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How will you remember this winter 2010/2011?


earthlight

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Whats up dudes. First of all, I haven't been around the past few weeks at all for a few reasons...one because the weather is boring as hell, two because I have had some health problems..and three because it's warm and I play baseball and like to be outside with girls.

Anyway..For me it's simple...I will always remember this winter for the days preceding the Dec 26 blizzard. I have literally never experienced anything like that..we are a rare group, those of us who understand the emotional investment into snowstorm modeling. But this one reigns supreme for me and it's not even close.

I remember the afternoon of Dec 25 a friend of mine called me at 12:45pm, I was sound asleep..pissed off from the previous night's model runs. But as as soon as I saw the phone ringing three times, I knew what it was. The previous night I had stayed up until 4:30am on this forum talking with baroclinic_instability about how every single model was taking the shortwave over the plains and trending it west by 25-50 miles each run. It wasn't producing surface effects yet, but it was like lighting a match in a room filled with kerosene. Eventually, you'll hit the tipping point and everything will explode. If these trends continued we could pull off an upset.

So when I checked my voicemails, all I heard was "OMG!!!!!". I was immediately wired, called back. He picked up and it was mass hysteria, I saw the GFS, etc etc. And then came the initialization errors...the rest of the day was a blur. But that night was, obviously, Christmas Eve, so I remember being out to dinner with the family. I went into the bathroom and checked the SREFs, screamed YEAH BABY in the bathroom, got a few weird looks, and the rest of the night just checked the phone constantly. Between the NAM and the GFS coming west, it was one of the most adrenaline filled dinners of all time.

But the real magic occurred past 12am that night, when the Euro started running and out to 12 hours it became clear what was going on. We were actually going to pull this off. It was so much more amplified for a 12 hour forecast that I literally couldn't believe what I was seeing. I remember Dxsnow53 posted saying "I'm almost crying". As history has it, it showed a tremendous mega blizzard, I posted the miracle on ice video, and we were all buried with enough snow over the next four weeks to make us happy forever. I included the post below. What's your story?

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That storm coming back after being left for dead was Mike Weaver knocking out John Tate in the 15th round on MARCH 31 1980.The storm itself was Ali-Frazier on March 8 1970 at MSG,exceeding all expectations of greatness.THe Next month was like the Yankees from 1996-2000.Since FEB 1st,it has been like the last 4 AFC Championship games the NY Jets have been in.Overall,this past winter was like Mike Tysons career.AN Explosive beginning and midway through a chance for all time greatness...only to fall short and wonder what could have been.

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The Euro and the Boxing Day storm.

Experiencing true blizzard conditions for hours and hours on end. Walking on the beach at 3am at the height of the storm and the waves were relatively small due to the straight offshore wind. Climbing over 6 foot drifts between the high rise buildings in Long Beach and having to walk backwards into the wind to avoid getting blasted in the face. That storm snow wise was the storm of storms around here. Everything else pails in comparison.

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Whats up dudes. First of all, I haven't been around the past few weeks at all for a few reasons...one because the weather is boring as hell, two because I have had some health problems..and three because it's warm and I play baseball and like to be outside with girls.

Anyway..For me it's simple...I will always remember this winter for the days preceding the Dec 26 blizzard. I have literally never experienced anything like that..we are a rare group, those of us who understand the emotional investment into snowstorm modeling. But this one reigns supreme for me and it's not even close.

I remember the afternoon of Dec 25 a friend of mine called me at 12:45pm, I was sound asleep..pissed off from the previous night's model runs. But as as soon as I saw the phone ringing three times, I knew what it was. The previous night I had stayed up until 4:30am on this forum talking with baroclinic_instability about how every single model was taking the shortwave over the plains and trending it west by 25-50 miles each run. It wasn't producing surface effects yet, but it was like lighting a match in a room filled with kerosene. Eventually, you'll hit the tipping point and everything will explode. If these trends continued we could pull off an upset.

So when I checked my voicemails, all I heard was "OMG!!!!!". I was immediately wired, called back. He picked up and it was mass hysteria, I saw the GFS, etc etc. And then came the initialization errors...the rest of the day was a blur. But that night was, obviously, Christmas Eve, so I remember being out to dinner with the family. I went into the bathroom and checked the SREFs, screamed YEAH BABY in the bathroom, got a few weird looks, and the rest of the night just checked the phone constantly. Between the NAM and the GFS coming west, it was one of the most adrenaline filled dinners of all time.

But the real magic occurred past 12am that night, when the Euro started running and out to 12 hours it became clear what was going on. We were actually going to pull this off. It was so much more amplified for a 12 hour forecast that I literally couldn't believe what I was seeing. I remember Dxsnow53 posted saying "I'm almost crying". As history has it, it showed a tremendous mega blizzard, I posted the miracle on ice video, and we were all buried with enough snow over the next four weeks to make us happy forever. I included the post below. What's your story?

http://www.americanw...post__p__176304

hotdog.gif

lmaosmiley.gif

...oh wait, Ive done the same thing thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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You could've titled (or subtitled) this thread "The best surprise Christmas present I've ever had."

hands down, Alex. I thought 2002 Christmas was a great gift, being that it happened on the afternoon, but Boxing Day takes the winning prize.

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best part was staying up late everynight waiting for the EURO to show another massive hit, and watching the rest of the bad boys suppress it for a week. And reading Baroclinics thoughts about how the trough had to tap the gulf to make it happen and it did and Earthlights ticking timebomb, fragile phase over the plains. People forget that HM called this storm over a week out too which is amazing.

There was one night, i believe the night before xmas eve where i was so sad and depressed and everyone in here said it wasnt going to happen. All of the models lost the storm, after the 00z euro and reading tombos 99 posts about how the heights are lower off the east coast i threw my laptop on the floor in a rage and went to sleep sooo angry and upset. :weenie:

and from there on out it was one of the best 72 hr spans of my life i have ever experienced.

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Boxing day blizzard

What a ride of emotions. I almost cried when all the models lost the storm. That quickly changed when the models brought it back. My friend called me at work on Christmas Eve to tell me the GFS shows a major hit. I was stunned. Then he called me back saying HPC said there were errors on the GFS . I really wanted to go home and look at the models from that point on lmfao.

That night was really special. I was dancing my ass off when all the models at 0z showed a huge hit. Best Christmas ever.:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

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this may be sacrilege.... but i think i actually enjoyed the january 26th storm more than the boxing day bash.

being outside experiencing 8" of snow in 2 hours is very hard to top.

locally, dec 26 was 20".... and jan 26 was 18" .............. i'm sure if i was in the 30" band the boxing day storm would have won in knock out.

haha.

hey, it's late. i'm allowed.

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12/26 to 1/27...Greatest winter period I ever lived through...

Yup indeed, between the constant snowcover from Dec 26 to Feb ~16-20 or so, and the best month of snowstorms I have ever seen, it will rank up there with 93/94 and 95/96 among the best winters I have been through. THe Dec blizzard and the late Jan storms were two of my favorite of all time and they occured within a month of each other.

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Have to go with the 30 or so days between 12/26 and 01/26.

Have experienced many snowstorms starting with the Lindsay Storm, but living in the NYC metro area means most storms

get washed away or melt within a week or so.

That month where we had almost a constant 12"+ snow cover (helped with additional snow of course) will be what I remember most from this winter. :snowman:

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This winter was the greatest since 96 for me. The fact that we got snow piling up on snow again and again like a mountain village at 8000 feet on the windward side made it one of the greatest ever. No winter can match that, not even 96.

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Frustrating in that it turned out to be one big tease. Great and hopeful start with the boxing day blizzard, follow-up snowfalls and a nice snowstorm on Jan. 26/27, and an extensive period of continuous snowcover. But no significant records were broken despite the potential to do so (by the end of Jan.we even had a reasonable shot at exceeding 80" for the winter). But my cynicism regarding our ability to do so was confirmed, in that consistent with the general climatology of this area, the second half of the winter was virtually wiped out after the snowstorm of Jan. 26/27, with a complete flip in the weather patterns thereafter (we haven't even had a trace of snowfall this month).

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I can't complain with 2 of the best storms in my lifetime a month apart. a tease would be 2001-02. Cold air that never came, storms that never materialized. Considering the expectations for this winter were that we'd get maybe 15-20" of snow in a very strong LaNina pattern, ending up with more than double that totally makes up for the fact that the 2nd half of winter was essentially non existent.

For me i'll never forget writing off the 26th storm that thursday when every model lost the storm and watching each model slowly but surely come back to the solution of a huge storm by Christmas eve and having blizzard warnings by Christmas afternoon. Something that seemed impossible just 24-36 hours earlier. Then having that incredible band of heavy snow sit on top of me for like 8 hours with crazy winds and true blizzard conditions just made for an amazing experience. Winter could have stopped right then and there and I still would have been happy. Even more amazingly however was not seeing grass in my backyard for about 50 days after that.

Frustrating in that it turned out to be one big tease. Great and hopeful start with the boxing day blizzard, follow-up snowfalls and a nice snowstorm on Jan. 26/27, and an extensive period of continuous snowcover. But no significant records were broken despite the potential to do so (by the end of Jan.we even had a reasonable shot at exceeding 80" for the winter). But my cynicism regarding our ability to do so was confirmed, in that consistent with the general climatology of this area, the second half of the winter was virtually wiped out after the snowstorm of Jan. 26/27, with a complete flip in the weather patterns thereafter (we haven't even had a trace of snowfall this month).

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Yeah, no doubt December 26-January 27th was the best period ever for myself.

About 2 feet on the ground level, with 30" in shade is just quite impressive.

This.

Solid snowpack for all January, 65mph winds in heavy snow during the 12/26 storm, .5" ice on 2/3.

And after all the miracles last year. 09-10/10-11 FTW Snowman.gif

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For me it was certainly the period from December 26 to February 2.

I will never forget the models leading up to the Boxing Day storm. After seeing them all lose the storm on December 23 and really giving up on it and feeling very depressed, watching them all come back to a huge storm on Christmas Eve gave me one of the biggest rushes I have ever experienced. It was unfortunate that the actual storm didn't work out for me as well as I had hoped since I was right on the western edge of the very heavy band and got much less than places just to my east, but what made that storm truly memorable for me was the huge turnaround on the models.

Once the 12/26 storm exited, I never would've dreamed that we would be getting so much additional snow in the next month. A solid 8 inch snowstorm on January 11-12 (which, while it didn't last long, had some very intense snow rates, actually heavier than anything I experienced from 12/26), followed by my favorite storm of the last two winters: 1/26-27. That one was much more widespread and hit both my house (16'') and where I was at, Rutgers, (14'') with some pretty insane snow rates and gusty winds. I will also never forget the thundersnow/sleet I saw with that one.

The February 2 ice storm was also quite memorable; in fact I think it was the worst ice storm that I can remember. Lots of tree damage on campus.

Of course what also made this winter very memorable was the incredible snowcover; I don't think I've ever experienced so many days with 12+'' of snow on the ground. Really amazing.

This winter also taught me how important a -NAO/blocking really is, since it gave us probably the best one-month period of winter weather we have ever experienced, even though it was during the worst ENSO state possible (strong Nina).

It's too bad that the second half of winter turned out to be a complete dud, but considering what we already got and the abysmal forecasts going into the winter were, you can't really complain much.

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This.

Solid snowpack for all January, 65mph winds in heavy snow during the 12/26 storm, .5" ice on 2/3.

And after all the miracles last year. 09-10/10-11 FTW Snowman.gif

Gotta love solar minimums.

12/26 was the best storm of my life, and the 1 month period late dec-late jan was also the snowiest of my life. I wasn't old enough to really enjoy 95-96, so the past couple winters have been remarkable.

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Coming from one who has clear memories of 1960-61, that's quite a mouthful.

this year is kind of similar to 60-61...After February 4th not much happened in the city...The 12/26 storm is one of the biggest I lived through...1/26 was another great storm...The piles of snow we had were huge...1960-61 had the early December storm that we missed out on but 36" of snow in January made up for it...We also got an 8-9" storm between the big storms...The only thing missing was the two weeks of extreme cold...If you factor in cold 1960-61 beats this year...

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Gotta love solar minimums.

12/26 was the best storm of my life, and the 1 month period late dec-late jan was also the snowiest of my life. I wasn't old enough to really enjoy 95-96, so the past couple winters have been remarkable.

Do you think Winter 11-12 will have the same general -NAO/-AO pattern due to the long solar minimum? Would the chances for blocking increase, in your opinion, if we were in a weak El Niño rather than a weak Niña or negative neutral state?

Between December 26th and February 2nd, 56" of snow fell here in Dobbs Ferry....that's more than I've ever seen in a six-week period, and the snowpack we built reached 25" after the snow on 2/2. It was one of the most beautiful snowpacks I've ever seen as it became coated in a glistening sheet of ice during the 2/2-3 storm...just unreal to have two feet of snow topped off with ice. 95-96 didn't have the persistent cold but did have a more prolonged duration of threats and a much more widespread blizzard. I'd say the 95-96 winter was slightly better here than 10-11 but it's a close call as I very much enjoyed the 6-7 weeks of the constant wintry atmosphere that prevailed this year in the region.

this year is kind of similar to 60-61...After February 4th not much happened in the city...The 12/26 storm is one of the biggest I lived through...1/26 was another great storm...The piles of snow we had were huge...1960-61 had the early December storm that we missed out on but 36" of snow in January made up for it...We also got an 8-9" storm between the big storms...The only thing missing was the two weeks of extreme cold...If you factor in cold 1960-61 beats this year...

60-61 was a more intense winter than this one in Westchester: 90" of snow fell in Dobbs Ferry with two 18" storms and a 22" snowfall on 2/4 to cap it off. The cold in January 1961 was extreme and prolonged with Dobbs Ferry recording 10 consecutive nights in the single digits. Both winters were similar in that they ended in early February: February 4th was the final major snowfall in 60-61, and the February 2nd ice storm was the last major event in this winter for all of NYC metro.

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What this weenie will never forget:

Boxing Day Blizzard Week(and Christmas week)

A-The excitement of late nights

B-The utter(what else is new disappointment)Thursday afternoon reading the forums.

C-The glimmer of hope Christmas Eve(on or about 9:AM)

D-Using my new I Pad Christmas Eve to(be unsociable as a weenie would be)..

E-Making a rather large wager to a family member(in-law) about midnite that Central Park would receive closer to 10 inches than 1 inch...(What a lock!)

F-Snow, Winds,Drifts...........

copy and paste again 1/26

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Gotta love solar minimums.

12/26 was the best storm of my life, and the 1 month period late dec-late jan was also the snowiest of my life. I wasn't old enough to really enjoy 95-96, so the past couple winters have been remarkable.

I wonder if this board had been around in 1995-96 how many "winter is over" threads we would have had in the middle of January lol.

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Nate, I dont think you can consider the Feb 1-2 event as "major" for our area, as it turned to rain and everything that fell melted. The last major event was Jan 26-27. The late Feb event is what I would consider "moderate." The early Feb storm was really not much.

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To Me,the 1993-94 winter is still #1 in my book with snow and cold and overall snowcover combined.The 12/26/1/27 period is obviously the #1 period for that time frame as well as the days with a 12+ inch snowcover.That will never be topped.But 1993-94 had snow/ice on my lawn for 90 consecutive days and on the side of my house until early April.I had 3 nights 0 or below and after the mid FEB warmup,it got cold again and lasted throughout March.I got over 60 inches of snow that winter.FEB 8 and 11th was the big events obviously.nothing like what we went through but still great.

It is like this past summer.We didnt have any stretches of record heat,no long 90 degree day stretches.it was just consistently hot with several heat waves week after week month after month.I had 48 days of 90+.End result was the hottest summer on record.While summer 1977,1993,1980,1999 and 2002 had longer consecutive 90+ degree days,they were not as hot overall as this past summer.

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Nate, I dont think you can consider the Feb 1-2 event as "major" for our area, as it turned to rain and everything that fell melted. The last major event was Jan 26-27. The late Feb event is what I would consider "moderate." The early Feb storm was really not much.

They were probably both moderate events, and both were a bigger deal in Westchester than for NYC proper. We had 2" of snow followed by sleet and ice the morning of 2/2, then another wave with half an inch of solid ice the following night. Schools were closed for both days due to the extremely treacherous driving conditions from the icing. My snowpack reached 25" on 2/2; at that point, we thought we'd get over 30" on the ground since hope was still alive for the following overrunning event that eventually went on to whiff after giving OK/AR 2' of snow. It was basically all downhill from there with the exception of the isolated 2/21 snowstorm that dropped 8" here and 3" at Central Park.

The point was mostly about how similar Winter 10-11 was to Winter 60-61.

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