free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Since winter has been over for quite some time, Spring is generally very boring and uneventful, any thoughts on summer? Temps: I'm thinking near normal, maybe a hot July (+2) Active severe wx ? '88 and '99 come to mind as mod-strong Ninas following Nino. I'm no expert on ENSO. I don't remember any blockbuster events either summer, though '99 might have had a few decent ones. Tropical activity? I'm going 14/6/4 as a shot in the dark early call - two landfalls FL to NC and FL panhandle Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 It's probably going to depend on how Nina weakens and also what the NAO decides to do. If the se ridge weakens, and the NAO is negative, then we would probably see some nice fropas coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Since winter has been over for quite some time, Spring is generally very boring and uneventful, any thoughts on summer? Temps: I'm thinking near normal, maybe a hot July (+2) Active severe wx ? '88 and '99 come to mind as mod-strong Ninas following Nino. I'm no expert on ENSO. I don't remember any blockbuster events either summer, though '99 might have had a few decent ones. Tropical activity? I'm going 14/6/4 as a shot in the dark early call - two landfalls FL to NC and FL panhandle Thoughts? I hope that we don't repeat 1988 wrt heat/humidity That was a nasty one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 A somewhat cool April. Sizzling May. On the whole, slightly above normal temps for JJA. Weekly tornado watch outbreaks over New England June-July. Active start to hurricane season, winding down early. 14/8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Does April and early May sizzle or drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 A somewhat cool April. Sizzling May. On the whole, slightly above normal temps for JJA. Weekly tornado watch outbreaks over New England June-July. Active start to hurricane season, winding down early. 14/8/5 Pimping for Wiz now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Pimping for Wiz now? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2010/ww0272.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 My early thoughts (which are usually 100% incorrect anyway) are that if the Nina does weaken to near neutral levels then it will be a rather hot summer, however, if we stay more in the weak to moderate category then we will see a cooler than normal summer. '89 did have a few good severe wx events, especially the big one for SNE, 7/10/89 As far as 1999 goes it stunk for the most part, VERY active just off to our west, especially early on but this year was mainly squall lines with damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 My early thoughts (which are usually 100% incorrect anyway) are that if the Nina does weaken to near neutral levels then it will be a rather hot summer, however, if we stay more in the weak to moderate category then we will see a cooler than normal summer. '89 did have a few good severe wx events, especially the big one for SNE, 7/10/89 As far as 1999 goes it stunk for the most part, VERY active just off to our west, especially early on but this year was mainly squall lines with damaging winds. What about 1996 in terms of severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 What about 1996 in terms of severe weather? Happy birthday Sammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 I hope that we don't repeat 1988 wrt heat/humidity That was a nasty one Really? I'm all for heat as long as there are active storms. Last summer SUCKED, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 It's probably going to depend on how Nina weakens and also what the NAO decides to do. If the se ridge weakens, and the NAO is negative, then we would probably see some nice fropas coming through. I'd really like a ring of fire pattern to come to fruition...it seems like years since we had those sick NW flow clusters somewhat routinely diving out of Ontario/Quebecc.. persistent pig ridge over the Arklatex up the MS river valley, hooking it up. I think 95 or 96 featured that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Happy birthday Sammy Thanks! Beautiful day out there! Got out for a little friz earlier, now finishing up some work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Really? I'm all for heat as long as there are active storms. Last summer SUCKED, period. Give me a cold pool aloft Tradeoff just isn't there for me, but enjoy the severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 1988 was after a Nino...it was 1989 that followed the strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Thanks! Beautiful day out there! Got out for a little friz earlier, now finishing up some work Happy Birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Give me a cold pool aloft Tradeoff just isn't there for me, but enjoy the severe Give me a 70/50 cold pool with 40kt 850 winds quickly ripping into 90/70 airmass with a triple point low right near ALB, warm front extending right across to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 1988 was after a Nino...it was 1989 that followed the strong Nina. Thank you, '89 featured the best (worst) severe event of many peoples lives for CT...let's hope for the best (worst) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 My early thoughts (which are usually 100% incorrect anyway) are that if the Nina does weaken to near neutral levels then it will be a rather hot summer, however, if we stay more in the weak to moderate category then we will see a cooler than normal summer. '89 did have a few good severe wx events, especially the big one for SNE, 7/10/89 As far as 1999 goes it stunk for the most part, VERY active just off to our west, especially early on but this year was mainly squall lines with damaging winds. I remember a few events there in 99 but nothing too "dangerous". Of course Floyd was memorable, I would chase it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Since winter has been over for quite some time, Spring is generally very boring and uneventful, any thoughts on summer? Temps: I'm thinking near normal, maybe a hot July (+2) Active severe wx ? '88 and '99 come to mind as mod-strong Ninas following Nino. I'm no expert on ENSO. I don't remember any blockbuster events either summer, though '99 might have had a few decent ones. Tropical activity? I'm going 14/6/4 as a shot in the dark early call - two landfalls FL to NC and FL panhandle Thoughts? 17/10/6 1st storm in May 3 in June. 4 LF systems 2 FL Panhandle 1 lifting north... 2 Carolina's and 1 LI/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 With a Nina hangover and +AMO, the summer will probably be warm again, if the NAO doesn't really manifest itself. I still think it may be a bit warmer than normal..even with a -NAO. Probably some nice high humidity for Ray. He loves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 17/10/6 1st storm in May 3 in June. 4 LF systems 2 FL Panhandle 1 lifting north... 2 Carolina's and 1 LI/NE Thanks....lol...you just saying that to excite weenies? I doubt LI/NE gets one, maybe a TS or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 17/10/6 1st storm in May 3 in June. 4 LF systems 2 FL Panhandle 1 lifting north... 2 Carolina's and 1 LI/NE I guess you agree with Nick who's going for a landfall near KGON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 My early thoughts (which are usually 100% incorrect anyway) are that if the Nina does weaken to near neutral levels then it will be a rather hot summer, however, if we stay more in the weak to moderate category then we will see a cooler than normal summer. '89 did have a few good severe wx events, especially the big one for SNE, 7/10/89 As far as 1999 goes it stunk for the most part, VERY active just off to our west, especially early on but this year was mainly squall lines with damaging winds. Wiz maybe some severe next Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I guess you agree with Nick who's going for a landfall near KGON. What are the odds of a PSM landfall this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 What are the odds of a PSM landfall this year? Better put another screw in to secure your anemometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 What are the odds of a PSM landfall this year? Let's pray for a '38, we all get destroyed. The NH book from '38 has extraordinary pictures, not sure you have seen it. http://www.amazon.co...00227272&sr=8-2 I have a copy...it says 25 cents on the cover, printed in 1938. Is that correct? There are quite a few pages of pictures from the Concord area and also out towards I-89 Sunapee, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I guess you agree with Nick who's going for a landfall near KGON. Bisect LI btwn HVN-GON. There will also be a strong TS LF in FL Panhandle then travel just left of the coast line up the Garden State PArkway to NYC-BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 What about 1996 in terms of severe weather? Going off the top of my head here but I can't recall anything great occurring in 1996...1995 was active as was 1997...I think 1996 was on the quiet side. Happy Birthday bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Wiz maybe some severe next Tuesday? I could certainly see some sort of potential across PA and western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.