March 2011 might be snowless for NYC

[A-L-E-X]

GFS is more north and much wetter then 18z.

.50"-.75".

Coast is fighting boundary temps though.

Nice to see it more amped up.

Yeah, lets just get the heavier precip in here first. The heavier rates can bring down colder air and make it snow -- which is what usually happens in early spring borderline set ups.

[A-L-E-X]

That's a smart call, it's far out and we're talking about a late season snowstorm. They have changed my forecast from all rain to a mix, however:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Mixture usually means when it falls hard it snows, otherwise its rain or a mix.

[A-L-E-X]

It doesn't really matter with the temps we're gonna have wednesday into thursday. We're talking late March here. Not early March. In late March you need a way below normal airmass in place to get accumulating snow in the NYC area. What we have for this potential system simply won't cut it. Even if temps fall to the mid 30s, there's no way it would accumulate on the warm ground. Lee Goldberg put it best tonight ... he said rain with possibly some wet snow mixed in. If you see a little wet snow, be happy. Anyone that thinks we're getting accumulating snow with very borderline temps in late March is really reaching here.

It can definitely snow and stick with temps in the mid 30s if it falls hard enough -- see April 1996, April 2003. Im not so sure about the city but both were heavy snowfalls here.

[nzucker]

It doesn't really matter with the temps we're gonna have wednesday into thursday. We're talking late March here. Not early March. In late March you need a way below normal airmass in place to get accumulating snow in the NYC area. What we have for this potential system simply won't cut it. Even if temps fall to the mid 30s, there's no way it would accumulate on the warm ground. Lee Goldberg put it best tonight ... he said rain with possibly some wet snow mixed in. If you see a little wet snow, be happy. Anyone that thinks we're getting accumulating snow with very borderline temps in late March is really reaching here.

0z GFS is plenty cold for accumulating snow where I live. 850s are like -4C and surface temperatures are 32F. What more do you want?

[tornadojay]

<br />0z GFS is plenty cold for accumulating snow where I live. 850s are like -4C and surface temperatures are 32F. What more do you want? <img src="http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/Snowman.gif" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

Yep... Agree for our area... Verbatim.. I think it could accumulate. Also... Heavy QPF looks to come in the middle of the night

[NEG NAO]

It doesn't really matter with the temps we're gonna have wednesday into thursday. We're talking late March here. Not early March. In late March you need a way below normal airmass in place to get accumulating snow in the NYC area. What we have for this potential system simply won't cut it. Even if temps fall to the mid 30s, there's no way it would accumulate on the warm ground. Lee Goldberg put it best tonight ... he said rain with possibly some wet snow mixed in. If you see a little wet snow, be happy. Anyone that thinks we're getting accumulating snow with very borderline temps in late March is really reaching here.

I disagree about the wednesday night thursday morning event. Much of the heavier precip is going to fall at night and temps will be in the lower 30's - march 23 at night low 30's is enough for accumulating snow here. Just look at what hapened April 7 , 2003 daytime 15 days after March 23 temps low 30's - 7 - 9 inches parts of central NJ....

[Sundog]

People, stop looking at the calendar date. Even if it was July, if we had 40s and 50s on the days prior and low 30s with moderate to heavy precip that night, it would accumulate.

[Weathergun]

For Wed. night and Thursday, I think areas of N&W of NYC could see a few inches of snow if the isentropic lift is good enough for higher snowfall rates. But the low-level SE flow that you see on the GFS below will kill any chance for accumulations over NYC and LI: You see the water temps are middle to upper 40's just south of NYC/LI now. Also the 850mb low is going over Western NY State. So if this is correct, expect the warm air intrusion to be underdone. I strongly suspect for coast this winds up being mostly rain under this setup:

[gravitylover]

Uggh I just took the snow tires off last week. Ah well, that's usually how I guarantee at least one more wintry storm. Guess they should go back on tomorrow because my summer tires suck at temps below 40* and I have to make it to work...

[uncle W]

snowfalls after March 22nd in NYC are scarce...I count 15 storms 3" or more since 1869...

amount...date...min temp...

10.2" 4/3/1915.......29

10.0" 4/13/1875.....33

9.6" 4/6/1982.........21

8.5" 4/1/1924.........27

6.5" 4/9/1917.........28

6.5" 4/5/1944.........29

6.4" 4/6/1938.........28

5.0" 4/9/1907.........36

4.2" 4/8/1956.........33

4.1" 3/29/1996........31

4.0" 4/7/2003.........30

4.0" 3/29/1970.......22

3.3" 3/29/1984.......34

3.2" 3/29/1974.......27

3.1" 3/31/1890.......29

[bluewave]

After our last +20 degree temperature departure day on February 18th, we picked up snow not too long after.

2/18 67 46 57 22

3/18 77 51 64 21

[A-L-E-X]

snowfalls after March 22nd in NYC are scarce...I count 15 storms 3" or more since 1869...

amount...date...min temp...

10.2" 4/3/1915.......29

10.0" 4/13/1875.....33

9.6" 4/6/1982.........21

8.5" 4/1/1924.........27

6.5" 4/9/1917.........28

6.5" 4/5/1944.........29

6.4" 4/6/1938.........28

5.0" 4/9/1907.........36

4.2" 4/8/1956.........33

4.1" 3/29/1996........31

4.0" 4/7/2003.........30

4.0" 3/29/1970.......22

3.3" 3/29/1984.......34

3.2" 3/29/1974.......27

3.1" 3/31/1890.......29

Some of that is UHI -- April 9-10, 1996 was quite good here -- so we had two very late season events that year -- which, if the pattern holds, we could repeat this time around

[jconsor]

Agree with Alex about the heat island influence. The list of 3"+ snow storms after Mar 22 for eastern Long Island sites is quite different. Bolded dates do not appear on the Central Park list.

Note that I counted 3/22-23/1992 because snow fell for a few hours on after midnight on Mar 23, 1992 over eastern Long Island, even though most of the accumulating snow was on Mar 22.

Patchogue (1938-1997):

4/1/1997 4"

4/9-10/1996 3"

4/7-8/1996 12"

3/22-23/1992 4"

4/7/1990 3"

3/28-29/1984 6"

4/6/1982 10.5"

3/29/1974 3"

3/29/1970 5.1"

3/26-27/1959 3"

4/4/1944 4.9"

4/8-9/1942 4.2"

3/30/1942 3.6"

4/6/1938 4.8"

Bridgehampton (1930-present):

3/23-24/2005 3.5"

4/7/2003 8"

4/9-10/1996 8"

3/22-23/1992 4"

4/7/1990 3"

4/6/1982 6.5"

3/29/1974 3"

3/29/1970 4.5"

4/14/1950 3.1"

4/9-10/1942 3"

4/6/1938 5.1"

snowfalls after March 22nd in NYC are scarce...I count 15 storms 3" or more since 1869...

amount...date...min temp...

10.2" 4/3/1915.......29

10.0" 4/13/1875.....33

9.6" 4/6/1982.........21

8.5" 4/1/1924.........27

6.5" 4/9/1917.........28

6.5" 4/5/1944.........29

6.4" 4/6/1938.........28

5.0" 4/9/1907.........36

4.2" 4/8/1956.........33

4.1" 3/29/1996........31

4.0" 4/7/2003.........30

4.0" 3/29/1970.......22

3.3" 3/29/1984.......34

3.2" 3/29/1974.......27

3.1" 3/31/1890.......29

[uncle W]

Agree with Alex about the heat island influence. The list of 3"+ snow storms after Mar 22 for eastern Long Island sites is quite different. Bolded dates do not appear on the Central Park list.

Note that I counted 3/22-23/1992 because snow fell for a few hours on after midnight on Mar 23, 1992 over eastern Long Island, even though most of the accumulating snow was on Mar 22.

Patchogue (1938-1997):

4/1/1997 4"

4/9-10/1996 3"

4/7-8/1996 12"

3/22-23/1992 4"

4/7/1990 3"

3/28-29/1984 6"

4/6/1982 10.5"

3/29/1974 3"

3/29/1970 5.1"

3/26-27/1959 3"

4/4/1944 4.9"

4/8-9/1942 4.2"

3/30/1942 3.6"

4/6/1938 4.8"

Bridgehampton (1930-present):

3/23-24/2005 3.5"

4/7/2003 8"

4/9-10/1996 8"

3/22-23/1992 4"

4/7/1990 3"

4/6/1982 6.5"

3/29/1974 3"

3/29/1970 4.5"

4/14/1950 3.1"

4/9-10/1942 3"

4/6/1938 5.1"

in 1992 NYC got two storms 3" or more the last week of winter...I remember the 1959 event...It was sleet and snow...About an inch accumulated after dark and a little was left on the ground Easter Morning...

[nzucker]

GFS looks to be brewing up more trouble at Day 7 with another overrunning scenario under a very cold polar vortex that's gotten stuck over Eastern Canada:

The Hudson Bay block is a classic pattern for late-season events, and we'd start the Day 7 event with much colder 850s, around -10C, than the Day 4 event that we are discussing for Wed/Thurs.