Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 at 192, has a low in NW Arkansas that looks to be heading towards the Mid Atlantic. This would probably yield a 4-8 inch solution for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 While I agree that this threat is legit, let's keep climo in mind. Outside of December 1973, it is hard to find a big DCA storm in a La Niña. This is going back to the 54/55 winter, though. Did anything ever happen before that winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 While I agree that this threat is legit, let's keep climo in mind. Outside of December 1973, it is hard to find a big DCA storm in a La Niña. This is going back to the 54/55 winter, though. Did anything ever happen before that winter? do you mean a December storm or just a storm in general for DC in a La Nina winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 at 192, has a low in NW Arkansas that looks to be heading towards the Mid Atlantic. This would probably yield a 4-8 inch solution for DC At 186hr, the 18Z DGEX has a 1016mb stretched out between Eastern OK/NE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 do you mean a December storm or just a storm in general for DC in a La Nina winter? A December KU storm. Only Dec 16-17, 1973 is coming to mind where DCA beat everyone, receiving 10.2 inches. PHL only got 3.8" ... NYC 2.8" and ABE 6.2" .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 its 1008 low on the JMA with decent precip. Its not the Feb 2010 Blizzard but its something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 A December KU storm. Only Dec 16-17, 1973 is coming to mind where DCA beat everyone, receiving 10.2 inches. PHL only got 3.8" ... NYC 2.8" and ABE 6.2" .... well...its a hard to get a KU Storm for DCA no matter what ENSO lol. Last year was just nuts but even that KU was late in Dec(Dec 19-20). I dont remember many December storms period for DC that were really significant? 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 we had a 3-5 inch storm at IAD sometime in Dec 2000 and it stuck around through Christmas because it was so cold. I still remember on Dec 25,2000...the EURO called for a HECS for Dec 31,2000 and it ended up being a Miller B miss. 2000-2001 was probably the most frustrating winter ever for me because we were so close to so many big storms. Then to make it worse 01-02 came next. Terrible stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 we had a 3-5 inch storm at IAD sometime in Dec 2000 and it stuck around through Christmas because it was so cold. I still remember on Dec 25,2000...the EURO called for a HECS for Dec 31,2000 and it ended up being a Miller B miss. 2000-2001 was probably the most frustrating winter ever for me because we were so close to so many big storms. Then to make it worse 01-02 came next. Terrible stretch Yeah December 2000 was a great storm if you were north of PHL. Up in here northern NJ, some places got nearly 24" in 1 day from a solid 3"/hr band. Hard to achieve near zero visibility with no wind! The storm coming up next week is more El Niño-ish than anything with a STJ wave coming out behind a departing vortex and breaking down NAO signal. This was always the potential period for something given the projected NAO/EPO. The thing is: will the Pacific Jet begin to disturb things again as we get closer? Let's not forget the potential wave ahead of it either which ECMWF slowly keeps shifting southward. Is that accumulating snow in VA on the ECMWF? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah December 2000 was a great storm if you were north of PHL. Up in here northern NJ, some places got nearly 24" in 1 day from a solid 3"/hr band. Hard to achieve near zero visibility with no wind! The storm coming up next week is more El Niño-ish than anything with a STJ wave coming out behind a departing vortex and breaking down NAO signal. This was always the potential period for something given the projected NAO/EPO. The thing is: will the Pacific Jet begin to disturb things again as we get closer? Let's not forget the potential wave ahead of it either which ECMWF slowly keeps shifting southward. Is that accumulating snow in VA on the ECMWF? lol Euro had .20 of qpf at IAD with 2m temps at 32 it has .37 at RIC but 2m temps at 37-38 despite being plenty cold at 850. Congrats DT? you remember the ECMWF had the Dec 2000 storm as a fully phased solution at one point where everyone from VA to ME would be buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Euro had .20 of qpf at IAD with 2m temps at 32 it has .37 at RIC but 2m temps at 37-38 despite being plenty cold at 850. Congrats DT? you remember the ECMWF had the Dec 2000 storm as a fully phased solution at one point where everyone from VA to ME would be buried I do man. That was a terrible winter for phasing potentials that didn't materialize. December 2000 was suppose to phase right up until the night before and it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 we had a 3-5 inch storm at IAD sometime in Dec 2000 and it stuck around through Christmas because it was so cold. I still remember on Dec 25,2000...the EURO called for a HECS for Dec 31,2000 and it ended up being a Miller B miss. 2000-2001 was probably the most frustrating winter ever for me because we were so close to so many big storms. Then to make it worse 01-02 came next. Terrible stretch DCA itself is terrible, but at IAD, here are all Ninas/almost Ninas (tri month MEI of roughly -.4 or lower) and their December snowfall since 1960 (used BWI for 61 and 62) 1961: 7.2" 1962: 11.7" 1964: 1.0" 1970: 9.2" 1971: T 1973: 10.7" 1974: 1.0" 1975: .9" 1984: T 1988: 1.0" 1995: 2.5" 1998: .6" 1999: .2" 2000: 3.1" 2005: 5.7" 2007: 2.5" 2008: T Very hit or miss, I think the big gap during the late 70s through the 90s could be partially attributed to the terrible Decembers that were generally common back then... maybe not, I dunno. I don't really think you can get a feel, especially since the sample size of Ninas as strong as our current one is so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 00z Gfs copies 12z jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 All systems go for early Dec snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 29/11/2010 00Z GFS Likes the Idea now too.... But I don't get the warm and fuzzies with the GFS setup. I've seen alot of sleet/ice events look like that with another shot of Arctic air pushing into the plains as the storm moves by. Hope the Atlantic blocking is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The wave the Euro does something with on Day 6 is there... just the GFS wisks it out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This is a much more impressive snow signal for the east on the Ensemble Mean (established cold air)... and especially with the QPF at 192 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 the 0z euro looks similar (I think) to the 0z GFS 11/29.. waiting for official word on it though. Good looking event up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 good lord, 00z 240hr euro would make one nice screen saver for you folks from NC to DC.... just WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 good lord, 00z 240hr euro would make one nice screen saver for you folks from NC to DC.... just WOW Lets be honest though, we've seen plenty 240hr screen saver shots before. I'd take this like I did with those ones, and file them under fantasy won't happen storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Lets be honest though, we've seen plenty 240hr screen saver shots before. I'd take this like I did with those ones, and file them under fantasy won't happen storms. true... but at least it indicates that the weenie season has officially begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Does anyone have maps of the 0z Euro between hours 144 and 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Euro actually looks more like a southern slider than anything else....it gets suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I know the DGEX is taken from the 00Z GFS...but it looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I know the DGEX is taken from the 00Z GFS...but it looks beautiful. Obviously its the DGEX, but this shows that the potential of more North track could be in the cards. Obviously I'd be a fool to hang my hat on the DGEX ever but there is always a potential of it being correct, 0.00001%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Obviously its the DGEX, but this shows that the potential of more North track could be in the cards. Obviously I'd be a fool to hang my hat on the DGEX ever but there is always a potential of it being correct, 0.00001%. Here's hoping that the 12Z GFS follows suit with the 12Z JMA, 00Z GFS, and 06Z DGEX. Any word on the 00Z JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Here's hoping that the 12Z GFS follows suit with the 12Z JMA, 00Z GFS, and 06Z DGEX. Any word on the 00Z JMA? Sarcasm eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 good lord, 00z 240hr euro would make one nice screen saver for you folks from NC to DC.... just WOW 216 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I do man. That was a terrible winter for phasing potentials that didn't materialize. December 2000 was suppose to phase right up until the night before and it didn't. I did not know this little tidbit about December 2000. I just remember there was the uncertainty with the miller B setup, and I was very nervous about the storm the night before. Of course we all know the other storm that winter, which will remain nameless, was supposed to phase earlier then it did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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