N. OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You'll get some, but the better moisture could be just to your north. You might get an inch or two, but people like HubbDave could very well get advisory snow, so I think the attention is more up that way. great noon time skiing at wa wa tommorrow......they will be dumped on at my fav. trail at 2000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GFS ensembles are actually a little south of 00z. Probably a good thing. Verbatim they offer a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Youll probably get an inch...maybe two. I don't think your enough north to warrant an advisory or anything, but there should be a pretty good burst. You'll get some, but the better moisture could be just to your north. You might get an inch or two, but people like HubbDave could very well get advisory snow, so I think the attention is more up that way. Yeah I think 1-2 maybe 3 if it breaks great. Recall that last snow event whenever the hell it was that was progged to be north and the best snows ended up south of the pike.That won't happen tomorrow..but it's in the back of my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Just when everyone let there guard down back comes winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah I think 1-2 maybe 3 if it breaks great. Recall that last snow event whenever the hell it was that was progged to be north and the best snows ended up south of the pike.That won't happen tomorrow..but it's in the back of my mind Last snow event was the Feb 27 deal that jackpotted Ray and S NH. I was up in N Chelmsford for that one and we had 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GFS ensembles are actually a little south of 00z. Probably a good thing. Verbatim they offer a nice hit. Looks like they have something brewing at D7 too. The GEFS (and the OP) would probably put a lot of SNE in the best ML fronto and deep comma head moisture just N of the 700mb low for the 84-96 event. That's what we want to see stick on model guidance as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 RUC coming in really cold at 18 hours. Has a high in Maine, which could lead to cold air bleeding down the ME/NH/ and MA coastlines as it usually does in this setup. I could see W NH, W MA, VT sitting at 31-32, while just east of there in the valley and coastline is at 26-28, until the low passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Last snow event was the Feb 27 deal that jackpotted Ray and S NH. I was up in N Chelmsford for that one and we had 7". Maybe it was the one before that..I don't recall the exact date..but you guys on north were supposed to get it..and I think SW CT jackpotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Just when everyone let there guard down back comes winter... lol, indeed it looks like winter really might make a comeback after all. 4-7 here tonight into tomorrow for starters is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Maybe it was the one before that..I don't recall the exact date..but you guys on north were supposed to get it..and I think SW CT jackpotted Feb 21st? The one where Socks got like 7-8"? That one was def south, but it was forecasted to be south once inside of 60h...we were thinking it could come north before that but it never really made the jump. I think most of us got aorund 2" in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Feb 21st? The one where Socks got like 7-8"? That one was def south, but it was forecasted to be south once inside of 60h...we were thinking it could come north before that but it never really made the jump. I think most of us got aorund 2" in that one. Yeah maybe that was it. BTW..did you get trounced and knocked unconscious at the Murphy's concert last night in the moshpit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah maybe that was it. BTW..did you get trounced and knocked unconscious at the Murphy's concert last night in the moshpit? A fat dude stepped on me, lol. I was ok though, I wasn't knocked unconscious...but it got pretty wild in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 A fat dude stepped on me, lol. I was ok though, I wasn't knocked unconscious...but it got pretty wild in there. Ray told me you were knocked out cold Glad you weren't hurt seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 A fat dude stepped on me, lol. I was ok though, I wasn't knocked unconscious...but it got pretty wild in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 have to congrats kev on a great thread he started title and all also congrats to him finding out how to run the gfs from his weeniemobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GGEM is still pretty south with the mid-week threat. Its mostly a light snow for CT and maybe up to the pike, not much of anything but flurries/snow showers further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 have to congrats kev on a great thread he started title and all also congrats to him finding out how to run the gfs from his weeniemobile It actually feels good to be back in weather mode and out of nuclear/ earthquake mode. I just can't read any of that speculation/skepticism anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 A fat dude stepped on me, lol. I was ok though, I wasn't knocked unconscious...but it got pretty wild in there. I can imagine it got pretty intense..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 A fat dude stepped on me, lol. I was ok though, I wasn't knocked unconscious...but it got pretty wild in there. ice warrior could have karate chopped him with rapid hand movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GGEM is still pretty south with the mid-week threat. Its mostly a light snow for CT and maybe up to the pike, not much of anything but flurries/snow showers further north. DT on FB seems to think it will be a NNJ NYC S coast SNE SE SNE thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GGEM is still pretty south with the mid-week threat. Its mostly a light snow for CT and maybe up to the pike, not much of anything but flurries/snow showers further north. I do like how we have more of a consolidated low now, instead of the inv trough feature on the GEM and GFS. Models seem to have the good mid level frontogenesis pretty far north compared to the surface circulation, so that's something to consider. The GFS ensembles look like a mid winter pattern heading into early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The op GFS was certainly a weenie dream here. Five snow threats in 16 days. I would be flying out to FL in the snow next Monday and yet another one coming as I returned the following week. I'm driving back up the coast and visiting some relatives, etc. I do like how we have more of a consolidated low now, instead of the inv trough feature on the GEM and GFS. Models seem to have the good mid level frontogenesis pretty far north compared to the surface circulation, so that's something to consider. The GFS ensembles look like a mid winter pattern heading into early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I do like how we have more of a consolidated low now, instead of the inv trough feature on the GEM and GFS. Models seem to have the good mid level frontogenesis pretty far north compared to the surface circulation, so that's something to consider. The GFS ensembles look like a mid winter pattern heading into early April. Yeah I'm liking better and better the synoptic look to this low...good ML frontogenesis could line up well with the weak area of deformation N of the 700mb low. That's capable of producing good snows wherever that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I do like how we have more of a consolidated low now, instead of the inv trough feature on the GEM and GFS. Models seem to have the good mid level frontogenesis pretty far north compared to the surface circulation, so that's something to consider. The GFS ensembles look like a mid winter pattern heading into early April. Thanks for the updates guys...as i know you really dont talk about my area......but its great to jump in here and read the model updates. You guys feel i might be cook down here? It seems the euro and gfs would be the model of choice in this time frame....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I do like how we have more of a consolidated low now, instead of the inv trough feature on the GEM and GFS. Models seem to have the good mid level frontogenesis pretty far north compared The GFS ensembles look like a mid winter pattern heading into early April. Lol...they look more like a late Feb or early Mar pattern. Its almost an eerie repeat of the Jan progression...the west based NAO block begins to break down about D10 and when that happens, a big western ridge takes over and keep the pattern cold after that. Its what we were speculating would return in the first half of March but it looks like it took two to three weeks longer. The thing though is a pattern like that in early April will produce a 50F high if its full sunshine so people won't know that its still a loaded gun for snow threats because you are way below average in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Lol...they look more like a late Feb or early Mar pattern. Its almost an eerie repeat of the Jan progression...the west based NAO block begins to break down about D10 and when that happens, a big western ridge takes over and keep the pattern cold after that. Its what we were speculating would return in the first half of March but it looks like it took two to three weeks longer. The thing though is a pattern like that in early April will produce a 50F high if its full sunshine so people won't know that its still a loaded gun for snow threats because you are way below average in the mid-levels. Yeah for sure. The same atmosphere giving 50F under full sun, can give a 32F snowbomb 24 hrs later. I just took a look at the MJO progs and they all have it going into the western Pacific. Even the EC ensembles show some ridging, but nothing like the GFS. I wonder if it's one of those westerly trade wind surges that occur when Nina begins to weaken. In any case, that looks to try and take over just as the NAO weakens, as you mentioned. Even though wavelengths shorten, that would help any ULL go south of us, if the NAO goes +. Of course this is if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 12z GFS clown map: I suspect it'll move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Euro time...let's rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The period where the weakening of the NAO coincides with a sharper ridge forming in western NA....that could be a ripe time for a serious early Spring snowstorm...as opposed to this week's nice moderate event, etc. Maybe we are talking as late as April 4-10, etc. It's not quite too late. rten, that would help any ULL go south of us, if the NAO goes +. Of course this is if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The period where the weakening of the NAO coincides with a sharper ridge forming in western NA....that could be a ripe time for a serious early Spring snowstorm...as opposed to this week's nice moderate event, etc. Maybe we are talking as late as April 4-10, etc. It's not quite too late. rten, that would help any ULL go south of us, if the NAO goes +. Of course this is if the GFS is right. Will, What is the latest places like BDL, BOS, ORH, and CON have seen a 12+ snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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