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Winter returns with a vengeance thread again


Damage In Tolland

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FWIW the euro 700 RH fields are saturated over sne for the Thursday storm, so again we may see a stripe of snow, quite a distance to the north of the surface low. We'll just have to wait and see on the next 48 hrs or so.

The vortmax that gets ejected from the main lakes s/w actually tracks in an ideal position for a lot of the area...over NYC/LI...so that's probably what the RH fields are showing.

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The vortmax that gets ejected from the main lakes s/w actually tracks in an ideal position for a lot of the area...over NYC/LI...so that's probably what the RH fields are showing.

Yeah it's too bad it's disorganized, but this is the first run that showed this so who knows..it could come right back at 00z. I wouldn't do backflips off the Tobin just yet.

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Yeah it's too bad it's disorganized, but this is the first run that showed this so who knows..it could come right back at 00z. I wouldn't do backflips of the Tobin just yet.

:lmao:

I actually have a pretty optimistic feeling about these system as a whole. It doesn't mean I'm expecting 6-10", but I think it will be a decent overrunning event with a cold wintry appeal. I think we'd have to see a huge change in the synoptic configuration over the next couple model runs to become very pessimistic with this one.

But first things first, especially for the interior...dealing with this Monday snow burst.

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:lmao:

I actually have a pretty optimistic feeling about these system as a whole. It doesn't mean I'm expecting 6-10", but I think it will be a decent overrunning event with a cold wintry appeal. I think we'd have to see a huge change in the synoptic configuration over the next couple model runs to become very pessimistic with this one.

But first things first, especially for the interior...dealing with this Monday snow burst.

I don't see anyway this doesn't trend into a coastal SE mass deal. Congrats to them.

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I don't see anyway this doesn't trend into a coastal SE mass deal. Congrats to them.

Lol...well its probably going to be pretty cold on the northern side of the system, so even the cranberry bogs could get snow.

Ukie is still pretty far north...maybe even more than the GFS. The ideal scenario is to have it a bit more juiced and try and intensify as it passes S of LI/RI and that would give a shot of Atlantic moisture into it as it exits stage right...especially ideal for eastern areas, but most of us would benefit some in a scenario like that.

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Give me 5 or 6 inches to cover the crud in the woods and one more good snow shoeing outing before my FL trip.

:lmao:

I actually have a pretty optimistic feeling about these system as a whole. It doesn't mean I'm expecting 6-10", but I think it will be a decent overrunning event with a cold wintry appeal. I think we'd have to see a huge change in the synoptic configuration over the next couple model runs to become very pessimistic with this one.

But first things first, especially for the interior...dealing with this Monday snow burst.

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Lol...well its probably going to be pretty cold on the northern side of the system, so even the cranberry bogs could get snow.

Ukie is still pretty far north...maybe even more than the GFS. The ideal scenario is to have it a bit more juiced and try and intensify as it passes S of LI/RI and that would give a shot of Atlantic moisture into it as it exits stage right...especially ideal for eastern areas, but most of us would benefit some in a scenario like that.

I'm hopeful we can get like a 4-8 Basketball hoop bender out of it...but it may end up a bit too powdery lol

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Probably strictly a SE Mass snowstorn

I actually think the same areas that got pounded all March here in SNE will take it on the chin again with this one. Time to get the bread, water, maybe a genset and an alternate heat source.

Or

It might be that the Euro/GGEM type solutions are closer to correct and it's a better bet the further south you go.

Or

we probably won't know for another 48 hours and by then it could be in Maine or DE :)

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Models actually slowed things down a bit today

18z NAM for instance has all the measurable west of CT/NY line by 8 a.m.

NAM has a notorious slow bias in WAA precip though, so I think ti will probably start sooner than what 18z is trying to show.

At any rate, there is impressive areas of 4"+ on the SREF probs for CNE...and even getting into the Berks/Monads/N ORH hills...that's probably where BOX will issue the advisory

f12s30.gif

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NAM has a notorious slow bias in WAA precip though, so I think ti will probably start sooner than what 18z is trying to show.

At any rate, there is impressive areas of 4"+ on the SREF probs for CNE...and even getting into the Berks/Monads/N ORH hills...that's probably where BOX will issue the advisory

f12s30.gif

Yeah BOX issues advisories north of you and throughout God's Country northwest of Northampton.

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