0z GFS

[stormtracker]

Yeah, its a 200+ hour threat..but there is growing support for this and DT is wagging his tail

[Kmlwx]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:44 AM, stormtracker said:

Yeah, its a 200+ hour threat..but there is growing support for this and DT is wagging his tail

I'll get excited when you prep the bus.

[weathervswife]

Is this the first model thread? I thought about starting one, but way too far out yet. However, if Euro is onboard at 0z and 12z, I'll start one on the big boy's board at 0z tomorrow.

[Kmlwx]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:49 AM, weathervswife said:

Is this the first model thread? I thought about starting one, but way too far out yet. However, if Euro is onboard at 0z and 12z, I'll start one on the big boy's board at 0z tomorrow.

Eh...its still awfully early. DT woofed at a threat in the Dec 9-10 frame. Our model threads bear resemblance to Christmas in stores - earlier and earlier

[Ian]

let's back the block up to the s-west a bit.

i guess cold rain is better than nothing.

[2010 extreme]

This storm was consistently on the GFS a few days ago, then turned into a huge blast of cold air and just now is comming back.

[stormtracker]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:51 AM, Ian said:

let's back the block up to the s-west a bit.

i guess cold rain is better than nothing.

Yeah, that's my concern, but I'm not going to get overly worried about that on a 200+ prog right now. There will probably be a SE Ridge on the 12z gfs.

[nzucker]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:55 AM, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that's my concern, but I'm not going to get overly worried about that on a 200+ prog right now. There will probably be a SE Ridge on the 12z gfs.

I don't think so. The pattern looks good for the storm with a near-record -NAO/-AO block; the storm is forced under the Greenland ridge, and the higher heights over the Arctic are pushing cold air into Canada.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

well something to looks at, hopefull the 0z euro stays the course from the 12z

bus is being washed

[Ian]

im preemptively slashing the tires of the bus before it gets out of control

[lester]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:28 AM, Ian said:

im preemptively slashing the tires of the bus before it gets out of control

Booo

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

[MidlothianWX]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:23 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

well something to looks at, hopefull the 0z euro stays the course from the 12z

bus is being washed

We need bigger.

[stormtracker]

  On 11/29/2010 at 3:16 PM, MidlothianWX said:

We need bigger.

[Avdave]

6z says put the bus back in the mothballs

[Midlo Snow Maker]

  On 11/29/2010 at 3:28 PM, AppalachianWX said:

6z says put the bus back in the mothballs

12z says back it up to the gas pumps

[stormtracker]

12z is a suppressive mess

[Midlo Snow Maker]

man this thing just bombs, but to far offshore

goes from 1001mb to 982mb in 12 hours

[Dr No]

The 12Z is almost a totally different solution that just happened to get to the same point with the storm potential, by dumb luck. If you notice, it's missing "the" storm coming through the rockies this run that's suppose to setup the winter storm potential.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:34 PM, stormtracker said:

12z is a suppressive mess

"BALL PARK" tracker thats all that counts at this point pattern looks good

you finish taking that bus for a test run and people will hop on

[aldie 22]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:39 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

"BALL PARK" tracker thats all that counts at this point pattern looks good

you finish taking that bus for a test run and people will hop on

Randy got taller?

[stormtracker]

  On 11/29/2010 at 4:41 PM, leesburg 04 said:

Randy got taller?

Nice

[Midlo Snow Maker]

12Z CANADIAN looks good fo DC

[Nikolai]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:11 PM, Midlo Snow Maker said:

12Z CANADIAN looks good fo DC

DT: "THIS COULD BE THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM EVER FOR LOWER MID ATLANTIC

ric phf dca cho roa lyh rdu gso int avl sby maybe cape may "

http://www.stormvist...indpost&p=78160

& that map looks like a good 2-4" for DC with the first system. Would be a great start to the month!

[Dr No]

GFS is the only model that shears this clipper system out... over-amplifying the northern stream dynamics has been a big bias in years past in this time frame. Let's see what the Euro says at 12Z.

Even though I get annoyed at people saying to check the BL and surface temps every other post during a DC event track, I am glad this one is timed for Saturday night.

[Analog96]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:13 PM, Nikolai said:

DT: "THIS COULD BE THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM EVER FOR LOWER MID ATLANTIC

ric phf dca cho roa lyh rdu gso int avl sby maybe cape may "

http://www.stormvist...indpost&p=78160

& that map looks like a good 2-4" for DC with the first system. Would be a great start to the month!

DT honking for his own backyard. No surprise here!

[yoda]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:46 PM, Analog96 said:

DT honking for his own backyard. No surprise here!

I am not sure he does much of that to be honest, He always complains of being in the screw zone alot.

[Kmlwx]

It's good that we are at least tracking something. My mind won't let me believe that this is coming, though. We were spoiled far too much to have us get slammed again. But I'm praying for it.

[yoda]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:52 PM, Kmlwx said:

It's good that we are at least tracking something. My mind won't let me believe that this is coming, though. We were spoiled far too much to have us get slammed again. But I'm praying for it.

Its 2010

[Kmlwx]

  On 11/29/2010 at 5:53 PM, yoda said:

Its 2010

This is true. I do get that feeling down in my stomach of excitement but it's just too good to be true. I'll go ahead and call for sunny and cold.

[stormtracker]

We're all looking at that nice system for D 8-10, but there's one at 144 hours that I'm more interested in..not because its bigger, but because its a bit closer to reality time than the Day 8-10 monster.