It was a Cold and Snowy Winter For Many

[FoothillsNC]

Who knew a few months ago that this would be the case, especially in the Southeast. All the numbers still aren't officially out, or I haven't found them, but overall for Alabama, Georgia part of Tennessee and the Carolinas, snow was above normal, in some cases as much as 300% or more, esp. toward the southern end where the climo average is 2" or so. All of us were cold, and even though snow was above normal in many spots, the actual precip pattern was a dry one for many, with a relative max centered over Georgia to Tennessee, but for Mississippi, Alabama and North Carolina it was the third driest Winter on record.

In my notes from my Winter Outlook issued Halloween, this statement stood out...."Overall, there's a good mix of below and above normal snow at GSP with all ENSO states but the least snowy is usually a strong La Nina, with only 1 case producing above normal snow."

Turns out, this year's 8.8" at GSP proved to be very unusual for a strong La Nina. The strong block and neg. NAO for December and January was the culprit. February turned out around average in temps, and the snow was limited mostly to 2 big systems.

Feel free to add your station to the totals for the season. This makes 3 above normal seasons in a row for this area, one each representing a strong Nino, Nina,and a neutral ENSO event.

[griteater]

It was an exhausting Dec/Jan of model watching (a good thing). For the areas that got hit, I think the Jan 10 storm will become more memorable / more appreciated over time. The last time we've had that type of massive cold air mass in place with precip moving in (surface wet bulbs in the low-mid 20's here when the snow started) was Jan '88.

[rwiwx]

No complaints here. For the season in Wilson it was way above average, with the golden goose being the day after Christmas storm. Overall for the season we had roughly 15.75". Some dissapointments later with snow further east along the coast, but hey they deserve some too. Ready for Spring!

Feb 10 0.5

Dec 26 13"

Dec 16 0.25

Dec 5 2.0"

[Gastonwxman]

Wholeheartedly agree about this Robert. The winter has been nothing short of amazing during the December and January months. Plenty of threats were watched each holding something unique, such as the true "punch" of our 12/4 clipper system or the miracle of our White Christmas Storm that occurred after going for so long without a true snow event on the 25th. Honesty, after glancing over all the events across the Southeast, I have no regrets with this past winter season, though I would have liked to see one last hurrah before we entered Spring so early.

To add on, what made this winter even more interesting was the outcome of it all. I believe that the majority of the forecasts made were based on typical Nina conditions and were smacked down thanks to our powerful blocking that was going on, not to mention that a somewhat-living southern stream was in order which promised plenty of storm chances while remaining cold for the most part. Certainly we can add this into the books as one of the most unusual winters we have experienced. It all goes to show how dominant a -NAO/-AO can be when strong enough to do so. Hopefully we can keep this kind of pattern going for the next few winters as it has been a long while since I've last seen so many opportunities for wintry shenanigans, which thankfully they did not all (or mostly) yielded cold rain or a drastic ice storm, which I am definitely thankful that didn't occur for most of us *shivers at the 2002 ice storm memory*.

One thing that I want to add is regarding how the MJO behaved all this time. Throughout the season, an Octant Shift occurred in regions 8, 1 and 2. This causes the convective base to be torn in an area east of the Indian Ocean and a trough ends up developing over it, and warm SSTs allowed an abundance of moisture and practically cooling the Indian Ocean Dipole.

While we eventually saw the NAO/AO shift positive, we were also seeing our PNA go positive, which helped somewhat but obviously not as much as the blocking itself. A variety of things (such as the focused stratospheric cooling, -IOD, etc.) led to the highly dynamic troughing that set up from Russia to the Eastern part of the US causing the look of our winter pattern. Of course, we continued to have blocking but was slowly losing it as we closed January and entered February. Eventually, the Nina had shifted westward with time but by having the overall international pattern becoming progressive and the increased speed in the NH jet, the wavelengths got to a point where the typicalness of ridging/troughing spacing progression does not occur and you end up with an oddball look of the Northern Hemisphere pattern. Such teleconnections combined with dual blocking just beats the tar out of the poor Nina for the majority of the time, especially since it has been weakening for some time now.

Regardless, it has been a very interesting winter and now it is time to push through spring, summer, and autumn before we are back once more to gluing our eyes at the modeling every so often. Until then, I will pretty much be interested in any severe or tropical wx threats that do arise throughout this year so as to stay as one of the active folks on here (winter wx being of course my number one to follow).

[phil882]

Considering the expectations... this was quite a surprising winter for many here in the Southeast. The blocking pattern in December into early January was just unreal... you just don't get 5880 meter ridges at 500mb over Greenland during winter... hell you don't get them during summer. I know this image was a forecast, but the verification wasn't too far off on the intensity of the block. The blocking that started in December really was the trigger for the rest of the winter. La Nina couldn't fight such a powerful signal... especially after the block reloaded and then retrograded all the way across Canada. It really wasn't until late January did the pattern switch for good, and by then, the damage had been done.

[nchighcountrywx]

Agreed we were all pleasantly surprised with how winter took hold in November and was generally solid up until January 25. Even though small, there were more snow events (although small) than has been seen in a long time outside of the mountains in parts of the western and northern piedmont in late November into mid December prior to the Christmas snow.

Personally, I enjoy winter taking a foothold in early December and would give up a cold February for a cold December any year.

[wx4life]

I thought this winter was great.It was nice to be all excited early in the season instead of later.I honestly did not expect to have ANY snow at all this past winter,so I took what I recieved and ran with it.can't wait until next Winter

[DixieBlizzard]

It was an outstanding winter here in N GA, the best I can remember since moving here in 1997. It kind of surprised me after the small, early February event that winter came to an abrupt end in the south. I was getting spoiled I guess but from our first white Christmas to the great storm in January, I just hope we can string a few of these type of winters together for at least a little while longer.

[DaculaWeather]

Outstanding here too. 9.25" is WELL above our average. I don't think you could script anything as good as the Jan 9 storm was (unless it's a triple phase Storm of the Century!), I know we haven't been out of school like we were then (5 days) since the early 80's.

[tnweathernut]

Meh, nickled and dimed here at TRI, but ended above average in the snowfall department. Very mixed feelings here as with all that blocking I fully expected to get hammered with a pure Miller A. Been MANY MANY years here at TRI since that has happened. The last 6+ inch snowfall here might have been back in 1998. (and that was from a cutoff) I'd check, but I am too lazy with winter on the outs.

Looking forward to blocking next winter and a +PNA at the same time (courtesy of a weak LaNina)

[Lookout]

Average snowfall per year here is something like 3 inches (per ffc, athens is 2.9 through today), total around 17 inches

Hell a legit white christmas is enough to make this winter memorable by itself. But we not only had that but we had another 2 to 3 inch snow. But of course that's not all either..we had the biggest snowfall in decades here. I think it's something to be said that Athens broke their all time 24 hour snow record with 8.9 inches with the jan storm. Not only that but according to all the local stations, many had 3 to even 4 inch per hour snowfall rates with the first band that went through, some with thundersnow. Indeed, within an hour there was a couple of inches on the ground here with near blizzard like conditions for a little while as there was strong winds with that band. And to end up with a light coating of freezing rain which kept the snow on the ground for a solid week, that storm won't be beat for a long time. It's right up there with the blizzard of 93 as my favorite of all time. In fact, it probably is now my favorite because I was able to track it from the start which was impossible with the 93 storm. Not to mention being on here which makes it so much funner.

It might 30 years before I see another winter like this one in terms of snowfall total and god knows how long in terms of having a storm like that AND a white christmas.

To think all of this happened in a strong la nina is absolutely mind boggling. I certainly remember all the depressing winter forecasts for this year. But you know something told me it wouldn't be quite as bad as advertised but I sure as hell didn't expect one like this.

This winter really tells me that the state of seasonal forecasting leaves much to be desired and it's going to be a long time before anyone can legitimately predict weather months in advance. Even in the face of an overwhelming signal like the la nina, which should have made it easier, it turned out much different than many thought it would.

I've always been of the belief that seasonal forecasting is nothing more than a crap shoot and if someone is right, or wrong, it is simply by chance and not because they have it even close to figured out. I don't know really if anyone ever really can because the atmosphere is so chaotic that it's possibly impossible to predict that far out. A group of t-storms can intensify a low more than predicted which in turn can change the entire pattern for up to a couple of weeks which also in turns has numerous effects down the road over half the hemisphere. There is simply no way anyone can see stuff like months in advance.

I don't mean any disrespect to those who try, god knows some put a hell of a lot of effort into trying. And I'm sure we are closer than we used to be, but this winter proves beyond much doubt to me that no one really has it figured out.

[BullCityWx]

This winter, while it could've been considered average in a favorable setup here, was phenomenal given what we had to work with. It was almost a 1 in 100 kinda shot.

[EmersonGA]

I ended up with my much desired double digits. If I add up the little dustings and sleet I come up with around 10.25" for the year. I think my average is a little under 3" so that's over 300% average. I'm also completely happy with the warmup in February. I feel like I got a month head start on all of my outdoor projects. I feel like I'll be done with outdoor work by the time the heat sets in. All I'll have to do is cut grass and pick vegetables.

[packbacker]

For RDU we had the Xmas day storm (7") and then we got shut out for the mid-Jan storm. Considering we were avg last year too it feels like a let down when comparing to everyone else. Overall it is tough to complain when you get a 6"+ storm. I was really happy we warmed up in Feb!

[NEGa]

It was an awesome winter! Back to back double digit snowfall winters. I say let's go three for three next year lol. And the snows this year weren't the piddly flakes, but the nice large ones. What's even more amazing around the number of days with snow on the ground. The last two years have yielded more than the last 10 it seems

[kanc2001]

last winter was better on the SC coast.

[FoothillsNC]

[NavarreDon]

I will remember this as the "light switch" winter.....it just abruptly shut off. That being said it was awesome for snow. The 2nd winter in a row. I never thought I would see the day when I could say I have had 83.25" of snow in 2 years! especially after the prolonged snow drought the Asheville area has been in(see my signature). I know Robert has made references to the old days & I hope they are back!

[superjames1992]

9.5" here. A good winter, but not great. The cold was impressive, but the screwjobs were numerous. Plus, after getting 19.25" in 2009-2010, I am spoiled. Overall, I give this winter a B for slightly better than average snowfall and the impressive cold over the first three-fourths of winter before the warmup in mid-February.

[eyewall]

After last winter's screw jobs we nearly doubled those totals this year with almost a foot of snow. We cashed in both the christmas and january events. I was let down by how early spring kicked in.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk

[griteater]

Regarding the 1/8 convective snow showers / squalls in Eyewall's sig - while it only amounted to a light dusting, it was truly a rare event around here. This was a true snow squall where the snow was coming down at a good clip for 15 minutes or so, and at the end of it, it was dark clouds on one side of the sky, and blue skies on the other. At one point, there were flakes flying in the air with literally 3/4 of the sky blue. Seeing something like that in the mtns is not a big deal, but extremely rare here.

[superjames1992]

Regarding the 1/8 convective snow showers / squalls in Eyewall's sig - while it only amounted to a light dusting, it was truly a rare event around here. This was a true snow squall where the snow was coming down at a good clip for 15 minutes or so, and at the end of it, it was dark clouds on one side of the sky, and blue skies on the other. At one point, there were flakes flying in the air with literally 3/4 of the sky blue. Seeing something like that in the mtns is not a big deal, but extremely rare here.

Yeah, that was kind of cool. Having lived in West Virginia for four years, I am very acclimated to those types of snow squalls, but it was still neat to see here.

[Gastonwxman]

Regarding the 1/8 convective snow showers / squalls in Eyewall's sig - while it only amounted to a light dusting, it was truly a rare event around here. This was a true snow squall where the snow was coming down at a good clip for 15 minutes or so, and at the end of it, it was dark clouds on one side of the sky, and blue skies on the other. At one point, there were flakes flying in the air with literally 3/4 of the sky blue. Seeing something like that in the mtns is not a big deal, but extremely rare here.

I believe there was another time that occurred here in my neck of the woods (2007 or 2008). Anyway, the early part of the day was rather cloudy and not much was expected to come through here that morning when all the sudden (by around 11am or so), you could see several snowflakes begin to make their way down. Around the same time, the sun was popping out and despite the clouds breaking up, snow was still falling and made quite a beautiful sight if I do say so myself. It only lasted for about 20-25 minutes though but it was enough to cover the tops of objects such as cars and trash cans. I went to take a quick look on radar and there was indeed a line of precipitation, though small, pushing through the Piedmont. Strange indeed but nice.

[Lee]

Meh, nickled and dimed here at TRI, but ended above average in the snowfall department. Very mixed feelings here as with all that blocking I fully expected to get hammered with a pure Miller A. Been MANY MANY years here at TRI since that has happened. The last 6+ inch snowfall here might have been back in 1998. (and that was from a cutoff) I'd check, but I am too lazy with winter on the outs.

Looking forward to blocking next winter and a +PNA at the same time (courtesy of a weak LaNina)

I'm a little late to the party with this topic but, alas, here i am. I feel for U guys over there. If a snow map is made up, i'm sure a little area right over TRI will stand out for this winter as having received the least in respect to normal( They wound up with just under 17" last I heard). We didn't do sectacular here but decent,at least. Wound up with seasonal of 24.1 inches ;Just over 7" above average. No biggies,mainly 2-5 inch jobs.

As far as the 6 inch or betters, yeah, we have been shafted along with U guys as well, although the Jan. 30 of last winter one exceeded that here with 8". Of course, elevated areas received many 6 plus ones here as well as there.