Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 i get as excited about a 100 degree heat wave as much as you get excited about 2 feet of snow Bingo here! Heat wave Meteorology is fascinating in my book. I have made some elaborate posts in the past regarding them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Still got almost 5 days for that to come north. Probably congrats Organized Low by Tuesday..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Cold, raw, cloudy windy day.. nice out there 41..heavier jackets required. Winter's back wow, thats amazing mostly sunny 51 here 50 at bdr mid 50s easily today, sun feels awesome! Enjoy those beers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Think about this region and its geographical location. Snow is really what excels in this area..so it's not hard to see that New England as a whole gives birth to snow enthusiasts. I mean, I wouldn't expect to find a thread started about how 8C/KM lapse rates and 0-1KM shear of 300-400m2/s2 will lead to the risk of long track tornadoes..or something like that. Well put. What type of "interesting" wx does New England get more frequently than most other parts of CONUS? (And BD drizzle is NOT my definition of "interesting"!) The average return period for a decent tropical system is what, 10 years? About the same for a tornado stronger than EF1? Heat waves longer than 4-5 days are quite uncommon, and triple-digit temps even moreso (or why last July was so much discussed.) Yet somebody in NWE gets a 20" dumping almost every winter, and I'm limiting that to folks at under 1,500'. I agree that floods are #2 and can generate plenty of board buzz, but snow is what NWE does best, so its near-obsession shouldn't be a surprise, even when it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It looks like the models have not been so bullish with the PV over the last 24 hrs. The west coast hasn't changed all that much. The se ridge bumped slightly north, but the biggest difference to me is the confluence and also..the Hudson Bay ridge is a little further west..thus the s/w responsible is too, allowing for it to come a little north. Perhaps it's not done coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Well put. What type of "interesting" wx does New England get more frequently than most other parts of CONUS? (And BD drizzle is NOT my definition of "interesting"!) The average return period for a decent tropical system is what, 10 years? About the same for a tornado stronger than EF1? Heat waves longer than 4-5 days are quite uncommon, and triple-digit temps even moreso (or why last July was so much discussed.) Yet somebody in NWE gets a 20" dumping almost every winter, and I'm limiting that to folks at under 1,500'. I agree that floods are #2 and can generate plenty of board buzz, but snow is what NWE does best, so its near-obsession shouldn't be a surprise, even when it's overdone. Don't get me wrong..I love all wx. I don't need an F3 to come through my block...I'm happy with a tstm that produces good CG. However, winter wx is where we excel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 It looks like the models have not been so bullish with the PV over the last 24 hrs. The west coast hasn't changed all that much. The se ridge bumped slightly north, but the biggest difference to me is the confluence and also..the Hudson Bay ridge is a little further west..thus the s/w responsible is too, allowing for it to come a little north. Perhaps it's not done coming this way. AWT's are starting to fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Oh my... strike the alarm... some spots might jackpot with 3-5"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 While models agree on a light ...maybe low end moderate type event for 60-72 hours out, the QPF maxima have been placed all over the place so it is unclear where the best turn out will be - diffused mechanics aloft perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Bingo here! Heat wave Meteorology is fascinating in my book. I have made some elaborate posts in the past regarding them. Particularly the nice little pattern we have going here -- 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 hopefully i can manage a sleet to rain event instead of what the euro shows Yea, we dont want you killing any furry animals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 AWT's are starting to fly LOL, well it's the confluence more than anything. It's still a little early, but your AWT's were for Thursday. Still plenty of time for that. Monday's storm looked like it could be some snow at the onset, as Will pointed out a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 LOL, well it's the confluence more than anything. It's still a little early, but your AWT's were for Thursday. Still plenty of time for that. Monday's storm looked like it could be some snow at the onset, as Will pointed out a few days ago. Think we might end up with 8-12 inches total from both..more in some places TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Mostly snow for us Wednesday - Thursday also Love that north trend on the QPF http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 That could be an exciting event nearing the end of the month. That is the event that was more impressively signaled by the teleconnectors yesterday, still as this morning that is true, too. The NAO takes a nose dive over the next week to 10 days and the PNA, after a brief recession goes smartly positive ... That idea of a longitudinal wave cutting east thrugh MV needs to be watched in that time frame, because with the back ground canvas being what it is, should any SPV dynamics dangle into the Lakes while that is cutting through, the two could very easily coitus on the EC and give birth to statistically overdue spring event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Scott and I were just mentioning this to one another. Joe D'aleo released a blog recently discussing ...well, proving really, that the ENSO took a back seat to the AO/NAO over the last two seasons; much of this goes with that... There may be something to SSWless winters and the ending AO/NAO leading into mid and late spring that correlates to summer patterns. As we head from April 15 to June 15, the flow everywhere relaxes and the wave lengths shrink. Teleconnectors have far less correlation... the gradients become so weak in general that there aren't really any in situ pattern drives. Which one of those Newtonian physical definitions was it, not 2. Maybe 1 or 3, where "an object in motion will stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force". That definition is applicable in mid to late spring... whereas the last known pattern influence sticks heading into mid summer (or one related to) because there are no new forces acting on the system when the summer doldrums kick in. You mentioned it elsewhere...as you age you recognize things. Guys like Jerry/Steve have more of that in the bank that you and I but it still comes into play. Once the pattern broke and didn't show a strong sign of coming back within 2 weeks I felt we were cooked. Likewise I think the snow of a few days ago and now the cold is a clear signal we've flipped again. Things have changed. The cycle of 45 day weather patterns seems to be intact...and we may be one cool/cold cycle for at least a few weeks. Blows that it didn't happen 2 weeks ago when we had a better shot. I wouldn't make it sound like it's about finding snow in every pattern. Sure some joke around and call for snow in the crummiest patterns..but I think we do a good job on saying whether or not the pattern sucks. Think about this region and its geographical location. Snow is really what excels in this area..so it's not hard to see that New England as a whole gives birth to snow enthusiasts. I mean, I wouldn't expect to find a thread started about how 8C/KM lapse rates and 0-1KM shear of 300-400m2/s2 will lead to the risk of long track tornadoes..or something like that. I thought the epic March rains of last year were discussed very well. I'm sure of May 2006 occurred again, we would have the same disco. I have a slight flood fetish, but mostly due to anomalous nature of the pattern that brings these floods to sne. Of course heavy rains don't necessarily inspire excitement for many like heavy snow does, but that's the way it is for most locations. Scott don't get me wrong....I'm not here half the year because I like winter weather more than any other season. Hurricanes interest me and severe storms too....but those are so rare. So it wasn't a criticism. It's just that we naturally focus way more on snow. You don't see 100 page threads about impending 70 degree weather in March...we just don't collectively care all that much and it's not that exciting. The AWT stuff...I know it's in jest but let's face it most thought winter was coming back on 2/20 not 3/20...then 3/1 etc. This is NOT AWT, and I think we're darn lucky to be having any of these threats coming up. i get as excited about a 100 degree heat wave as much as you get excited about 2 feet of snow 100 degrees does nothing for me. If we get into the 100s...I'd like to see a 105 or 110 around here in my lifetime...that'd impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Mostly snow for us Wednesday - Thursday also Love that north trend on the QPF http://raleighwx.ame...2zgfsp72114.gif That north trend that everyone is excited about is not going to stop now, with the PV relaxing and the se ridge flexing, dont be suprised that this turns into a ski country special, especially being 5 days out. Monday looks ok for ski country unless a few sleet pellets followed by rain is your idea of fun/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 LOL, well it's the confluence more than anything. It's still a little early, but your AWT's were for Thursday. Still plenty of time for that. Monday's storm looked like it could be some snow at the onset, as Will pointed out a few days ago. Will's been talking about the potential for a few inches up his way for days and apparently correctly so. That could be an exciting event nearing the end of the month. That is the event that was more impressively signaled by the teleconnectors yesterday, still as this morning that is true, too. The NAO is takes a nose dive over the next week to 10 days and the PNA, after a brief recession goes smartly positive ... That idea of a longitudinal wave cutting east thrugh MV needs to be watched in that time frame, because with the back ground canvas being what it is, should any SPV dynamics dangle into the Lakes while that is cutting through, the two could very easily coitus on the EC and give birth to statistically overdue spring event. What strikes me of late is that the GFS is signaling no return to warmth. People rip it all the time but in a very vague sense....after 2/5 or so it was always erratic with temps never signaling a solid return to cold and having cutters here and there. It was right in leaning ugly. As far out as we can see now to 4/3 it's nothing but "threats"...and that's an EPIC break from the last 45 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Will's been talking about the potential for a few inches up his way for days and apparently correctly so. What strikes me of late is that the GFS is signaling no return to warmth. People rip it all the time but in a very vague sense....after 2/5 or so it was always erratic with temps never signaling a solid return to cold and having cutters here and there. It was right in leaning ugly. As far out as we can see now to 4/3 it's nothing but "threats"...and that's an EPIC break from the last 45 days. The euro did pretty good in keeping the crappy pattern iirc. I thought it was the GFS that was too insistent on developing riding in CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 That could be an exciting event nearing the end of the month. That is the event that was more impressively signaled by the teleconnectors yesterday, still as this morning that is true, too. The NAO takes a nose dive over the next week to 10 days and the PNA, after a brief recession goes smartly positive ... That idea of a longitudinal wave cutting east thrugh MV needs to be watched in that time frame, because with the back ground canvas being what it is, should any SPV dynamics dangle into the Lakes while that is cutting through, the two could very easily coitus on the EC and give birth to statistically overdue spring event. Definitely some interesting opportunities beyond Thursday for the reason you alluded too. Multi model agreement about the NAO and even west coast ridging. Whether it produces??? Time will tell, but at least the pattern allows for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Nice 6hr frame for CNE/NNE on the 12z Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GEFS are pretty far north with the 850/700 lows for Thursday. One would think the surface depiction would come north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Blows that it didn't happen 2 weeks ago when we had a better shot. Yeah - winter is up against tough odds down here now. As we enter the last week of March even a -17 below average high temp still nets out above freezing. And we add a degree every couple of days. But I'll never forget the April Fool's Day Blizzard in '97. My memory is fuzzy, but I think the temps hit 70 not three days before the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GEFS are pretty far north with the 850/700 lows for Thursday. One would think the surface depiction would come north as well. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=2mTMP March 28-29, 1984 is the top CIPS analog for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 That was a fun storm in 3/1984.....got a foot of snow below Albany. It was a pretty wet snow, but we managed that during the high sunlight hours in the low lands of the Hudson Valley. Two weeks earlier we had a wild storm with 15" of combined snow/sleet topped by glaze. http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=2mTMP March 28-29, 1984 is the top CIPS analog for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen_CentralMass_Wx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Cold, raw, cloudy windy day.. nice out there 41..heavier jackets required. Winter's back wimpy.. try wearing a windbreaker spring jacket all through winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Not as much digging from the s/w compared to 00z on this run for Mon on the 12z EC. Still a decent little event for NNE verbatim though. Maybe SN>Mix>-SN for the higher terrain of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Not as much digging from the s/w compared to 00z on this run for Mon. Still a decent little event for NNE verbatim though. Maybe SN>Mix>-SN for the higher terrain of SNE? Yeah a little less juicy and perhaps a little warmer after 18z Monday, on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 We're tracking!!! Who-hooo!! watching trends, seeing patterns resolve, comparing models Good times are here again (even if it produces nothing much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Yeah a little less juicy and perhaps a little warmer after 18z Monday, on this run. I'm torn...I would possibly risk my 5" of snow on the EC and take 1" of glop on Monday if it meant increasing my chances for Wed/Thu. Then again I like having this event in the 2-3d range...not that my hypothetical gambles even matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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