Japan Nuclear Crisis Part II

[winterymix]

http://www.epa.gov/japan2011/

EPA will provide daily data summaries of our radiation air monitoring efforts. We will continue to keep all RadNet data available in the current online database.

March 18, 2011

As of 4:00pm (EDT) EPA's RadNet radiation air monitors across the U.S. show typical fluctuations in background radiation levels. The levels detected are far below levels of concern.

As of 12:00pm (EDT) EPA's RadNet radiation air monitors across the U.S. show typical fluctuations in background radiation levels. The levels detected are far below levels of concern.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The radiation in the USA stuff is a joke. Really it's a non story. Scientifically interesting but of no threat at all.

I guess I'm not surprised by the lack of real answers from the experts but it would appear they have control of the situation to my untrained eye. They can keep things from getting much worse but are they going to be able to stop the low to mid level leaking?

That's going to be the big question.

[MJW155]

<br /><br /><br />

You are comparing apples to oranges. They are entirely different products. Radon originates from decaying natural uranium in the ground, and the only reason it's toxic to humans and animals is that it's concentrated in basements, attics and buildings which are not well ventilated. Radon causes 10,000 cases of cancer each year, but that's because most people haven't tested their basements/attics - or have fixed the main causes: basement floor & wall cracks, open areas around pipes into the house, etc. So it's YOUR FAULT (or the homeowner/building owner). You/they have the ability to fix the problem.<br /><br />

With radionuclides, it's not a matter of choice - humans/animals/plant life are exposed from reactor releases, nuke disasters or weapons testing. You and your fellow brethren or pets don't have a say in the matter unless you flee. Most times you're at the mercy of the weather; which way the wind blows. Nasty substances which will effect you are Cesium - which can travel thousands of miles. Strontium - you MUST remember this one from the 1950s duck & cover/cold war stuff. Then radioactive Iodine, and the rest. This is the collection of elements that is of concern from Japan's early days of the disaster, in addition to noble gasses, which are now over the United States. As days progress and the danger increases..so too the radioactive emissions increase...with the potential of endangering populations. We don't know how much or when, we only know that as the radioactivity and danger increases, so does the effects elsewhere. <br /><br />

Yea saying it's not concentrated enough to harm humans is just a silly argument. It shouldn't be there in the first place. I don't care if it's 1/1000000% and can't harm humans. It's still greater than 0.0%. And what happens in the coming days and weeks? Even if 1 person gets sick, it's 1 person too many.

[johnc]

I wouldn't consider it under control. It's just not getting worse apparently. But it's spewing out radiation. When the winds shift onshore it'll be even more concerning.

[Mallow]

Yea saying it's not concentrated enough to harm humans is just a silly argument. It shouldn't be there in the first place. I don't care if it's 1/1000000% and can't harm humans. It's still greater than 0.0%. And what happens in the coming days and weeks? Even if 1 person gets sick, it's 1 person too many.

0 people will get sick due to increased radiation (from the Fukushima disaster) in the US.

[samdman95]

When are winds expected to shift back onshore?

[Mt.Zoniac]

MJW - MESSENGER - JOHNC:    I think we're all saying the same thing. Right now it's not catastrophic for the U.S. as it is for Japan, but we don't know what is going to happen in the coming weeks. Remediation efforts may be successful, or they may fail and the things will spew high levels of radiation. We just need ACCURATE DETAILS of what's going on (and we really don't have those details at this point). We need lots of facts, numbers, measurements, release rates, plume composition data, radiochemical data - - - you name it - we need it. So far it is all missing.

[Ginx snewx]

The radiation in the USA stuff is a joke. Really it's a non story. Scientifically interesting but of no threat at all.

I guess I'm not surprised by the lack of real answers from the experts but it would appear they have control of the situation to my untrained eye. They can keep things from getting much worse but are they going to be able to stop the low to mid level leaking?

That's going to be the big question.

Control is not a word I would use right now. The new pics show just how much damage to piping, transformers there is. I can not imagine how they are going to rebuild an efficient system on all reactors and fuel pools. Not trying to be negative but realistically there is so much that can go wrong just attempting to turn power on. I pray all goes right but I am very skeptical. Main concerns over 4 fuel pool and cracked reactors. The images are brutal.

[Ginx snewx]

MJW - MESSENGER - JOHNC: I think we're all saying the same thing. Right now it's not catastrophic for the U.S. as it is for Japan, but we don't know what is going to happen in the coming weeks. Remediation efforts may be successful, or they may fail and the things will spew high levels of radiation. We just need ACCURATE DETAILS of what's going on (and we really don't have those details at this point). We need lots of facts, numbers, measurements, release rates, plume composition data - - - you name it - we need it. So far it is all missing.

Well the data is there and when it needs to be told it will be released, right now just look at the images, it speaks volumes.there is a vast amount of data being taken in civilian areas, if spikes occur and it gets dangerous people will be promptly told. Why do we need the data? The people who are going to tell us when needed will, our Govt is all over this. Right now they have a 50 mile limit for good reason. I trust if things deteriorate we will know ASAP

[Amped]

Radiation over the ocean is almost a non issue. It may effect the fishing industry.

Nobody lives over the ocean

Boats don't even travel at the bottom of the ocean, where the radioactive elements will likely end up.

The problems they had at ****** were due to the fact that the radiation stayed on the ground where it effected people, crops , livestock and the logging industry.

You can still buy many of these radioactive products in Belarus.

[Organizing Low]

Radiation From Japan Has Now Reached Northern California

http://www.krcrtv.co...244/detail.html

REDDING, Calif. -- Small levels of radiation from Japan were detected by a federal radiation monitor in Sacramento Friday morning - the first sign that radiation from the country's unstable Fukushima plant has reached the U.S.

The U.S. Government has an extensive network of radiation monitors around the county, including systems operated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy.

One of these monitoring stations in Sacramento detected miniscule quantities of the radioactive isotope xenon-133. The origin was determined to be consistent with a release from the Fukushima reactors. The levels detected were approximately 0.1 disintegrations per second per cubic meter of air (0.1 Bq/m3), which is roughly about one-millionth the dose rate a person normally receives from rocks, bricks, sun and other natural background resources.

Xenon-133 is a radioactive noble gas produced during nuclear fission that poses no concern at the detected level.

[09-10 analogy]

Look out for the Doomsday Shroud:

[Jebman]

I am getting more concerned for the Japanese, and for the US with every passing day, with respect to the reactors and possible catastrophic radiation releases.

I've got a bad feeling about this

[johnc]

When are winds expected to shift back onshore?

tomorrow-ish

[Ginx snewx]

This is a screen capture I just took. Look at those coolant pipes dangling,massive issues. I really think a massive cement dome will be the final outcome. JMHO

[Mt.Zoniac]

&lt;br /&gt;Well the data is there and when it needs to be told it will be released, right now just look at the images, it speaks volumes.there is a vast amount of data being taken in civilian areas, if spikes occur and it gets dangerous people will be promptly told. Why do we need the data? The people who are going to tell us when needed will, our Govt is all over this. Right now they have a 50 mile limit for good reason. I trust if things deteriorate we will know ASAP&lt;br /&gt;

<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />GINX:    I don't trust ANY "government or corporate" agency or company filtering data so they can spoon out the pablum. I want to see the DATA and read THE ANALYSIS by the WORLDWIDE EXPERTS myself. You want to trust the Corporation running the plant??? HHHHAhAAAHAHaaaaaaHHAAAAAAAA!!!!

[Mt.Zoniac]

<br />This is a screen capture I just took. Look at those coolant pipes dangling,massive issues. I really think a massive cement dome will be the final outcome. JMHO<img src="http://184.72.239.143/mu/42d4d0af-1e0d-5e18.jpg" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

Ginx: I'll cut you a break......but haven't you ever READ ANY -EVEN RECENT- ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN DISASTER??? Cement DOES NOT WORK. It deteriorates and crumbles in on itself. It's useless as a longterm fix.

[MJW155]

0 people will get sick due to increased radiation (from the Fukushima disaster) in the US.

You don't know that. There are people that die from exposure to direct sunlight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xeroderma_pigmentosum

I'm not saying people w/ XP are at risk. I'm just pointing out that if something simple as being outside can kill you, even minute traces of radiation may cause problems. Will it? Who knows.

For people to just dismiss this and say no one will get sick is a pretty cavalier attitude. I mean, you probably are correct. I would even say you are 99.9% most likely correct. But to me, that doesn't matter. It should still be 0.0%. For the plant to be having this many problems, it should never have been built in the first place.

[Ginx snewx]

I haven't chimed in on this topic but work at similar GE BWR. I've read and seen a lot of discussion on this...both on internet and on TV. Some good, some bad. My perspective:

1. This was worse than TMI the moment U1 had an H2 explosion last Saturday. The fact that the Japanese Gov't is only now thinking this is on the same level tells you all you need to know about their response/capabilities.

2. Their Emergency Response Organization seems inept - though some consideration has to be given to the magnitude of the natural disaster and its effect on people.

3. 50 people combatting severe accident problems on 4 Rx's plus two others needing attention - is not enough people.

4. The Japanese apparently did not have some of the Severe Accident mitigation procedures US nuclear developed over a decade ago. Wouldn't have prevented the problem but would have helped frame recovery.

5. Information from TEPCO released to public is not to be trusted for accuracy..

6. Information from the Japanese governement released to public is not to be trusted for accuracy.

7. U4 has a gaping hole in the Rx Bldg near where the Spent Fuel Pool should be.

8. Rx Bldgs (apparently) did not have hardened vent piping - which resulted in pressure leakage out of the RB vent ducts and into the RB - where it detonated on U1 and U3. U2 took the detonation inside primary containment / drywell - not sure why - possibly didn't want a repeat of U1 & U3. Not sure if this was a good move or not.

Observations:

1. Getting an EDG running at U5 and/or U6 is good news (if true).

2. Getting an offsite power line is on a necessary precondition to get power back to U1-U4. Still need to connect cables from the power source to motors or switchgear in the plant. It's likely that switchgear are flooded / damaged and they will have to determ motor connections at the switchgear and bolt power cable directly to motors. Maybe they will get lucky in some cases.

3. Even if they get electrical power restored to some loads, that's not guarantee that there isn't mechanical damage in piping systems (or to pump/motor mountings) that will prevent getting flow to either the core or SFPs.

4. Media talk of battery powered cooling is rubbish. There are no dc powered cooling pumps. DC power is mainly used for controls, Motor-Operated Valve operation, etc.

5. Believe NOTHING you hear from TEPCO or the Japanese Gov't at this point. They do not understand plant status, haven't had since this started, and have no way of monitoring key parameters at U1-U4 in all liklihood. Plants are dark.

6. Its likely they have melted U1-U4 to a significant degree and it wouldn't surprise if one or more (if not all) primary containments will have at least partially failed.

7. The SFP's at U3 and U4 are in trouble or have had a near complete loss of water inventory.

8. A lot of steam has been leaking out of U3 for days. Not sure if this is SFP or Rx Vessel.

9. U2 may have damaged their primary containment / torus during H2 explosion Sunday.

Questions:

1. Why has it taken this long to get temporary power sources to the Units? Understand they allegedly got a U6 EDG back and have some power back to U5 and U6 (hopefully for RHR and SFP cooling).

2. Why wasn't every portable generator and cable reel in Japan on site four days ago?

3. Why are they relying on an offsite power line that may require transformers to step voltage down to motor level?

4. Why were helicopter water drops tried from that altitude? Insanely ineffective.

5. Why were the initial fire fighters sent in to man fire hoses to spray on U3 Rx Bldg and not put hoses in fixed holders so personnel could back out into low dose areas?

6. Why were hook and ladder trucks (with higher discharge capability) only brought in after initial fire water attempts failed? Did anyone tell them that the RB Spent Fuel Pool is likely above the elevation they could reach with conventional hand held hoses?

7. Why did the Japanese Gov't only set up a real command centerat TEPCO property about a day ago?

8. Does TEPCO have a clue as to what any plant status is? If so, how? There is no ac or dc power in plant (save maybe U5/U6 now). The entire plant would be dark w/ dc batteries long since depleted.

Prediction:

This is going to get worse before it gets better. Optimistically, it gets no worse and the whole thing melts down and is buried with rubble that can be entombed. These people have shown no ability to work the problem, for whatever reason.

Great post from someone who obviously knows. I share your thoughts, sad to say but it appears like I said OC

[Jebman]

I've been trying to view this page on wikipedia http://en.wikipedia....ake_and_tsunami No dice.

Too many nuclear disaster enthusiasts trying to view it.

[Ginx snewx]

<br /><br /><br />

I'll cut you a break......but haven't you ever READ ANY -EVEN RECENT- ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN DISASTER??? Cement DOES NOT WORK. It deteriorates and crumbles in on itself. It's useless as a longterm fix.

Right now, temporary dome will allow for control, then they can lead shield the entire site or something,. IDK what cutting me a break means but geez thanks.

[ArtRosen]

Some thoughts on the current situation:

No, I highly doubt that any radiation that reaches us in the US will have any short term or long term effects on health of Americans. I'm not selfish though and I've always cared more about the Japanese people - great the Americans are safe, but we aren't the only people on the planet. I have a grave concern for the people of Japan not only from this, but the earthquake and the tsunami.

I believe that the Japanese government is controlling the flow of PUBLIC information because when the information is bad news, their stock market drops. Since there won't be any mushroom cloud of an explosion on one or more of the reactors, they can say whatever they want to. If another hydrogen explosion or some kind of fire occurs again, all bets are off.

I love how the media is reporting that somehow electricity is going to be the savior of this problem. Maybe it'll prevent 5 and 6 from having long term problems, as they don't seem to be too badly damaged, but giving power to reactors 1-4, each of them have been damaged on some scales, is like giving power to a house with no air conditioning and expecting it to be cool during a 100 degree day. If the coolant systems don't work, and I assume they don't, then what's the next rabbit they're going to pull out of their hat? Cement? Really? That's somehow going to BLOCK radiation from spilling out?

The IAEA has not, nor has the NRC confirmed a partial or full meltdown at any of the sites. At least publicly. I wonder when governments and corporations are going to stop working in their own self interests and start working for the interest of the common citizen. When are the people who were supposed to stay in their home and close their windows supposed to go outside? What about food? What about their pets? Nothing is being made public about these people who were not told to evacuate but rather just told to stay where you are and close your windows and don't go outside.

The flow of information for the public has been disasterous and I'm sure many people, including the Prime Minister of Japan, will lose their jobs if not more because of this. I don't know the Japanese constitution, but what they're doing has to be criminal on some level.

[Mt.Zoniac]

ARTROSEN & GRAVESTONE DOJI: ............. You guys put too much trust in "the fox that guards the henhouse" so to speak. You think that the International Atomic Energy Agency or the World Health Org are going to keep you posted, when there are life/death consequences happening right now? Look at what happened during the Russian disaster....most of Europe's subsequent effects were not even reported!! There was Cesium on the ground in may European countries that they never acknowledged.

I'd like to read many Independent experts, not those hemmed in by political correctness and allegiances.

http://www.ncbi.nlm....pubmed/20002040

Radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl meltdown spread over 40% of Europe (including Austria, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Romania, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, France, Greece, Iceland, Slovenia) and wide territories in Asia (including Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Emirates, China), northern Africa, and North America. Nearly 400 million people resided in territories that were contaminated with radioactivity at a level higher than 4 kBq/m(2) (0.11 Ci/km(2)) from April to July 1986. Nearly 5 million people (including, more than 1 million children) still live with dangerous levels of radioactive contamination in Belarus, Ukraine, and European Russia. Claims that the Chernobyl radioactive fallout adds "only 2%" to the global radioactive background overshadows the fact that many affected territories had previously dangerously high levels of radiation. Even if the current level is low, there was high irradiation in the first days and weeks after the Chernobyl catastrophe. There is no reasonable explanation for the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Health Organization (Chernobyl Forum, 2005) have completely neglected the consequences of radioactive contamination in other countries, which received more than 50% of the Chernobyl radionuclides, and addressed concerns only in Belarus, Ukraine, and European Russia."

[HoarfrostHubb]

How can they go in and fix anything if the place is hot?

Send in the roombas

[Amped]

I computed some 06z gfs model trajectories during what appeared to me, to be the most dire time due to the wind direction (Sunday night through Tuesday).

These are started at the site of the plant, ran forward 36 hours starting at 00z Sunday night. Each new plot starts 6 hours later, and run forward for 36 hours. There are using model vertical velocity. The height I choose was 250 m, though I'm sure someone more knowledge on dispersion could critique me on what the optimal height is to use...

Nice job, first time I've seen actual parcel trajectories as a model output. Keeping track of individual air molecules is usually not a priority when they're all the same.

There's always a chance that the military decides to seed the clouds, the GFS can't predict that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1549366/How-we-made-the-Chernobyl-rain.html

[needbiggerboat]

<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />GINX: I don't trust ANY "government or corporate" agency or company filtering data so they can spoon out the pablum. I want to see the DATA and read THE ANALYSIS by the WORLDWIDE EXPERTS myself. You want to trust the Corporation running the plant??? HHHHAhAAAHAHaaaaaaHHAAAAAAAA!!!!

[Ginx snewx]

GINX - thx for your comment above. That screen cap you took is revealing. Not sure which Unit it is (3 or 4) but the damage is tremendous. I have doubts that they will be able to re-establish core cooling even if they get power back. There are several options to restore flow but what I suspect is that there is enough mechanical damage to piping systems and/or Rx Vessel integrity, that they won't be able to get flow to the vessel or Spent Fuel Pools (SFP) even if they get a motor re-energeized. Everyone thinks that now that they've got a power line (allegedly) run to the site, that all is well. That's could end up being the easiest part of the job. Now you have to go into the plant - figure out what is intact - can it be energized - will it pump water - is it connected to a water source...etc. I have dim hopes that they will be able to do that in anything short of weeks for all 4 Rx's that are severly damaged. Even if they get some flow - they may not have a coolable core geometry remaining and could continue to melt fuel for quite a while. I hope I'm wrong but we are 6 days into this and U1 - U4 have to be substantially melted down. TMI melted a lot of their core and were only w/o cooling flow for a few hours. We are talking a week here...

Were this post-accident performance to occur in the US, the utilitty would likely be in criminal violation of Federal Law, particularly with respect to their Emergency Response Organization, it would seem.

I am a very large facility manager myself and fully understand all of your salient points. Massive undertaking just to get power, all I keep thinking is no way. I walked through my plant today and tried to imagine fixing it with rad suits on and a massive debris field in the dark,working with previously submerged switch gear, salt water to boot, motors,pump seals, god awful.

[Amped]

How can they go in and fix anything if the place is hot?

Send in the roombas

They're sending in a team of the elite to do the job. This team includes The Cast of Jersey Shore, Lindsay Lohan, Paris Hilton, Charlie Sheen, Sarah Palin , Tom Cruise, Tyra Banks, Fox News and Mel Gibson. I have faith they can get the job done in extreme conditions. I wish them godspeed.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I am a very large facility manager myself and fully understand all of your salient points. Massive undertaking just to get power, all I keep thinking is no way. I walked through my plant today and tried to imagine fixing it with rad suits on and a massive debris field in the dark,working with previously submerged switch gear, salt water to boot, motors,pump seals, god awful.

You're just big boned.

Having done hazmat work for years in just regular level B and C gear (chem only), it is very hard to do all but the most basic tasks. The rad suits only offer some protection, none vs gamma even if there is lower levels of rad, they will only have minutes or seconds to do things, then get out, change crews, decon, etc etc etc

disastah

[Mt.Zoniac]

<br />Mt. Zoniac - if you read carefully, you will see that I do not trust TEPCO or the Japanese Gov't. It just so happens that they control what information is available.  I do happen to believe what the NRC is saying (though filtered for political reasons).  I suspect that this is very close to a Chernobyl situation.  The best thing that can happen is that an offshore wind continues until some sort of control is established and the leaking stops. I lived through TMI and Chernobyl and have read and been trained on all that happened there.   I also happen to know that the US is not going to be significantly impacted by radioactive fallout from this.  Will we detect it - yes.  Probably already are.  Will it create health effects?  Likely none that can be measured based on the Science that is well established regarding radiation exposure.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

G D:..............I'm not discounting what you said, just challenging your trust. I'd trust the Japanese gov a lot more than TEPCO, (and that's where the J-gov was at first getting most of it's info). I don't think we're detecting dangerous levels in the U.S. right now either. The question is whether or not Japan goes Chernobyl in some form, in the amounts of radiation the various reactors will throw out at a later date. We know the cement casing won't do a thing to eliminate radiation, and they are not even at that point of action yet. They are still working on Holy Mary temp fixes for cooling. So again, in the longer term - weeks/months - we still don't know what we don't know.