Tornado Girl Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 So true TG. However I don't see antecedent cloud cover or MCS' or associated debris being an issue tomorrow. To me very similar setup to this past Tuesday. Good height falls will aid in the intensification of the low & mid level L/R plus we have mean NW flow aloft. WNW-NW flow aloft with inverted V soundings we usually do quite well. I forgot to add that LI will be in the -3 to -4 range. Yes when there is a NW flow with this kind of set up SE NYS normally does very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I forgot to add that LI will be in the -3 to -4 range. Yes when there is a NW flow with this kind of set up SE NYS normally does very well. Using Evan's work (from BGM) on V soundings and severe wx across CNY and NEPA it looks like we'll definitely have 5-9 reps of severe wx. Some parameters are very very close to making it a major event. 12z GFS is actually a bit > than NAM is on CAPES for tomorrow mid afternoon. LI a bit less though. GFS fcst DCAPES are very high with a lot of CAPE in the favored hail growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Using Evan's work (from BGM) on V soundings and severe wx across CNY and NEPA it looks like we'll definitely have 5-9 reps of severe wx. Some parameters are very very close to making it a major event. 12z GFS is actually a bit > than NAM is on CAPES for tomorrow mid afternoon. LI a bit less though. GFS fcst DCAPES are very high with a lot of CAPE in the favored hail growth zone. SBCAPE, BRN, and Lapse rates are still looking great...... if the Jet and shear would get in the game, you would have a Royal Flush. I think those two parameters will keep this from becoming too major...... Any thoughts on that possible MCS Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SBCAPE, BRN, and Lapse rates are still looking great...... if the Jet and shear would get in the game, you would have a Royal Flush. I think those two parameters will keep this from becoming too major...... Any thoughts on that possible MCS Wednesday morning. Per my discussions with TG ( aka the severe wx princess of the north country) today's event will be mostly hailers..could be a few large hail reps too. Shear and forcing are weak though and this will probably limit the scope of the number of severe storms today. BRNs support mostly clusters and pulse type cells. As for the MCS on WED AM our in house model continues to forecast it but it is "predicting" it to move NW -SE along a n approx Barrie-ROC-BGM line thru Wednesday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 I hope the humidity is going to come down? It got kinda unpleasant here even though it is "only" 80. Little storm popped south of here in western Albany County I see, but hasn't rained here. Per my discussions with TG ( aka the severe wx princess of the north country) today's event will be mostly hailers..could be a few large hail reps too. Shear and forcing are weak though and this will probably limit the scope of the number of severe storms today. BRNs support mostly clusters and pulse type cells. As for the MCS on WED AM our in house model continues to forecast it but it is "predicting" it to move NW -SE along a n approx Barrie-ROC-BGM line thru Wednesday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I hope the humidity is going to come down? It got kinda unpleasant here even though it is "only" 80. Little storm popped south of here in western Albany County I see, but hasn't rained here. Rick, the dew points will be better tomorrow.The 2nd weak CF tomorrow might set off a few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Per my discussions with TG ( aka the severe wx princess of the north country) today's event will be mostly hailers..could be a few large hail reps too. Shear and forcing are weak though and this will probably limit the scope of the number of severe storms today. BRNs support mostly clusters and pulse type cells. As for the MCS on WED AM our in house model continues to forecast it but it is "predicting" it to move NW -SE along a n approx Barrie-ROC-BGM line thru Wednesday AM The severe Wx princess....very funny.....Last Night, I thought the MCS would move a little closer to the CD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Front already came through, didn't it? We loosing our chances of any severe wx today? DP falling and down to 65 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Front already came through, didn't it? We loosing our chances of any severe wx today? DP falling and down to 65 now. I think it came thru your area a little over an hour ago........If nothing has fired by 5 PM....it won't....It's too bad, we can't take advantage of all this unstable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 There would certainly seem to a front or some sort of dry line between this area - 83/69 here. ALBANY PTSUNNY 85 70 60 S12 29.82F GLENS FALLS SUNNY 86 72 62 S10G18 29.79F HX 92 and Northern NY SARANAC LAKE N/A 82 48 30 SW13G22 29.84F PLATTSBURGH SUNNY 91 50 24 SW8 29.74F $$ I think it came thru your area a little over an hour ago........If nothing has fired by 5 PM....it won't....It's too bad, we can't take advantage of all this unstable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 There would certainly seem to a front or some sort of dry line between this area - 83/69 here. ALBANY PTSUNNY 85 70 60 S12 29.82F GLENS FALLS SUNNY 86 72 62 S10G18 29.79F HX 92 and Northern NY SARANAC LAKE N/A 82 48 30 SW13G22 29.84F PLATTSBURGH SUNNY 91 50 24 SW8 29.74F $ There is a small trough in SE NYS that is separating things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Things are fireing in SE NY.......one of those cells was flagging Golf Ball sized hail near Coxsackie a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Breezy and mostly sunny now here. Td took a nice drop to 63. 83/63 now. Things are fireing in SE NY.......one of those cells was flagging Golf Ball sized hail near Coxsackie a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I haven't been outside since this morning, but early afternoon we had a nice storm roll through with up to dime sized hail. Didn't notice much wind with it. Good call Andy and TG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Kinda knew the storms were going to pop S&E of the region when I saw several narrow but towering CU at 8am around Schenectady. Plus the fact they were already moving to the SE, I figuryd the front was coming through too early for anyone N&W of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm sitting here under a clear sky and 71/60 and looking south/southwest at what appears to be a vivid display of lightning showing up to about 30 degrees above the horizon. The only major storms that I see are 60 miles or more SSW in Delaware County. I did just see a little one pop about 40 miles south around Greene County. Anyway just this odd observation. No thunder heard and I guess it must be from those far distant storms. Kinda knew the storms were going to pop S&E of the region when I saw several narrow but towering CU at 8am around Schenectady. Plus the fact they were already moving to the SE, I figuryd the front was coming through too early for anyone N&W of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm sitting here under a clear sky and 71/60 and looking south/southwest at what appears to be a vivid display of lightning showing up to about 30 degrees above the horizon. The only major storms that I see are 60 miles or more SSW in Delaware County. I did just see a little one pop about 40 miles south around Greene County. Anyway just this odd observation. No thunder heard and I guess it must be from those far distant storms. Yes, I think it's from the storms around Ulster, Suillivan, and Orange Counties....I hear their seeing the lightning as far away as Utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 It was kind of eerie. Several of the local dogs were barking, etc. I see the NAM keeps Wednesday's MCC mainly west and south of BGM. Yes, I think it's from the storms around Ulster, Suillivan, and Orange Counties....I hear their seeing the lightning as far away as Utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It was kind of eerie. Several of the local dogs were barking, etc. I see the NAM keeps Wednesday's MCC mainly west and south of BGM. I guess it was quite the show.................Yeah that's the track it looks to take.......But remember, IMO Models do a much better job forecasting MCC and MCS initiation than they do the their evolution and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The severe Wx princess....very funny.....Last Night, I thought the MCS would move a little closer to the CD. Perhaps goddess is better? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It was kind of eerie. Several of the local dogs were barking, etc. I see the NAM keeps Wednesday's MCC mainly west and south of BGM. At dinner last night (at Brook's in Oneonta ) my non weather weenie family was talking about how cool the lightning display was. I missed it. On the bright side the sunrise start this morning was quite cool with layers of red sky at 5:30. The weather seems quite a bit different than what we had in July already as it is still warmer than I prefer during the day, but it is cooling down nicely most nights with the low 50's the norm lately. The house has been staying much nicer during the day also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 At dinner last night (at Brook's in Oneonta ) my non weather weenie family was talking about how cool the lightning display was. I missed it. On the bright side the sunrise start this morning was quite cool with layers of red sky at 5:30. The weather seems quite a bit different than what we had in July already as it is still warmer than I prefer during the day, but it is cooling down nicely most nights with the low 50's the norm lately. The house has been staying much nicer during the day also. Brooks. YUM! Gonna have to hit that up again when we visit the boy in Oneonta this year. Be down in Charlotteville soon. I have a fascination with old stone walls and barn foundations. Found people willing to let me take them away for nothing and build stuff in my yard with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Lake effect is going to be huge this year off lake erie if lake temps can remain this warm. The lake temp is 80 degrees of Buffalo which is taken 30 feet below the surface. Actual surface temps are in the low 80's. If we can get some sub 10C 850's come later this month and early september we could get some serious rain if everything else falls into place. Foregot to add the 80 degree temp off lake erie ties the ALL TIME warmest temp ever off Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 I have a mile of old stone walls on this property. Some in decent shape and others knocked down good. I feel like I want to leave them intact for historical reasons though so I integrated them into the lawn etc. without disturbing them and rebuilt one a bit. There is a massive pile of rocks in one spot where the farmers apparently had removed one wall and made this pile. I'd be a little worried about finding snakes in there.... Brooks. YUM! Gonna have to hit that up again when we visit the boy in Oneonta this year. Be down in Charlotteville soon. I have a fascination with old stone walls and barn foundations. Found people willing to let me take them away for nothing and build stuff in my yard with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I have a mile of old stone walls on this property. Some in decent shape and others knocked down good. I feel like I want to leave them intact for historical reasons though so I integrated them into the lawn etc. without disturbing them and rebuilt one a bit. There is a massive pile of rocks in one spot where the farmers apparently had removed one wall and made this pile. I'd be a little worried about finding snakes in there.... Rick. we have a few stone wall' s scattered around the property as well.....I feel the same as you......we left them where they were. I got to see the northern lights Fri during the overnight......did anyone else see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I have a mile of old stone walls on this property. Some in decent shape and others knocked down good. I feel like I want to leave them intact for historical reasons though so I integrated them into the lawn etc. without disturbing them and rebuilt one a bit. There is a massive pile of rocks in one spot where the farmers apparently had removed one wall and made this pile. I'd be a little worried about finding snakes in there.... I have some here too. Most are in pretty rough shape but I could never get rid of them. Tractor trailer loads leave here headed for downstate which I think is pretty sad. Oh well. Nasty muggy morning here after over 1" of rain over the weekend. Any of the brown spots in my lawn from the dry strech in July have now turned green again. Back to mowing at least once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Andy invited me to help on his blog. which I was more that happy to do......I just finished a 8 part series on severe weather awareness; now I've started one on storm chasing.........Check them out sometime......Here is a link to the latest one. http://www.wx4cast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Want to see where your stone walls are going ...head to the faux countryside of upper Westchester County and Fairfield County, CT. Also a lot of the old barn wood from Upstate is snapped up by rich people down there for that authentic look on their 5 or 10 acre mini "farms". It's all for asthetics - some have a few horses, etc., but mainly they work in NYC. Finally rid of the humidity here it seems. 59F..... I have some here too. Most are in pretty rough shape but I could never get rid of them. Tractor trailer loads leave here headed for downstate which I think is pretty sad. Oh well. Nasty muggy morning here after over 1" of rain over the weekend. Any of the brown spots in my lawn from the dry strech in July have now turned green again. Back to mowing at least once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Want to see where your stone walls are going ...head to the faux countryside of upper Westchester County and Fairfield County, CT. Also a lot of the old barn wood from Upstate is snapped up by rich people down there for that authentic look on their 5 or 10 acre mini "farms". It's all for asthetics - some have a few horses, etc., but mainly they work in NYC. Finally rid of the humidity here it seems. 59F..... Yea, I hate seeing that stuff head down there, but I guess it is better than the barns rotting to the ground or the stone walls falling down. 55.9° for the low here, feels pretty nice. The next week looks pretty nice for August with the highest high of 76° (today) and a high of 69° on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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