Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Winter goes out with a bang as prancers and dancers forced to put tutus and ballerina shoes away for a few weeks MAIN POINTS: - ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING INTO THE RGN WITH COLDER AIR SAT INTO MON - LOW PRES MON INTO TUE...LINGERING POSSIBLY INTO WED NGT/THURS - ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BY THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DETAILS: MONDAY... ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE FCST RGN BY AFTN AS A SFC WRM FRNT SLIDES E THRU THE RGN. SLGT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WRM FRNT... SFC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THRU THE RGN INTO TUE MORN. WILL SEE SW FLOW BACK OUT OF THE NW WITH DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE REAR OF THE SYS. THIS POSES CHALLENGES WITH REGARDS TO POPS FOR THE FCST. WITH SUCCINCT SIGNALS OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES FOR MONDAY WITHIN FCST GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE GONE HIGH CHC TO CATEGORICAL LIKELY FOR WRN ZONES FOR THE AFTN INTO EVNG PD...YET WITH POTENTIAL DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYS...THIS LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS INTO LATE MON. ASIDE CAA AND FALLING THICKNESSES IN WAKE OF THE SYS. WILL SEE WARM MAX TEMPS FOR MON WITH STRONG SLY FLOW AND MUCH OF THE RGN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT NOT FALL IMPRESSIVELY THRU THE EVNG HRS AS SFC FRNT WILL ONLY BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE FCST AREA BY TUE MORNING. ...SHOULD ECMWF VERIFY WE MAY SEE SNOW ALONG S NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE COLD AIR PUSHES S AIDED BY NW FLOW...20-30KTS AT MID-LVLS. MAY SEE NW GUSTS THRU THE DAY AROUND 25KTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...THEN WEAKEN INTO EVNG. MDL SOLNS SOMEWHAT SLOW ON PROGRESSING COLD AIR S...SKIES LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY... WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES TO CONTINUE TO PUSH S AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSES INTO THE RGN WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR. ECMWF IS SLOWEST ON PROGRESSION AND LINGERS THE ELONGATED AREA ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND INTO WED EVNG. HAVE KEPT SLGT POPS ALONG THE SRN ZONES IN ACCORDANCE. SHOULD THE ECMWF VERIFY LIKELY THE PRECIP OUTCOME WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OVERALL ITS IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT MDL SOLNS DIFFER ON BOTH THE STRENGTH...PROGRESSION...AND NATURE OF COLD AIR ASSOC WITH THE SFC ARCTIC HIGH. GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COLDER SOLN...WITH H85 TEMPS PLUMMETING -14 TO -16C THURS INTO FRI. SFC N/NWLY FLOW PREVAILS PERHAPS WITH SOME STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD MIX DOWN WITH LIKELY SUN...SO COULD SEE SOME NW GUSTS DURING MIDDAY-AFTN TIMEFRAMES. GFS HINTS AT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE FRI MORNING PD WITH SN...BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN THE SOLN IS LOW AND HAVE GONE SLGT POPS FOR SNOW FOR THE NERN ZONES. HAVE GONE BELOW-NORMAL WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE PD IN CONSIDERATION THAT BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLNS HIGHLIGHT A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE RGN WITH H85 ATTRIBUTES AT OR BELOW -10C UNDER N/NWLY FLOW. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Cold and snow or cold and dry..either way chuck a few into one another's eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 How about normal wx returns with a vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I'm betting temps bust high of current predictions. I really hope it does cool down some, it was almost too warm today in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 How about normal wx returns with a vengeance. small small spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Can't wait. Save this weather for golf and baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Can't wait. Save this weather for golf and baseball. drove by the public course today on my way home from work, it was packed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Sounds like good skiing weather. 3 days left in the period...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 gfy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Good news. 2 weeks left for March to put some more points on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 drove by the public course today on my way home from work, it was packed!! There's still snow on the courses up here. Going to be a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 There's pretty much zero doubt we have below normal temps for much of the next week after tomorrow....except Monday which will have a brief torch. The airmass especially for later next week is the one that could be extremely cold for late March. Snow chances overall are probably a long shot outside of some potential front end flakes on Monday...the mid week event right now is kind of trying to thread a needle in between the suffocating PV and the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 small small spring? Probably wasted cold for a while. Blah. Congrats for those that love cold and dry during late March I guess. Maybe...just maybe we pull something out, but it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 There's pretty much zero doubt we have below normal temps for much of the next week after tomorrow....except Monday which will have a brief torch. The airmass especially for later next week is the one that could be extremely cold for late March. Snow chances overall are probably a long shot outside of some potential front end flakes on Monday...the mid week event right now is kind of trying to thread a needle in between the suffocating PV and the SE ridge. Probably wasted cold for a while. Blah. Congrats for those that love cold and dry during late March I guess. Maybe...just maybe we pull something out, but it doesn't look good. You guys are just little rays of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 We have 3 good to very good snow chances next week. Not sure why debbies are downing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 We have 3 good to very good snow chances next week. Not sure why debbies are downing Three chances?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Three chances?? Monday Wednesday and Thursday. I envision a bunch of AWT's flying around next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Monday Wednesday and Thursday. I envision a bunch of AWT's flying around next week Well I don't count the potential of a mangled coating on Monday. If anyone has a chance at anything next week it may be CT, but we are going to need that wave to not be flat, or for that wave that the euro shows off the coast of NC, to move closer. Otherwise it may be As Weenies Think. The PV seems overpowering at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 Well I don't count the potential of a mangled coating on Monday. If anyone has a chance at anything next week it may be CT, but we are going to need that wave to not be flat, or for that wave that the euro shows off the coast of NC, to move closer. Otherwise it may be As Weenies Think. The PV seems overpowering at the moment. Not with that Se ridge there..no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Not with that Se ridge there..no way Well I hope you're right. I'd love one last good bye from winter as this month has bitterly disappointed around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I hope we get at least 1 event worth tracking and measuring. I'm a bit pessimistic I guess, as much as I want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 We have 3 good to very good snow chances next week. Not sure why debbies are downing 21 salute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Looks sweet for you! Back on the horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Congrats, Have fun, I am snowmobiling out of jacktown this weekend winter lives in the NW......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Looks sweet for you! Back on the horse Next week looks like a preservation week with chances of decent snow showing up last minute. Hoping we pull a rabbit out of the hat. Japans snowstorm last week usually means trough here week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Congrats, Have fun, I am snowmobiling out of jacktown this weekend winter lives in the NW......... Enjoy, beautiful area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 May ski country get buried!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I'm glad we have a thread for a 10% chance of 1" of snow that melts in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I'm glad we have a thread for a 10% chance of 1" of snow that melts in an hour At least its a greater chance than most of our severe wx threats verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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