Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah we will see, I like my chances with that one. Think it will mainly be a southern areas thing. Plenty cold today feels a lot colder than it is. Probably strictly a SE Mass snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 FWIW the euro 700 RH fields are saturated over sne for the Thursday storm, so again we may see a stripe of snow, quite a distance to the north of the surface low. We'll just have to wait and see on the next 48 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 FWIW the euro 700 RH fields are saturated over sne for the Thursday storm, so again we may see a stripe of snow, quite a distance to the north of the surface low. We'll just have to wait and see on the next 48 hrs or so. The vortmax that gets ejected from the main lakes s/w actually tracks in an ideal position for a lot of the area...over NYC/LI...so that's probably what the RH fields are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The vortmax that gets ejected from the main lakes s/w actually tracks in an ideal position for a lot of the area...over NYC/LI...so that's probably what the RH fields are showing. Yeah it's too bad it's disorganized, but this is the first run that showed this so who knows..it could come right back at 00z. I wouldn't do backflips off the Tobin just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah it's too bad it's disorganized, but this is the first run that showed this so who knows..it could come right back at 00z. I wouldn't do backflips of the Tobin just yet. I actually have a pretty optimistic feeling about these system as a whole. It doesn't mean I'm expecting 6-10", but I think it will be a decent overrunning event with a cold wintry appeal. I think we'd have to see a huge change in the synoptic configuration over the next couple model runs to become very pessimistic with this one. But first things first, especially for the interior...dealing with this Monday snow burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 I actually have a pretty optimistic feeling about these system as a whole. It doesn't mean I'm expecting 6-10", but I think it will be a decent overrunning event with a cold wintry appeal. I think we'd have to see a huge change in the synoptic configuration over the next couple model runs to become very pessimistic with this one. But first things first, especially for the interior...dealing with this Monday snow burst. I don't see anyway this doesn't trend into a coastal SE mass deal. Congrats to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I don't see anyway this doesn't trend into a coastal SE mass deal. Congrats to them. Lol...well its probably going to be pretty cold on the northern side of the system, so even the cranberry bogs could get snow. Ukie is still pretty far north...maybe even more than the GFS. The ideal scenario is to have it a bit more juiced and try and intensify as it passes S of LI/RI and that would give a shot of Atlantic moisture into it as it exits stage right...especially ideal for eastern areas, but most of us would benefit some in a scenario like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Give me 5 or 6 inches to cover the crud in the woods and one more good snow shoeing outing before my FL trip. I actually have a pretty optimistic feeling about these system as a whole. It doesn't mean I'm expecting 6-10", but I think it will be a decent overrunning event with a cold wintry appeal. I think we'd have to see a huge change in the synoptic configuration over the next couple model runs to become very pessimistic with this one. But first things first, especially for the interior...dealing with this Monday snow burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Very nice writeup by Arnold on GYX for tomorrow. Advisories and Warnings up. Should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Im stoked for you guys up north! Enjoy the snow, was a fantastic day at the parade, no wind full sun, made mid 40's feel a lot warmer, I think its great that dendrites are in the forecast for those in the interior, enjoy guys!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Lol...well its probably going to be pretty cold on the northern side of the system, so even the cranberry bogs could get snow. Ukie is still pretty far north...maybe even more than the GFS. The ideal scenario is to have it a bit more juiced and try and intensify as it passes S of LI/RI and that would give a shot of Atlantic moisture into it as it exits stage right...especially ideal for eastern areas, but most of us would benefit some in a scenario like that. I'm hopeful we can get like a 4-8 Basketball hoop bender out of it...but it may end up a bit too powdery lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Probably strictly a SE Mass snowstorn I actually think the same areas that got pounded all March here in SNE will take it on the chin again with this one. Time to get the bread, water, maybe a genset and an alternate heat source. Or It might be that the Euro/GGEM type solutions are closer to correct and it's a better bet the further south you go. Or we probably won't know for another 48 hours and by then it could be in Maine or DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Kevin, I've locked in 1"-3" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Kevin, I've locked in 1"-3" for you Nice..I'll take it. Start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nice..I'll take it. Start time? 9? And over by 12 or 1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 9? And over by 12 or 1 lol I'd like to get it in here by 6:00-7:00. Let's see if we can speed that up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Euro is cold thru day 10 lol..Looks like January all over again where you'd flip thru each day and it would be well below normal. Love it. Looks like many days are 10-15 below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 the euro is the worst possible solution... please trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'd like to get it in here by 6:00-7:00. Let's see if we can speed that up a bit Models actually slowed things down a bit today 18z NAM for instance has all the measurable west of CT/NY line by 8 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Models actually slowed things down a bit today 18z NAM for instance has all the measurable west of CT/NY line by 8 a.m. Yeah, I noticed that. Doesn't start here until at least 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 nam clown map has me getting 3 to 4 inches of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Models actually slowed things down a bit today 18z NAM for instance has all the measurable west of CT/NY line by 8 a.m. NAM has a notorious slow bias in WAA precip though, so I think ti will probably start sooner than what 18z is trying to show. At any rate, there is impressive areas of 4"+ on the SREF probs for CNE...and even getting into the Berks/Monads/N ORH hills...that's probably where BOX will issue the advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 WWA AWT BOX upgraded point n click to 2-4" for mby Yipeeeee! I'm a kook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 NAM has a notorious slow bias in WAA precip though, so I think ti will probably start sooner than what 18z is trying to show. At any rate, there is impressive areas of 4"+ on the SREF probs for CNE...and even getting into the Berks/Monads/N ORH hills...that's probably where BOX will issue the advisory Yeah BOX issues advisories north of you and throughout God's Country northwest of Northampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This FTW... storm total QPF on NAM is between 1/2-3/4" with a small area in NE VT of 3/4"-1". This could be a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 PREFER THE BEST SOLN CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF. - trough coming into plains by Tue per NCEP diagnostic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Ghost of 2007 being slain this week. No more March fail here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah BOX issues advisories north of you and throughout God's Country northwest of Northampton. Yeah and there they are...follows the SREF probs for 4"+ pretty well. I love being 0.5 miles out of the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Gotta love when it snows on the first day of Spring... no better way to usher in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah and there they are...follows the SREF probs for 4"+ pretty well. I love being 0.5 miles out of the advisory. lol makes sense to me. I could see areas like Kevin getting 3 or 4 inches if things break right. Euro is damn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.