CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Probably a good thing this is south of the BM 5 days out. The ensembles are very close to the OP track, but seem just a tad further north with thicknesses. i think the thursday threat is much more interested than the threat on Monday to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 i think the thursday threat is much more interested than the threat on Monday to be honest. Yep ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Probably a good thing this is south of the BM 5 days out. The ensembles are very close to the OP track, but seem just a tad further north with thicknesses. A lot of the GFS ensembles get snow/crap line pretty far north, so there's certainly some signs of a potential further north bump. Given that its already hard to get comfortable at 108 hours...especially this year with the way the models have been....its even tougher in this given the late climo and the gradient of thicknesses. Could be a relatively short distance between the haves and have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 i think the thursday threat is much more interested than the threat on Monday to be honest. No brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 No brainer. Kevin's already locking in 2-4" for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 A lot of the GFS ensembles get snow/crap line pretty far north, so there's certainly some signs of a potential further north bump. Given that its already hard to get comfortable at 108 hours...especially this year with the way the models have been....its even tougher in this given the late climo and the gradient of thicknesses. Could be a relatively short distance between the haves and have nots. I'd rather end up too far N, than s....I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 i think the thursday threat is much more interested than the threat on Monday to be honest. I may see a little snow, but I'm not into Monday. I do hope people like Kevin and Will see a little...at least some can get in on a little fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Kevin's already locking in 2-4" for Monday I'd go 1-3" for him....just non-accumulating mood flakes, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Both threats are for those from the pike north, and Thurs might be north of that. Meanwhile 50/23 Another beautiful sunny day, congrats to ski country on a fantastic spring week of winter weather!!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 A lot of the GFS ensembles get snow/crap line pretty far north, so there's certainly some signs of a potential further north bump. Given that its already hard to get comfortable at 108 hours...especially this year with the way the models have been....its even tougher in this given the late climo and the gradient of thicknesses. Could be a relatively short distance between the haves and have nots. Yeah the GFS ensemble mean were pretty far north with the mid level features..probably due to some of the more milder solutions. I'm well prepared for a meh solution, but of course deep down...I want just one more decent event. The euro ensembles have been cooling off a bit in later range. I don't think it's out of the question to have some more threats, given the blocking...but emphasize THREATS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'd go 1-3" for him....just non-accumulating mood flakes, here. I wouldn't rule out you getting more than mood flakes, but timing stinks for us. I'd actually be a little more optimistic if it occurred 12hrs earlier. It's pretty cold in the mid levels at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This is how I feel about next week relative to the chase of history: I need .9" to tie to catch 1981-82, 2.2" to catch 1971-72 and 3.2" to catch 1963-64....those are all very doable, but catching 1992-93 and 1976-77, which are tied for 4th @ 97.3" apiece, will be tough to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 BDL needs 0.8" to get to #2 on the list 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I wouldn't rule out you getting more than mood flakes, but timing stinks for us. I'd actually be a little more optimistic if it occurred 12hrs earlier. It's pretty cold in the mid levels at first. Maybe a slushy film on the Celica spoiler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 WB Jerry I'm reeled back in! I am taking messenger out Thursday night....how ironic to have that snowed out....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Maybe a slushy film on the Celica spoiler. I wouldn't call for it now, but I don't think a slushy half inch to inch is out of the question, esp if precip can start earlier. That doesn't need to be evaluated until tomorrow, but I thought about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I wouldn't call for it now, but I don't think a slushy half inch to inch is out of the question, esp if precip can start earlier. That doesn't need to be evaluated until tomorrow, but I thought about it. Doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 okx has taken snow out of the forecast now for monday. Still think we see 50+ Monday, that se ridge is not going down without a fight the next 3 weeks, especially with the trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Doesn't really matter. Maybe not, just saying don't be surprised if your Celica and weenie are coated white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Maybe not, just saying don't be surprised if your Celica and weenie are coated white. I know....warrants a met DISCO, but it's pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This is the time of year where we need to start counting our blessings even if we get a crappy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm reeled back in! I am taking messenger out Thursday night....how ironic to have that snowed out....lol.. Will take a blizzard....I haven't eaten in three days...big big meal incoming. Good, I was dismayed to watch you leap from the bandwagon. It wasn't really a leap...more like a gradual tip toed shuffle after 3+ weeks of no-winter. Both threats are for those from the pike north, and Thurs might be north of that. Meanwhile 50/23 Another beautiful sunny day, congrats to ski country on a fantastic spring week of winter weather!!! :snowman: 37 here. Sun is out now, cold wind off the water. Awesome paragliding day....the regulars have been back and forth for a few hours. Great forcing up the cliff. Hang gliders having a tougher time with it, almost too windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I know....warrant met DISCO, but it's pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things. Given the years you said you were chasing, it might be somewhat interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Given the years you said you were chasing, it might be somewhat interesting. I suppose, but I doubt it's more than .5, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Will take a blizzard....I haven't eaten in three days...big big meal incoming. It wasn't really a leap...more like a gradual tip toed shuffle after 3+ weeks of no-winter. Winter never left here. 37 here. Sun is out now, cold wind off the water. Awesome paragliding day....the regulars have been back and forth for a few hours. Great forcing up the cliff. Hang gliders having a tougher time with it, almost too windy. Love paragliding at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Love paragliding at the beach. Wow...I'm taken aback....a picture of something that's not surrounded with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Havent' been able to look at too much stuff the last week or two. Nice to see a couple wintry possibilities in teh works. I thought my daughter's delay last week was going to be the last of the season. Guess I might have been wrong. Came down to visit my daughters in MD for the weekend, so missed out on yesterday's 57.3 high back at the pit. Guess we can perhpas put the meltdown into reverse for a while and get a little gain. 39.9/16 back at the pit but 58 here at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ray, you can just take pics of yourself and post them. 18z GFS says congrats to Ray beating '81-'82 and next up '71-'72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ray, you can just take pics of yourself and post them. 18z GFS says congrats to Ray beating '81-'82 and next up '71-'72. '63-'64, while we're at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 '63-'64, while we're at it. For the love of God, destroy the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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