosphere and then dryslots by 18z. I'm feeling pretty good that even the CP near BOS will get perhaps a coating to an inch from this. Maybe 1-2" just inland to the nw, so long as the band of precip is organized. Agree totally. Really nice 2 hour burst of omega in the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Anyone notice the current dew points? Td's are currently in the single digits to lower teens across all of New England. I've got a dew of 8F right now up in N.VT... down in SNE, ORH was at 4F, and CEF at 6F last hour. Those are some pretty low dew points going into tonight, so I would imagine wet bulbs are well down into the 20s across a lot of the interior. Heavy, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 We drove through your 'hood this morning, I was surprised how little snow was left. Plenty of pasture showing now. Beautiful though with the rolling fields and patches of snow. Yeah. I just took these out in the east-facing field. Much less around the house, but some areas like my hillside even it out. Regardless, much needed refresher is due! Did you drivey by the Pit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Agree totally. Really nice 2 hour burst of omega in the SGZ. Yeah the 18z GFS is even slightly better for tomorrow, but we'll have to watch the the upstream convection does. I hope it doesn't mess around with the QPF fields, especially since this is moving so fast, but that is probably a nowcast thing and we have pretty good agreement with the models. Strong WAA should generate a decent precip shield I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah. I just took these out in the east-facing field. Much less around the house, but some areas like my hillside even it out. Regardless, much needed refresher is due! Did you drivey by the Pit? Nice area Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah the 18z GFS is even slightly better for tomorrow, but we'll have to watch the the upstream convection does. I hope it doesn't mess around with the QPF fields, especially since this is moving so fast, but that is probably a nowcast thing and we have pretty good agreement with the models. Strong WAA should generate a decent precip shield I think. Yeah 18z GFS looks better for sure. The models insist on shifting the best warm advection south a bit which is good for us to keep us in the solid thump of QG forcing. Certainly a dynamic system as we can see north of Chicago. Maybe a few surprises for some out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nice area Mike. Thanks, Scott. As mentoined earlier, I've been unable to pay much attention to much of anything the last couple of weeks. But, looks like--at least on the 18z runs--that the onset has slowed down a few hours. I was kinda curious to see if we could get an equinox snow day. Later start would say no. Looks like the gfs even gives a little .5 love to areas above RT 2/west of Fitchburg. I know, I know--don't pay attention to the qpf. I'm just saying..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 gfs looks nice for the midweek threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 gfs looks nice for the midweek threat Still has the funky inverted trough through the hudson valley. RH fields are a bit north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah 18z GFS looks better for sure. The models insist on shifting the best warm advection south a bit which is good for us to keep us in the solid thump of QG forcing. Certainly a dynamic system as we can see north of Chicago. Maybe a few surprises for some out of this? These are fun, but a pain to forecast. I kind of wish I was doing ne surface wx because I enjoy this in a sick kind of way..lol. I could see a few surprises..probably more for areas further east. I don't see something like Kevin or Will getting 6" after forecasting to get 3" or something like that. It could be something where Ray busts more on the + side, but again...the ceiling on that isn't too high either. So long as the precip is heavy enough and doesn't come through disorganized..it should go according to plan. If it's like 15dbz coming through my area, that probably won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Still has the funky inverted trough through the hudson valley. RH fields are a bit north though. Yeah RH fields way north, but back to the inv trough again..lol. Still got some time with this, but the problem is a disorganized s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 These are fun, but a pain to forecast. I kind of wish I was doing ne surface wx because I enjoy this in a sick kind of way..lol. I could see a few surprises..probably more for areas further east. I don't see something like Kevin or Will getting 6" after forecasting to get 3" or something like that. It could be something where Ray busts more on the + side, but again...the ceiling on that isn't too high either. So long as the precip is heavy enough and doesn't come through disorganized..it should go according to plan. If it's like 15dbz coming through my area, that probably won't cut it. I could see 6" in some spot if things are heavy enough and se stay cold enough. Very dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 I could see 6" in some spot if things are heavy enough and se stay cold enough. Very dynamic. With those t-storms over the Lakes might make for some dynamic stuff tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah RH fields way north, but back to the inv trough again..lol. Still got some time with this, but the problem is a disorganized s/w. Nice wallop for MRG. big, big inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I could see 6" in some spot if things are heavy enough and se stay cold enough. Very dynamic. Maybe out near GC or CNE, but I think the mid level lows will prevent QPF from allowing that to happen over a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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