Winter returns with a vengeance thread again

[dendrite]

Looks like C NH may get advisory snows on the 12z NAM, but with the track of the MLLs like that we dryslot quickly while we get some low-level, rinky-dink precip after that. It's probably going to be one of the S/+S deals for most of the QPF and then -IP/ZL/SG for the last 0.05-0.10". The EC was colder and further south with the H7 dryslot so maybe the column will fair better.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah exactly. I'm not too enthused to see the SREFs cutting back and the southward outlier tick north in a big way.

We'll get some snow here in CT tomorrow but I doubt it will be anything impressive for more than an hour or so.

It may come on rather strong initially. We'll have to watch for that, because it could deposit a quick inch or perhaps a bit more in the hills. At least the timing isn't too bad for CT.

[weatherwiz]

NCEP is down :Thumbsdpwn:

[CoastalWx]

Looks like C NH may get advisory snows on the 12z NAM, but with the track of the MLLs like that we dryslot quickly while we get some low-level, rinky-dink precip after that. It's probably going to be one of the S/+S deals for most of the QPF and then -IP/ZL/SG for the last 0.05-0.10". The EC was colder and further south with the H7 dryslot so maybe the column will fair better.

Yeah the DS should race in here, as usual with the 700 low so far nw.

[powderfreak]

Maybe for you, but that's when some of the heaviest snow will be starting to fall across NH

You guys are going to do quite well there in interior NH and ME. You guys usually out-perform us in these situations, but I'm still thinking 2-4" here tomorrow outside of the larger Champlain Valley which torches on south winds.

The consultant who does our daily operational forecast is calling for 3-5" on the mountain tomorrow (1,500ft and up) with chance of 6" above 3,000ft.

I'm definitely going to enjoy any snowfall at this point.

[HoarfrostHubb]

You guys are going to do quite well there in interior NH and ME. You guys usually out-perform us in these situations, but I'm still thinking 2-4" here tomorrow outside of the larger Champlain Valley which torches on south winds.

The consultant who does our daily operational forecast is calling for 3-5" on the mountain tomorrow (1,500ft and up) with chance of 6" above 3,000ft.

I'm definitely going to enjoy any snowfall at this point.

How late does Stowe usually stay open until and what are they thinking for this season?

[powderfreak]

How late does Stowe usually stay open until and what are they thinking for this season?

Sunday April 17th this season... senior management has made it known that April 17th will be the closing date regardless of how much snow we have. In the past we've gone to May 1st if the snowpack is deep enough. Closing this year will be because of evaporating skiers, not snow.

Up in northern VT, Sugarbush and Jay Peak usually stay open the latest; both of them like to at least get to the first weekend in May.

Of course, I'll be skinning/hiking and skiing Stowe until Memorial Day because it takes a long time for the snowmaking trails to melt out. With a current 30-90" natural snow depth from 1,500ft-3,700ft, on top of all the snowmaking done earlier in the year, some of the trails are positively buried. I can see the ski trails from my living room window, so hopefully I'll be able to look out and see snow out the window till Memorial Day, haha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Congrats Ray for challenging '71-'72.

Euro has a nice snow event for Thursday, but it will continue north I think so we have to watch for that. NYC may be out of the game.

AWT

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sunday April 17th this season... senior management has made it known that April 17th will be the closing date regardless of how much snow we have. In the past we've gone to May 1st if the snowpack is deep enough. Closing this year will be because of evaporating skiers, not snow.

Up in northern VT, Sugarbush and Jay Peak usually stay open the latest; both of them like to at least get to the first weekend in May.

Of course, I'll be skinning/hiking and skiing Stowe until Memorial Day because it takes a long time for the snowmaking trails to melt out. With a current 30-90" natural snow depth from 1,500ft-3,700ft, on top of all the snowmaking done earlier in the year, some of the trails are positively buried. I can see the ski trails from my living room window, so hopefully I'll be able to look out and see snow out the window till Memorial Day, haha.

That's too bad they can't get one more week out of it, but I understand the economics of it.

Here, Wachusett curtails their night skiing until 8PM, they don't do the late grooming, so once I get there at 4PM it is all gnarly (still fun, but harder on my legs).

They are down to 10-20", but still are 95% open which is much better than last year at this time. Hopefully this week will give them fresh snow and more skiers. They are closing April 3rd.

They will be snow free May 1st or so, maybe sooner. I'll be there this afternoon for a couple hours. Gorgeous out today, 34F, clear at 11AM

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

To me it looks like a quick front end period of snow followed by some rain that will melt any accumulated snow once the precip shuts off. It reminds me of all of those early winter snow chances that just never dug far enough south to give New England the snows we all longed for at that time. Ridging out west is just not where we need it for something more significant. We need a steadfast +PNA and this winter just does not want to give it to us. How was the period from JAN 11th through MAR 11th for snowstorms? I wasn't here for that time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

To me it looks like a quick front end period of snow followed by some rain that will melt any accumulated snow once the precip shuts off. It reminds me of all of those early winter snow chances that just never dug far enough south to give New England the snows we all longed for at that time. Ridging out west is just not where we need it for something more significant. We need a steadfast +PNA and this winter just does not want to give it to us. How was the period from JAN 11th through MAR 11th for snowstorms? I wasn't here for that time.

See my sig above... Jn 12 was my best storm, Jan 26-27 was ok, Feb had a couple of moderate events, but it did not have much after the middle of the month here, just a few minor ones.

Still, snow is on the ground in my yard (fading fast) but will get replenished Monday and again Thursday with no real warmup for a little while.

This week will piss some folks off, who are already raking their yards and planting vegetable gardens in their mud boots

[40/70 Benchmark]

The winter warlocks, trapped by choice inside their dark dingy basements and avoiding any type of sun, melting snow, grass - desperately searching for long-range computer generated snows in April, refuse to go on any boat or water craft until July...that's a long time for Spring prancers to wait for the pact suicide.

Uninformed kooks ftw.

You ftl.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM clown map has a solid advisory event in the hills N of the pike...even the CP in MA gets 2"+.

It looks similar to the Euro but the Euro was a little bit further south.

[powderfreak]

That's too bad they can't get one more week out of it, but I understand the economics of it.

Here, Wachusett curtails their night skiing until 8PM, they don't do the late grooming, so once I get there at 4PM it is all gnarly (still fun, but harder on my legs).

They are down to 10-20", but still are 95% open which is much better than last year at this time. Hopefully this week will give them fresh snow and more skiers. They are closing April 3rd.

They will be snow free May 1st or so, maybe sooner. I'll be there this afternoon for a couple hours. Gorgeous out today, 34F, clear at 11AM

Yeah last year at this time was yikes for most of the ski areas in New England. We had to close a week early last year on April 11th and even then it was a stretch to push enough snow around at night to patch together a few top-to-bottom runs. Totally different ball game this year, especially with the cold the next 7-10 days so snow loss should be minimal between now and April 1st.

Of course, last year it then snowed 24" on April 29th, leaving widespread snow cover in N.VT on May 1st even in the valleys haha. The weather will do what the weather wants to do.

For SNE, I think there's a couple accumulating events on tap and I definitely think after tomorrow's event, we may be too far north up here for much of anything besides snow showers.

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM clown map has a solid advisory event in the hills N of the pike...even the CP in MA gets 2"+.

It looks similar to the Euro but the Euro was a little bit further south.

Not bad, 3-5" here

Hoping for 2 or 3 inches just to piss off folks and remind them it is still March

[CoastalWx]

NAM clown map has a solid advisory event in the hills N of the pike...even the CP in MA gets 2"+.

It looks similar to the Euro but the Euro was a little bit further south.

I actually think the CP could get a small accumulation perhaps an inch if things break right and come in rather intense. It might be a very pasty 33F snow with big aggregates coming down.

Ray might be one of the better spots in the cp of ne mass.

[OKpowdah]

Looks like C NH may get advisory snows on the 12z NAM, but with the track of the MLLs like that we dryslot quickly while we get some low-level, rinky-dink precip after that. It's probably going to be one of the S/+S deals for most of the QPF and then -IP/ZL/SG for the last 0.05-0.10". The EC was colder and further south with the H7 dryslot so maybe the column will fair better.

There's going to be a couple hours (right around noon) where we're really ripping some huge dendrites around an inch per hour

[ORH_wxman]

I actually think the CP could get a small accumulation perhaps an inch if things break right and come in rather intense. It might be a very pasty 33F snow with big aggregates coming down.

Most guidance has a pretty intense period of lift. I think between 12z and about 16z, we might see heavy snow that pastes everything. It could definitely be an inch an hour type stuff even if it doesn't last more than a couple hours. Hopefully it over performs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM clown map has a solid advisory event in the hills N of the pike...even the CP in MA gets 2"+.

It looks similar to the Euro but the Euro was a little bit further south.

Awesome.

[CoastalWx]

Most guidance has a pretty intense period of lift. I think between 12z and about 16z, we might see heavy snow that pastes everything. It could definitely be an inch an hour type stuff even if it doesn't last more than a couple hours. Hopefully it over performs.

Yeah it just might come in like a wall and go to town for about 2-3hrs or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually think the CP could get a small accumulation perhaps an inch if things break right and come in rather intense. It might be a very pasty 33F snow with big aggregates coming down.

Ray might be one of the better spots in the cp of ne mass.

This is taking on the appeal of a classic appendage of appreciable snows from the higher terrain of N ORH co, stretchin into interior ne MA.

I think I catch rev.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah it just might come in like a wall and go to town for about 2-3hrs or so.

The 900-925mb temps are really cold so I don't think sfc temps will be a problem very long, even for some of the lower areas like where Ray is. They might be more problematic in RI and S of the pike where the S flow can make a bit better inroads on the temps....but when I was looking at soundings, I was surprised at how cold it was in the 900mb level. Its not like we are going ot try and get an isothermal 800-sfc layer at 0C.

I wouldn't be surprised if the higher spots over 1000 feet in monads/N ORH/N berks wetbulb quickly to 32F and then drop a bit further with the heavy precip into the 30F range...we'll have to watch for that because if its 30F, it will accumulate quite a bit more rapidly. With that cold air lurking just barely aloft, there's room to cool pretty good, esp in the hills during heavy precip.

[CoastalWx]

This is taking on the appeal of a classic appendage of appreciable snows from the higher terrain of N ORH co, stretchin into interior ne MA.

I think I catch rev.

It might not be a big difference between your area and other areas on the CP, but with mid levels just a bit colder...you might do just a hair better.

The real chance will come Thursday.

[TalcottWx]

At the breakfast... what a beautiful day this will be

[CoastalWx]

The 900-925mb temps are really cold so I don't think sfc temps will be a problem very long, even for some of the lower areas like where Ray is. They might be more problematic in RI and S of the pike where the S flow can make a bit better inroads on the temps....but when I was looking at soundings, I was surprised at how cold it was in the 900mb level. Its not like we are going ot try and get an isothermal 800-sfc layer at 0C.

I wouldn't be surprised if the higher spots over 1000 feet in monads/N ORH/N berks wetbulb quickly to 32F and then drop a bit further with the heavy precip into the 30F range...we'll have to watch for that because if its 30F, it will accumulate quite a bit more rapidly. With that cold air lurking just barely aloft, there's room to cool pretty good, esp in the hills during heavy precip.

Yeah I noticed that as well...one of the reasons why I thought areas of the CP could get snow...probably part of the reason the NAM clown maps giving 1-2" all the way to Buzzards Bay. It's still March 21 and with colder mid level temps...I don't think it will take much for it to stick if it comes down heavy. Probably almost right away in grassy areas. I think the question is more about how much QPF is and how intense the lift is, rather than ptype. I could see a 34-36F snow at some point.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looking at/using NAM partial thickness' and considering the timing, this Monday system is not just an elevation event. It is not a major system by any any stretch, but it will snow down to the valley floors and CP, and will probably accumulate.

Road sfc are not appreciably cold given to the higher sun angle of Spring after a 100% irradiance day, but difficult call there as the first half of tonight will be spectacular radiative transfer and temp plummet. Clouds will then arrive all at once nearing midnight west and 2 or 3am east, and that will cap cold thickness in place. Instability burst associated with WAA will bring a snow wall (heaviest west) through the area, and everyone has 1/3 mi vis [probably] for a couple of hours during the morning from west to east. There is a suggestion particularly south that llv warming will invade but the brunt of QPF is gone by then and the damage is done.

This is not just an elevation system.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 900-925mb temps are really cold so I don't think sfc temps will be a problem very long, even for some of the lower areas like where Ray is. They might be more problematic in RI and S of the pike where the S flow can make a bit better inroads on the temps....but when I was looking at soundings, I was surprised at how cold it was in the 900mb level. Its not like we are going ot try and get an isothermal 800-sfc layer at 0C.

I wouldn't be surprised if the higher spots over 1000 feet in monads/N ORH/N berks wetbulb quickly to 32F and then drop a bit further with the heavy precip into the 30F range...we'll have to watch for that because if its 30F, it will accumulate quite a bit more rapidly. With that cold air lurking just barely aloft, there's room to cool pretty good, esp in the hills during heavy precip.

Sneaky sneaky cold

[CoastalWx]

Looking at/using NAM partial thickness' and considering the timing, this Monday system is not just an elevation event. It is not a major system by any any stretch, but it will snow down to the valley floors and CP, and will probably accumulate.

Road sfc are not appreciably cold given to the higher sun angle of Spring after a 100% irradiance day, but difficult call there as the first half of tonight will be spectacular radiative transfer and temp plummet. Clouds will then arrive all at once nearing midnight west and 2 or 3am east, and that will cap cold thickness in place. Instability burst associated with WAA will bring a snow wall (heaviest west) through the area, and everyone has 1/3 mi vis [probably] for a couple of hours during the morning from west to east. There is a suggestion particularly south that llv warming will invade but the brunt of QPF is gone by then and the damage is done.

This is not just an elevation system.

Yeah agree. So long as it's a solid burst coming through and not some disorganized banded crap on radar, it should snow on the CP even into parts of se mass.

[dendrite]

There's going to be a couple hours (right around noon) where we're really ripping some huge dendrites around an inch per hour

The RSM goes frankfurter on NH between 15-18z. 2"/hr for a few hours. Most of the SREF members really romp during that time too. Should be fun.

[ineedsnow]

looks like an inch or 2 in the valley higher elevations 4 to 7