CAT5ANDREW Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I dont remember 2 consecutive snowless March's here but we are 16 days from having it happen.ANybody have the stats for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 What makes it more likely is how terrible the pattern is. This was my fear in Februrary when it was clear the pattern was going to fall right off the table and keep free falling. It's hard to recover and your chances go way down at this point. This winter got off to such an unreal start, too. Still historical in very aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I dont remember 2 consecutive snowless March's here but we are 16 days from having it happen.ANybody have the stats for this? Its happened quite often from a 0 or a trace to less then an inch - 2 consecutive years BUT don't give up hope - there is always that snowstorm that is inbetween warm days and LaNina's are famous for them and Bastardi and D'Aleo are still suggesting this could happen late march to mid april.... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I dont remember 2 consecutive snowless March's here but we are 16 days from having it happen.ANybody have the stats for this? 1945 and 1946...this would be the fourth time in ten years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 March 1945 and March 1946 were the only consecutive Marches with no measurable snowfall in NYC. Barring a surprise late this month, March 2010 and 2011 will only be the second snowless consecutive Marches since record-keeping began in NYC. Pretty amazing considering how much snowfall fell in both winters. Another amazing statistic: if it weren't for the March 1-2, 2009 storm, or if the storm had happened just a couple days earlier, or if Feburary were 30 or 31 days long like all of the other months, then this month would be the fourth consecutive March with no measurable snowfall in NYC, since I'm pretty sure NYC didn't see any more snow in March 2009 after the storm on the 1st-2nd, and March 2008 only had a trace. Pretty incredible how awful our Marches have been recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 1945 and 1946 were la nina years...They are still the number one and two warmest March on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 NYC hasn't even recorded a trace so far this month....if they end the month with a goose egg, that would be the first one since 1902-1903. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I dont remember 2 consecutive snowless March's here but we are 16 days from having it happen.ANybody have the stats for this? I had 1.5" or so last March here in Westchester, so not snowless. I've had two Ts this month. What makes it more likely is how terrible the pattern is. This was my fear in Februrary when it was clear the pattern was going to fall right off the table and keep free falling. It's hard to recover and your chances go way down at this point. This winter got off to such an unreal start, too. Still historical in very aspect. Classic Jekyll/Hyde winter like 89-90 and 75-76 (another strong Niña)...both started off cold and then became extremely mild in the second half. February and March haven't been nearly that warm though, definitely a different type of torching those years. We're just slightly above normal in temperatures this year for Feb/Mar, and some of us who did well in 2/21 saw normal snowfall in February, not a shut-out by any means up here. NYC hasn't even recorded a trace so far this month....if they end the month with a goose egg, that would be the first one since 1902-1903. That seems suspect. Didn't everyone have snow showers behind the cutter/SW flow event in early March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I had 1.5" or so last March here in Westchester, so not snowless. I've had two Ts this month. Classic Jekyll/Hyde winter like 89-90 and 75-76 (another strong Niña)...both started off cold and then became extremely mild in the second half. February and March haven't been nearly that warm though, definitely a different type of torching those years. We're just slightly above normal in temperatures this year for Feb/Mar, and some of us who did well in 2/21 saw normal snowfall in February, not a shut-out by any means up here. That seems suspect. Didn't everyone have snow showers behind the cutter/SW flow event in early March? I know we had a trace here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I know we had a trace here. I had a light dusting on cartops in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 That seems suspect. Didn't everyone have snow showers behind the cutter/SW flow event in early March? I had a period of light snow for about 30 minutes in NE Queens. I wonder if LGA recorded that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 That seems suspect. Didn't everyone have snow showers behind the cutter/SW flow event in early March? Not here. Interesting how Winter abruptly ended for the 2nd year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Not here. Interesting how Winter abruptly ended for the 2nd year in a row. 3 out of 4 March with no snow.... and the one that kept it from being four in a row only had snow March 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 ...since I'm pretty sure NYC didn't see any more snow in March 2009 after the storm on the 1st-2nd, and March 2008 only had a trace. Are you sure about this? Dobbs Ferry had 1" recorded on 3/20/09. I was away, but might have Central Park gotten an accumulation too? (Also, Central Park has the habit of writing off small events with a "T" when they should be considered accumulating, so I don't consider their record on this matter very legitimate)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Are you sure about this? Dobbs Ferry had 1" recorded on 3/20/09. I was away, but might have Central Park gotten an accumulation too? (Also, Central Park has the habit of writing off small events with a "T" when they should be considered accumulating, so I don't consider their record on this matter very legitimate)... I dont know about NYC but there was nothing here outside of a ridiculous snowshower we had with temps in the upper 40s.... I will remember the videos from Allentown and Atlantic City forever-- it was 48 to 51 degrees with a heavy daytime snowshower-- no accumulation of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 I think that global warming may increase the chance for more snow less Marches since the cold season tend to shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I think that global warming may increase the chance for more snow less Marches since the cold season tend to shorten. But then why has December been so snowy compared to normal, especially the first half? Average temperatures in March aren't much different from the first half of December...mid/upper 40s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 -NAO possibly due to the unfrozen waters of the Arctic, which may be linked to global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 -NAO possibly due to the unfrozen waters of the Arctic, which may be linked to global warming. It might not be my place, but I have read the earth cooled significantly in the past five months. Maybe climate change is the better phrase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Are you sure about this? Dobbs Ferry had 1" recorded on 3/20/09. I was away, but might have Central Park gotten an accumulation too? (Also, Central Park has the habit of writing off small events with a "T" when they should be considered accumulating, so I don't consider their record on this matter very legitimate)... Well Central Park's total snowfall in March 2009 was 8.3 inches. I looked up records for the March 1-2 storm and it appears Central Park got 8.0 inches, so I guess they must've gotten another 0.3 inches in the rest of the month. Still very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I dont know about NYC but there was nothing here outside of a ridiculous snowshower we had with temps in the upper 40s.... I will remember the videos from Allentown and Atlantic City forever-- it was 48 to 51 degrees with a heavy daytime snowshower-- no accumulation of course. Yeah I'm not aware of any snow in this area in March 2008 except for that ridiculous 50 degree snowshower on the first of the month (which didn't accumulate obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Yeah I'm not aware of any snow in this area in March 2008 except for that ridiculous 50 degree snowshower on the first of the month (which didn't accumulate obviously). Yeah I was in Poughkeepsie that month and just recorded a T, very poor and disappointing after the good snowstorm in Feb 08 that dumped 10" around POU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Yeah I was in Poughkeepsie that month and just recorded a T, very poor and disappointing after the good snowstorm in Feb 08 that dumped 10" around POU. Yes, that was February 22, 2008. I got 6.5 inches (which seems like nothing now lol), but at the time I will never forget how much snow it seemed like we got because of how abysmal the snowfall had been that winter and in the infamous "sleet winter" of 06-07. I hadn't seen an actual snowfall greater than 2.5 inches since the February 2006 blizzard. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Yes, that was February 22, 2008. I got 6.5 inches (which seems like nothing now lol), but at the time I will never forget how much snow it seemed like we got because of how abysmal the snowfall had been that winter and in the infamous "sleet winter" of 06-07. I hadn't seen an actual snowfall greater than 2.5 inches since the February 2006 blizzard. Pathetic. Yeah Dobbs Ferry did horribly in 06-07 and 07-08, probably 15" and 20" respectively for those winters. I was away at college up north so didn't really notice anyway....I had 20" in the 2/12/06 blizzard in Dobbs, but it wasn't until 12/19/08 that my town got another 8" snowfall. Just to put that in perspective, Dobbs Ferry has had 9 events 8"+ since the beginning of Winter 08-09, with 5 storms over 12" in the last two winters. How the rich get richer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Yeah Dobbs Ferry did horribly in 06-07 and 07-08, probably 15" and 20" respectively for those winters. I was away at college up north so didn't really notice anyway....I had 20" in the 2/12/06 blizzard in Dobbs, but it wasn't until 12/19/08 that my town got another 8" snowfall. Just to put that in perspective, Dobbs Ferry has had 9 events 8"+ since the beginning of Winter 08-09, with 5 storms over 12" in the last two winters. How the rich get richer Yep, just about the same in Monmouth County. 8 events of 8"+ since 2008-09, and 6 storms over 12" in the last two winters! Combined two winter total of 127.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Yes, that was February 22, 2008. I got 6.5 inches (which seems like nothing now lol), but at the time I will never forget how much snow it seemed like we got because of how abysmal the snowfall had been that winter and in the infamous "sleet winter" of 06-07. I hadn't seen an actual snowfall greater than 2.5 inches since the February 2006 blizzard. Pathetic. LOL that was one SW flow event that actually overperformed when it was supposed to change to rain. That was the biggest snowstorm here between Feb 2006 and March 2009. Sad huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 LOL that was one SW flow event that actually overperformed when it was supposed to change to rain. That was the biggest snowstorm here between Feb 2006 and March 2009. Sad huh? Really sad. And for me it was the biggest snowstorm between February 2006 and December 2009 since the March 2009 storm was a bust here (only got 5''). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 Yeah Dobbs Ferry did horribly in 06-07 and 07-08, probably 15" and 20" respectively for those winters. I was away at college up north so didn't really notice anyway....I had 20" in the 2/12/06 blizzard in Dobbs, but it wasn't until 12/19/08 that my town got another 8" snowfall. Just to put that in perspective, Dobbs Ferry has had 9 events 8"+ since the beginning of Winter 08-09, with 5 storms over 12" in the last two winters. How the rich get richer I only got about 12.5 inches from 06-07 (with 8 inches of that being sleet lol) and about 17 inches from 07-08. Both winters were pretty abysmal. I've had six 8+'' events over the last two winters, with only two of those being 12+''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I would say this 3/24 system is a legit chance for accumulating snow in NYC. The only concern is that if the GFS is overdoing how fast the rex block drops in from west Canada, then the storm will end up further north. A block coming in from this position isn't quite the same as our NAO blocks in keeping the systems more suppressed. One timing issue and this ends up another inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 I only got about 12.5 inches from 06-07 (with 8 inches of that being sleet lol) and about 17 inches from 07-08. Both winters were pretty abysmal. I've had six 8+'' events over the last two winters, with only two of those being 12+''. 06-07 was ridiculously mild until late January; we were having rain with temperatures in the 50s in Vermont that winter. Horrid +NAO/+AO/+EPO pattern that torched the CONUS in December 2006, as well as the added global warmth from a moderate El Niño. It was a great winter from that point forward in Northern New England, however. Had 25" on Valentine's Day, 12" on St. Patty's Day, 5" on Tax Day in Middlebury, VT; Burlington also recorded a record low of -18F in early March. It's too bad the coastal plain got sleet/rain taint in all these events. It was definitely a tale of two winters, though, in that everyone was like +8 for the first half of winter, and then Central Park ended February around -6F departure, one of the coldest Februaries we've seen in ages. It sounds as if you've been screwed on basically every set-up despite the fact that you average more snow than a good number of people in this forum...you average around 30"/season which is 3-4" more than Central Park, yet you've seen much less than KNYC which had 51" last winter and looks to end around 60" this season. Your latitude also cost you in 08-09, as you probably didn't fare as well as Westchester in the 12/19, 12/21, and 1/28 SW flow events. I had 8", 2.5", and 5.5" in Dobbs Ferry from those events, but some of the measurements were taken by my parents in January since I was still away at school. You also might have been stuck in the dryslot on 3/2 which dealt 10" here and 12-16" on Long Island. That was one of the few coastals we saw during that stretch of winters, and a good one for most of the metro. I agree with HM that we might see something in late March as that -EPO block starts to move across Canada towards Hudson Bay. The pattern certainly looks to turn chillier after this weekend's blowtorch with a more positive PNA and the potential for a good Hudson Bay block which is critical in the late season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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