SNE Summer Thread

[OKpowdah]

I feel like the forum is really lacking in long range discussion right now. I've been swamped with work recently, or otherwise I would try to whip out a write up. Usually by now we start to see some legit long range threads for the spring and summer

[free_man]

Last years summer forecast

[HoarfrostHubb]

Last years summer forecast

Heavy heavy

[OKpowdah]

Heavy heavy

not really all that bad

[free_man]

not really all that bad

It was the probabilities that "got me" as far as the forecast itself goes.

Equal chances for above or below. As we see, solidly +2 to +4 for the summer! with some areas of MA and MS/OH river areas +6! I don't think we had a day of below normal the entire summer, nevermnind a week or a month.

Not shooting down the forecast, hell I did not make one...but this goes to show the uncertainty of long range forecasting.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It was the probabilities that "got me" as far as the forecast itself goes.

Equal chances for above or below. As we see, solidly +2 to +4 for the summer! with some areas of MA and MS/OH river areas +6! I don't think we had a day of below normal the entire summer, nevermnind a week or a month.

Not shooting down the forecast, hell I did not make one...but this goes to show the uncertainty of long range forecasting.

We did have that one shot of coolness at the very end of June/early July. I think we were below for those days.

Snowed on top of the Rockpile July 1st

Overall, a hot, gross summer. Good if you are at the beach/pool.selling AC units

Is long range really any better than shooting darts?

[free_man]

Heavy heavy

Yeah, all aspects lol

[free_man]

We did have that one shot of coolness at the very end of June/early July. I think we were below for those days.

Snowed on top of the Rockpile July 1st

Overall, a hot, gross summer. Good if you are at the beach/pool.selling AC units

Is long range really any better than shooting darts?

I was exaggerating. lol there was definitely no "cool snap" week- two in the 60s or 70s with 80s interludes, that most summers have. Torcher

Some people are great with the LR forecasting. better than shooting darts , but mostly on ideas or concepts and empirical evidence, I guess

[weatherwiz]

I feel like the forum is really lacking in long range discussion right now. I've been swamped with work recently, or otherwise I would try to whip out a write up. Usually by now we start to see some legit long range threads for the spring and summer

Yeah hopefully some folks come out with something soon. I'm sure we'll see something though over the next month or so.

[Collinsville]

Going off the top of my head here but I can't recall anything great occurring in 1996

I recall there being a fluke tornado in Wolcott on the morning of July 3rd(?) that year. An upper low was around that day.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Let's pray for a '38, we all get destroyed. The NH book from '38 has extraordinary pictures, not sure you have seen it.

???

No thanks. Perhaps you've never experienced a major 'cane or a true microburst with hurricane force straight-line winds? We went through one last May and as much as I love weather I'm all set with going through something like that up close again.

[ski MRG]

???

No thanks. Perhaps you've never experienced a major 'cane or a true microburst with hurricane force straight-line winds? We went through one last May and as much as I love weather I'm all set with going through something like that up close again.

I know. What kind of kook wishes forgthat.lol Kooky.

[Allenson]

No thanks. Perhaps you've never experienced a major 'cane or a true microburst with hurricane force straight-line winds? We went through one last May and as much as I love weather I'm all set with going through something like that up close again.

Heh, I hear ya there, man. We had a thunderstorm last summer with 80mph+ straight-line winds that knocked down over an acre's worth of trees on our land.

I'm all set with that sort of thing, thanks.

[radarman]

???

No thanks. Perhaps you've never experienced a major 'cane or a true microburst with hurricane force straight-line winds? We went through one last May and as much as I love weather I'm all set with going through something like that up close again.

Was that May 4th? We lost $75K worth of solar panels from a microburst that day and a tent blew over and injured some people.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Was that May 4th? We lost $75K worth of solar panels from a microburst that day and a tent blew over and injured some people.

No the May 27 storms. The May 4th storms hit you a little harder down there than up here. Greenfield took it on the chin in the late May storm. I remember calling my wife over to the computer to show her the radar and commented how you hardly ever see storms moving straight south out of VT and that I've rarely seen purple on the radar. Went outside to secure some stuff and within 5 minutes it was like nothing I've ever seen or felt. Sounded like a freight train. We ran in the house and into the basement when the wind felt like it was blowing straight down from the sky and the windows of the house started shaking. You could hear trees snapping like gunfire and power line transformers were blowing and arcing like lightning flashes. Nuts.

Here's a good NECN story about it.

http://www.necn.com/pages/landing_arts?blockID=242590&tagID=65275

[CoastalWx]

No the May 27 storms. The May 4th storms hit you a little harder down there than up here. Greenfield took it on the chin in the late May storm. I remember calling my wife over to the computer to show her the radar and commented how you hardly ever see storms moving straight south out of VT and that I've rarely seen purple on the radar. Went outside to secure some stuff and within 5 minutes it was like nothing I've ever seen or felt. Sounded like a freight train. We ran in the house and into the basement when the wind felt like it was blowing straight down from the sky and the windows of the house started shaking. You could hear trees snapping like gunfire and power line transformers were blowing and arcing like lightning flashes. Nuts.

Here's a good NECN story about it.

http://www.necn.com/...590&tagID=65275

I just found these images I saved from the NAM and GFS. The dashed lines are Cape and the blue tints are K-Index. You can see the axis of instability over western MA. The yellow crosses are lightning at the time

[free_man]

???

No thanks. Perhaps you've never experienced a major 'cane or a true microburst with hurricane force straight-line winds? We went through one last May and as much as I love weather I'm all set with going through something like that up close again.

Most of us at some point or another have seen strong winds. The highest I've seen firsthand is between 110 and 125mph, however it still was not high enough for my liking. I'd go nuts if a '38 or a 1635 came 'knockin and welcome with open arms.

[CoastalWx]

Most of us at some point or another have seen strong winds. The highest I've seen firsthand is between 110 and 125mph, however it still was not high enough for my liking. I'd go nuts if a '38 or a 1635 came 'knockin and welcome with open arms.

When did you see those winds?

[free_man]

When did you see those winds?

Bahb '91

[free_man]

Was that May 4th? We lost $75K worth of solar panels from a microburst that day and a tent blew over and injured some people.

Ouch. I remember that..one of the few memorable storms last year.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Bahb '91

Bob was a neat event. Were you in RI for that one?

I was in Lowell at the time and it was pretty meh.

Gloria was better for me, but in coastal SNE Bob was better iirc

[CoastalWx]

Bob was a neat event. Were you in RI for that one?

I was in Lowell at the time and it was pretty meh.

Gloria was better for me, but in coastal SNE Bob was better iirc

Gloria was better for me as well.

[CoastalWx]

Bahb '91

Ahh that's right. You were on the Cape. Was it at that house in FMH???

[HoarfrostHubb]

One of the posters on here (well, on Eastern I think) was working on a boat in Narragansett Bay during Bob if I recall...

[weatherwiz]

I recall there being a fluke tornado in Wolcott on the morning of July 3rd(?) that year. An upper low was around that day.

I do think there was at least one tornado in the region on July 3rd, 1996...b/c that was a year before the tornado outbreak in MA.

[free_man]

Bob was a neat event. Were you in RI for that one?

I was in Lowell at the time and it was pretty meh.

Gloria was better for me, but in coastal SNE Bob was better iirc

Just missed if you were in Lowell, however the heavy rain was pretty sick that morning up there

[free_man]

Ahh that's right. You were on the Cape. Was it at that house in FMH???

Yeah, we were smacked pretty bad. As sick as it sounds, I want to see worse...lol were you in Brockton? That was near the high wind cutoff, iirc.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, we were smacked pretty bad. As sick as it sounds, I want to see worse...lol were you in Brockton? That was near the high wind cutoff, iirc.

Yeah we had the eye move overhead, but of course...the eye was 60 miles wide at that point..lol. It was worse to my south and east for sure. We lost power and had some trees down, but it wasn't that big of a deal. When Gloria hit, we had no power for about 4 or 5 days iirc. I remember a lot of tree damage with Gloria.

[free_man]

Yeah we had the eye move overhead, but of course...the eye was 60 miles wide at that point..lol. It was worse to my south and east for sure. We lost power and had some trees down, but it wasn't that big of a deal. When Gloria hit, we had no power for about 4 or 5 days iirc. I remember a lot of tree damage with Gloria.

if that PVD-BOS track held and the eyewall stayed intact a bit more, Bob would have been pretty nasty in hindsight

I don't remember Gloria much but I do remember walking around the neighborhood oogling the damage, the smell of the pines, and sap everywhere. Never forget that smell though, images escape me...we were like 7 or 8 lol

[CoastalWx]

if that PVD-BOS track held and the eyewall stayed intact a bit more, Bob would have been pretty nasty in hindsight

I don't remember Gloria much but I do remember walking around the neighborhood oogling the damage, the smell of the pines, and sap everywhere. Never forget that smell though.

I remember that from Bob too. I mean we probably had 50-70mph winds in Bob, but only lost power for 12hrs.

We were staying in Chatham right up until that morning. We had family from Toronto visiting so we rented a place down the Cape for a few days, as they never have been there. I remember telling my parents about 4 days earlier that The Weather Channel was saying a storm could come up the coast. I was being a big weenie at the time, but figured nothing would happen. While we were in Chatham, the forecasts were becoming worrisome by the day. We waited to see what the forecast was a day before the storm and decided to leave the next morning...the day of Bob's arrival. We left at like 6am and were one of the last people to cross the bridge. We got back, just in time for the wind to start cranking. As you could imagine, my Canadian relatives were stoked for a hurricane. They've never seen one before. It was definitely one of the top weather memories for me.