ineedsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 are you sick today? I'm actually sort of excited for a week of snow threats to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Administrators are supposed to be above that type of behavior. Big, big winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 are you sick today? Winter ended here 6 weeks ago. A 7 day reprieve won't kill anyone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 How about congrats me, Will? Over 1" of QPF all snow, to push me to like 80" on a season in a town that averages 35? I highly doubt that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 EC ens a bit north of the op for Wed/Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I highly doubt that happens Me too, but it's surely nice to look at it. I wouldn't be surprised if this trended a bit north with what the 12z GEFS show and the track of the mid-level features. That could turn it into more of a mix/rain event down here, but I still think we might get something. I don't think this will be the last threat either for the coastal plain; Euro shows something developing around 192 hrs and HM has also said that April 5-10 may feature a surprise spring snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Clearly you missed the point of all that before Look - I like interesting Meterology... Any snow threat beyond any given March 15 is interesting - despite that, I don't allow my personal druthers get in the way of my interest in Meteorology. No. I'm high functioning so I got the point.lol I was just bustin'. As has been well established, I'm a snow Kook. Snow, snow, snow and more snow. I'm interested in meteorology but the interest I have stems largely from growing up as a skier. I follow the weather all year as I'm out in it everyday but the stretch from mid-May to mid-September is much less compelling. I hope we get buried and Spring is held at bay for several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 EC ens a bit north of the op for Wed/Thu. I won't be surprised if this comes a decent bit further north. Luckily most of SNE still has a lot of wiggle room except maybe the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I won't be surprised if this comes a decent bit further north. Luckily most of SNE still has a lot of wiggle room except maybe the south coast. The "wife" flies out here Wed afternoon. I'm hoping she gets a rude awakening. loledit: no delays though please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 The euro did pretty good in keeping the crappy pattern iirc. I thought it was the GFS that was too insistent on developing riding in CA. Yeah I suppose. The pattern was so bad I never looked at it. Not once. Not sure it made a difference as I wasn't thinking winter was returning and it didn't. Yeah - winter is up against tough odds down here now. As we enter the last week of March even a -17 below average high temp still nets out above freezing. And we add a degree every couple of days. But I'll never forget the April Fool's Day Blizzard in '97. My memory is fuzzy, but I think the temps hit 70 not three days before the event... Well we're definitely heading into a much colder pattern. Potential will finally be there but we fight a climo battle CCB over the Cape and islands. It looked like there was a hint of an inv trough feature at 120 keeping snow flying well NW of the low as the PV slowly dropped south through QB. Then the CCB just takes over as the low slides a hair S of the BM. Might as well be 220 given previous performance. Big, big winter though. Epic. Beyond 48-60 hours I won't get suckered. Models have been terrible at that range most of the time whether it was a forecast of rain, snow or sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm reeled back in! I am taking messenger out Thursday night....how ironic to have that snowed out....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm actually sort of excited for a week of snow threats to watch. I'm stoked, I was getting worried I'd see lawn before April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Me too, but it's surely nice to look at it. I wouldn't be surprised if this trended a bit north with what the 12z GEFS show and the track of the mid-level features. That could turn it into more of a mix/rain event down here, but I still think we might get something. I don't think this will be the last threat either for the coastal plain; Euro shows something developing around 192 hrs and HM has also said that April 5-10 may feature a surprise spring snowfall. Your elevation will save you Im hoping for an April 1996 / April 2003 type of scenario which would also be indicative of perhaps a weak el nino building next fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Big, big winter though. It has been very good. A nice grand finale would be perfect. Something like a 4-5 week cold snap with multiple snow threats landing direct hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 15z SREFs have over 50% probs of >1" for ORH-HFD and NW and even some lower probs of 4"+ for Monday. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 15z SREFs have over 50% probs of >1" for ORH-HFD and NW and even some lower probs of 4"+ for Monday. Not bad. I'm flying ORD-BOS Monday afternoon. I suspect delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm reeled back in! I am taking messenger out Thursday night....how ironic to have that snowed out....lol.. Good, I was dismayed to watch you leap from the bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Me too, but it's surely nice to look at it. I wouldn't be surprised if this trended a bit north with what the 12z GEFS show and the track of the mid-level features. That could turn it into more of a mix/rain event down here, but I still think we might get something. I don't think this will be the last threat either for the coastal plain; Euro shows something developing around 192 hrs and HM has also said that April 5-10 may feature a surprise spring snowfall. I still think this is a lot of rain for most of us in CT/SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 15z SREFs have over 50% probs of >1" for ORH-HFD and NW and even some lower probs of 4"+ for Monday. Not bad. Which is down from 9z back in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Good, I was dismayed to watch you leap from the bandwagon. I haven't leaped yet...but I like the idea of green grass. Been traveling like a nut lately. Snowstorm Monday, London Tuesday, home Wednesday night, snowstorm Thursday...Vegas Saturday. that's my schedule for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Be fair - I wasn't speaking to warm weather zealots. There isn't enough of them around to warrant that concern. Ginx, I respectfully disagree. You mentioned "odd post for weather board" - therein is the problem: it's not a weather board if it is so heavily and seemingly ONLY faceted in the singular and oft' coming across as irrationally obsessed with the aspect of snow to the point of neurotic. "Weather" involves everything. This is a snow board. Hey, that's fine - just nice to know what it is one's really involved in. More power to a snow board! You fill me in on what other exciting wx that Wilmington, MA oft experiences and I root it on....sorry, 60 and sunny, while pleasant....is not exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I haven't leaped yet...but I like the idea of green grass. Been traveling like a nut lately. Snowstorm Monday, London Tuesday, home Wednesday night, snowstorm Thursday...Vegas Saturday. that's my schedule for this week. Hmmm. Are you still going to Anchorage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 How about congrats me, Will? Over 1" of QPF all snow, to push me to like 80" on a season in a town that averages 35? Lets bump this on Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Monday has "who cares" written all over it, if you live below about 800' in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I still think this is a lot of rain for most of us in CT/SE NY You may be right but hopefully we do get some advisory level stuff and the pattern seems conducive for more possibilities right through early April. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 324 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BLOCKING WITH REX BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...THUS LEAVING EASTERN CANADA UNDER A POLAR VORTEX. A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO NEGATIVE NAO. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS WELL FORECAST (LOW SPREAD) BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX. THE FIRST OF THIS OCCURS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF EFS AND 12Z GEFS...SPREAD IS LOW FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED "NORLUN" TROUGH FEATURED FOR THURSDAY. THUS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PCPN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY. P-TYPE IS CHALLENGING WITH GEFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW THURSDAY MORNING WITH QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH BEING THE 30-50% RANGE. THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GEFS GIVES MINIMAL WARNING LEVEL SNOW AT KSWF. FOR NOW...KEEPING IT MIX FOR COAST WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE AS TEMPS/THICKNESSES ARE MARGINAL. AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...PCPN SHOULD END...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REQUIRES CARRYING LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. NW FLOW/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. TEMPS ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Monday has "who cares" written all over it, if you live below about 800' in sne. Esp in eastern areas. The western zones around the CT Valley could actually get a burst of decent snow as the better omega hits them and also earlier in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Esp in eastern areas. The western zones around the CT Valley could actually get a burst of decent snow as the better omega hits them and also earlier in the morning. Yeah I think Litchfield County could be in decent shape but I'd really like to see this thing a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Yeah I think Litchfield County could be in decent shape but I'd really like to see this thing a bit further south. Yeah it will probably be a 4-5 hour burst, then RA-, and then dryslot...unless it somehow tracks about 75-100 miles south. I hoping something like last night's Euro would end up about 50 miles south....but knew that was a long shot given other guidance. So it will most likely just be a quick burst of snow at the onset and then dry slot pretty quickly after maybe a brief change to RA-. Maybe someone can pick up 3-4" though in the high terrain if very lucky, but at this point probably 1-2" in the hills is all I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Yeah it will probably be a 4-5 hour burst, then RA-, and then dryslot...unless it somehow tracks about 75-100 miles south. I hoping something like last night's Euro would end up about 50 miles south....but knew that was a long shot given other guidance. So it will most likely just be a quick burst of snow at the onset and then dry slot pretty quickly after maybe a brief change to RA-. Maybe someone can pick up 3-4" though in the high terrain if very lucky, but at this point probably 1-2" in the hills is all I would say. I don't think the Euro is going to be that bad here. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Probably a good thing this is south of the BM 5 days out. The ensembles are very close to the OP track, but seem just a tad further north with thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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