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Upstate NY / North Country - now on to Summer 2011


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I was out in Lyons, Wayne County yesterday and that's the way it was. Very gusty "heat wind" with temps obviously around that upper 90s or 100 mark also. The sky was largely blue despite the dew points.

It got hazier and dirtier looking as I drove east to ENY. ALB hit 99. At 1k feet here I hit 93 which ties my highest ever since I came here in 2004.

Now today we are are very blue and it seems more like yesterday's wx out west.....

It's unreal up here on the SU hill!! 100...mid 70's dew pt. and around a 30mph wind! Blast furnace! The wind really does NOTHING except kick up dust...yuck...

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Got to 92 here yesterday in Amherst but the dewpoint got up to 79 which produced a heat index of 109. Todays air temp is already much higher with it being 94.5 degrees as of 1:15pm but the dewpoint is only 67 so the heat index is 99 but today there is no breeze so it feels MUCH hotter than yesterday where there were some gust over 40mph. I bet well get close to 100 at my house with alot of urban heating. I think KBUF will hit 95 today as long as the SW wind doesnt pick up.

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That lake temperature could make for quite an explosive situation this Fall once the cold air returns. :snowman: I wonder if Lake Ontario is running warm also.

Got to 92 here yesterday in Amherst but the dewpoint got up to 79 which produced a heat index of 109. Todays air temp is already much higher with it being 94.5 degrees as of 1:15pm but the dewpoint is only 67 so the heat index is 99 but today there is no breeze so it feels MUCH hotter than yesterday where there were some gust over 40mph. I bet well get close to 100 at my house with alot of urban heating. I think KBUF will hit 95 today as long as the SW wind doesnt pick up.

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Feels a shade "better" today than yesterday when it was one of the more oppressive days I've ever experienced (or maybe I've sorta getting used to it). Mid-upper 90's at home depending on the thermometer. Still amazing that down in Albany hasn't cracked 100 degrees since the 1950's...

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Hit 99.6 in my Urban location of Eggertsville. KBUF hit 95 today which beats the old record of 94 set in 1953. Lake Erie is 78 degrees as of today, the warmest its ever been at this date. Lake effect this year could start very early and be very intense this year from the extremely high lake temp. I predict that the lake will hit 81 this year, but thats just a guess. Ill also say well see the first lake effect rain event August 24th and the first lake effect snow event October 28th. All just fun guesses.

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Nice change of pace yesterday with 1.7" of rain, enough to get the streams up and muddy. Much less rain 14 miles away in Delhi where the streams didn't come up at all. It's still warmer and "stickier" out than I prefer, but it should be good for the garden, if I can keep my tomato plants upright - they have completly overwelmed the cheap tomato cages they were in.

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Got slammed just south of home and work. Tornado Warnings out around 1:15 or so.

Some pea sized hail at work and in Westmo at home.

Nice gallery here:

http://www.wktv.com/...g=64&c=y&page=1

Impressive. Another 0.8" of rain at my house. Saw some small branches down, along with my neighbor's corn and my zuccini plants blown partially down.

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Impressive. Another 0.8" of rain at my house. Saw some small branches down, along with my neighbor's corn and my zuccini plants blown partially down.

1.08" in the bucket this morning. And from NWS BGM:

.. Microburst /straight line wind damage/ confirmed near

Franklin Springs in Oneida County New York...

Location... Franklin Springs in Oneida County New York

date... July 26 2011

estimated time... 1255 to 104 PM EDT

estimated maximum wind speed... 90 mph

maximum path width... 1600 yards or 0.9 miles

path length... 5.5 miles

beginning lat/Lon... 43.04n / 75.42w

ending lat/Lon... 43.02n / 75.31w

* fatalities... 0

* injuries... 0

* the information in this statement is preliminary and subject to

change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS

storm data.

... Summary...

the National Weather Service in Binghamton, NY has confirmed a

microburst /straight line wind damage/ near Franklin Springs in

Oneida County New York on July 26 2011.

The path of damage began on Reservoir Road... in the town of

Kirkland... where two trees were downed. The path continued eastward

across Harding Road... or State Route 233... where numerous

additional trees were snapped or uprooted. These first two

locations exhibited damage consistent with winds of 70-80 mph.

Farther east in Franklin Springs... the damage intensified on

furnace street... just west of State Route 12b. One to two dozen

trees were downed... including a large healthy Black Walnut tree

snapped just above the base. Several of the trees were down on

houses. The damage at this location was consistent with winds

around 90 mph.

The damage path continued eastward across Route 12b... where

several more trees were snapped or uprooted between siedsma court

and Grant Road. The damage at these locations were consistent

with winds of 80-90 mph.

Farther east across Grant Road... a large wood pole was snapped at

south street. At this point... damage was consistent with winds

around 90 mph.

The storm continued eastward across Fountain street and Craig

Road... where one tree was uprooted... but mostly larger branches

were downed. Damage at these locations were consistent with winds

around 70 mph.

The storm continued eastward across State Route 12... between

County Route 13 and burmaster Road... where part of a tin roof was

peeled off a barn. Minor tree damage was also observed. Damage at

this location was consistent with winds of 60-70 mph.

The storm then tracked east-southeastward into the town of

Paris... near the intersection of Grange Hill and Snowden Hill

roads. A wood pole was snapped near the top. Some residential

shingle damage was noted... along with minor tree damage. Damage at

this location was consistent with winds of 70-80 mph.

The storm appeared to weaken thereafter... with just sporadic minor

damage on Oneida street... between Chadwicks and Sauquoit.

All of the damage along this path was pointed towards the east.

This pattern would be consistent with microburst or straight line winds.

Can actually see a brief touchdown too in this video. Think this was south of the microburst area.

http://www.wktv.com/news/local/Viewers-capture-tornado-touching-down-126238423.html

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It was just a lot of torrential downpours here and some thunder - but things got more intense in the HV and points east it seems:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

500 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS MICROBURST IN COLONIE NY...

LOCATION...COLONIE...ALBANY COUNTY...NEW YORK

DATE...JULY 26 2011

ESTIMATED TIME...159 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF SCALE RATING...N/A

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH

ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...0.5 MILE

PATH LENGTH...0.5 MILE

BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.719181/-73.810465

ENDING LAT/LON...42.714737/-73.801767

* FATALITIES...NONE

* INJURIES...NONE

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM VERIFIED A MICROBURST

CENTERED AT COMPUTER DRIVE WEST AND WOLFE RD IN COLONIE. DAMAGE

WAS CONFINED TO DOWNED TREES...WITH NO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. A FEW

TREES WERE TOPPLED OR SNAPPED. MOSTLY BRANCHES DOWN

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It was just a lot of torrential downpours here and some thunder - but things got more intense in the HV and points east it seems:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

500 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS MICROBURST IN COLONIE NY...

LOCATION...COLONIE...ALBANY COUNTY...NEW YORK

DATE...JULY 26 2011

ESTIMATED TIME...159 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF SCALE RATING...N/A

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH

ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...0.5 MILE

PATH LENGTH...0.5 MILE

BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.719181/-73.810465

ENDING LAT/LON...42.714737/-73.801767

* FATALITIES...NONE

* INJURIES...NONE

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM VERIFIED A MICROBURST

CENTERED AT COMPUTER DRIVE WEST AND WOLFE RD IN COLONIE. DAMAGE

WAS CONFINED TO DOWNED TREES...WITH NO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. A FEW

TREES WERE TOPPLED OR SNAPPED. MOSTLY BRANCHES DOWN

I was there when it occurred.....at the Hannafords on Wolf rd.which is at the end of Computer Dr. Wild few minutes.............hail also.
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Looks like NWS Albany has comparisons on the old climate data vs the new. Unfortunately most of the data is just in the Hudson Valley corridor, but some of it is telling. Albany itself is a bit warmer, wetter, and less snowy. Actually, average snowfall in ALB has decreased significantly since I moved up here in the mid 90's. I think it was 65 or 66" before 2000, then it dropped to ~62 or 63" for the 1971-2000 period, and now its down to ~59". Most other stations throughout the northeast increased snowfall for the 1981-2010 period, including in eastern NY (Glens Falls and NYC). Maybe a long run of bad luck at that particular station?

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Looks like NWS Albany has comparisons on the old climate data vs the new. Unfortunately most of the data is just in the Hudson Valley corridor, but some of it is telling. Albany itself is a bit warmer, wetter, and less snowy. Actually, average snowfall in ALB has decreased significantly since I moved up here in the mid 90's. I think it was 65 or 66" before 2000, then it dropped to ~62 or 63" for the 1971-2000 period, and now its down to ~59". Most other stations throughout the northeast increased snowfall for the 1981-2010 period, including in eastern NY (Glens Falls and NYC). Maybe a long run of bad luck at that particular station?

Probably nothing more than a blip....I know GFL has had winters of 100+ inches or high 90s 4 out of the last 7 winters. Inaddition some of the storms that either changed to rain or sleet/ZR in the CD were ALL snow to Albany's W & N.

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I was there when it occurred.....at the Hannafords on Wolf rd.which is at the end of Computer Dr. Wild few minutes.............hail also.

We had pea-sized hail at the station and a gust to 42 mph, too. We also got a lot of the storm on video..awesome cyclonic rotation to the clouds too.

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We had pea-sized hail at the station and a gust to 42 mph, too. We also got a lot of the storm on video..awesome cyclonic rotation to the clouds too.

As it sagged south, some of the updraft clouds were definitely spinning. I thought there was a decent shot of a funnel cloud dropping down out of that twisting mess converging from the N, S, and West. There was a well defined rounded edge on the South side just past Crossgates Mall that was pushing North into the storm while regenerating the edge in the same spot. Then, in a matter of minutes it all just jumped to the South and East. Today I think is a bust for everyone from the CD....N&W. A few passing garden variety showers at best in most places, certainly not the 1/2-1" QPF predicted by NOAA
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Yeah I think the immediate CD has anti snow shield like DT down in Richmond now. LOL I used to compile records as a kid and up to my early 30s religiously where I lived between Saugerties and Catskill - 1978-1998 record and my average snowfall was in the high 50's inches... You mean to say that ALB now doesn't even get more snow than the HV 40 miles south?

Looks like NWS Albany has comparisons on the old climate data vs the new. Unfortunately most of the data is just in the Hudson Valley corridor, but some of it is telling. Albany itself is a bit warmer, wetter, and less snowy. Actually, average snowfall in ALB has decreased significantly since I moved up here in the mid 90's. I think it was 65 or 66" before 2000, then it dropped to ~62 or 63" for the 1971-2000 period, and now its down to ~59". Most other stations throughout the northeast increased snowfall for the 1981-2010 period, including in eastern NY (Glens Falls and NYC). Maybe a long run of bad luck at that particular station?

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The NWS out of Binghamton confirmed Three tornadoes. one was an EF0 near Guilford in Chenango County, the other two were EF1's near Burlington Flat in Otsego County . The survey team also looked at damage near Richfield Springs in Otsego County and determined it was from straight line winds; the winds were estimated to be around 60 mph. Earlier in the day it looked like there was a terrible setup for severe weather. The CAPE was low and the other indices didn't look great. The RUC showed the best environment for severe wx was along the NY/PA border where BRN was running 18-25. The SPC was watching this area too. SPC released a Mesoscale Discussion, they were concerned about the MVC left over from the MCS that swept through W NYS in the morning. The wind in mid to upper levels of the atmosphere started increasing in the afternoon. Because of the MVC and approaching shortwave there was an increase in shear values...effective shear values were 40-55 knots and DP was in the high 60 low 70 range. Because of this SPC raised the TOR and wind potential. Earlier in the week on the 26th, the Setup that caused the Supercell and EF0 south of Rome, NY ...(the tornado showed a nice hook and inflow notch on radar). .. looked better than the setup on Friday. The Tuesday soundings showed fat CAPES and inverted V Signatures....Also, CAPES were better at 1000-2000 J/kg. It just goes to show you never know when Severe Wx will strike in the Northeast. When watching for severe weather in New York State CAPE isn't everything BRN is the thing to watch.

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Nice post TG..tomorrow could be another moderate to widespread day for severe. Once again fat CAPES some suggestion of V sigs on the forecast soundings and most important the BRN in the "sweet" 15-22 range across ENY and WNE. IMO hail reps will dominate 3 to 1 or 2 (latter wind reports). Once again there could also be some discrete and isolated supercells that develop out ahead of the primary clusters or QLCS' that will likely form. Also looks like an "early show" 12-1 pm across 'Dacks and N'rn Greens 2-4 pm for The MV, HV (including Albany), Berkshires and N'rn Catskills then 4-7 PM areas farther to the south and southeast.

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Thanks Andy, I agree on the setup for Monday. Right now the timing looks good...things should kick off when there is max heating. The DP will be around 65 and temps in the 80-85 range. CAPE looks to be 1500- 2200 J/Kg and TOTAL TOTALS in the 50-54 range. Add in decent mid level rates and forcing ...and everything looks to be in place........Hail and strong wind gust will be the big problem....If we can get more directional shear things could get interesting.....But you know what they say about counting your chickens.....What's the count three or four bust this summer under very similar conditions?....I guess we will see tomorrow.

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Thanks Andy, I agree on the setup for Monday. Right now the timing looks good...things should kick off when there is max heating. The DP will be around 65 and temps in the 80-85 range. CAPE looks to be 1500- 2200 J/Kg and TOTAL TOTALS in the 50-54 range. Add in decent mid level rates and forcing.....And everything looks to be in place........Hail and strong wind gust will be the big problem....If we can get more directional shear things could get interesting.....But you know what they say about counting your chickens.....What's the count three or four bust this summer under very similar conditions?....I guess we will see tomorrow.

So true TG. However I don't see antecedent cloud cover or MCS' or associated debris being an issue tomorrow. To me very similar setup to this past Tuesday. Good height falls will aid in the intensification of the low & mid level L/R plus we have mean NW flow aloft. WNW-NW flow aloft with inverted V soundings we usually do quite well.

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