Reed Stough Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 The 12Z GFS shows some ominious potential during this time starting on March 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Also, the 8,048 hour model run in my basement shows a HECS for all of the Chicago region. And there's only about 1000 runs left until verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Meh, it's not a problem as long as we try to keep it as general as possible. Forum activity has slowed down anyway as we move toward Spring. I wouldn't have posted CAPE/LI and stuff like that but I think it's possible to pick out large scale pattern signals that may be favorable. The amount of long range agreement/disagreement among ensembles is also something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted March 16, 2011 Author Share Posted March 16, 2011 Even if it doesn't pan out - which most likely will not. It would be an interesting situation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Meh, it's not a problem as long as we try to keep it as general as possible. Forum activity has slowed down anyway as we move toward Spring. I wouldn't have posted CAPE/LI and stuff like that but I think it's possible to pick out large scale pattern signals that may be favorable. The amount of long range agreement/disagreement among ensembles is also something to look at. I'm pretty open minded, but posting CAPE and Lifted Index maps off a 300 hour GFS, that isn't general. I'm kind of a fan of trying to guess severe up to 10 days out off the ECMWF.int site Euro, a good 850 mb LLJ with a good 500 mb height gradient crossing at an angle is a good quick look. It doesn't implicitly account for moisture or instability, but usually a couple of days of return flow does the trick unless a real beast of a cold front has scoured the Gulf. Monday in the Eastern Plains has some potential, but I wouldn't have started a thread over it. Now that ECMWF 500 mb plots show 850 mb temps, I can now get a feel for where capping may be an issue. I'd like my 850 mb winds just a touch less backed than predicted below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 4 words, way way too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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