Hoosier Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Certainly not representative of the 2000s. EDIT: I can only find the data from 2000-2005, but TX had more than three times as many tornados as MN 2000-2005. It's pretty hard to beat Texas in a raw count given their size...I wouldn't expect any state to do it very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It's pretty hard to beat Texas in a raw count given their size...I wouldn't expect any state to do it very often. True. Though the western half of TX is sparsely populated compared to the vast majority of the eastern half of the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryadiabat Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 In my opinion, the high frequency of nocturnal tornado events in the Southeast is the primary reason for the relatively high number of tornado deaths. A recent study by the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at SPC of the 10 year period ending in 2009 tends to supports this. It found that Tennessee had the highest number of tornado fatalities but that 75% of these fatalities occurred during nighttime hours, compared to the national average of 52%. I can speak from experience—people in this region are very aware of severe weather threats and willing to take action. There doesn’t seem to be much difference in awareness/willingness in this state compared to the other four states that I’ve lived in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 In my opinion, the high frequency of nocturnal tornado events in the Southeast is the primary reason for the relatively high number of tornado deaths. Certainly, this is a part of it. It doesn't have to do with people deciding to throw themselves into a tornado's path and just ignore everything to be "at God's will" or anything. A few reasons that the southeast death rate is high: 1) As you mentioned, a much higher preponderance of nocturnal tornadoes 2) Higher frequence of rain-wrapped tornadoes 3) Inability to see "from horizon to horizon" in the southeast The above three relate to the fact that, in general, you have a much better chance of "seeing what's coming" in the Midwest. Then, there are a few more: 4) Violent tornadoes in the Midwest typically have longer tracks and warning times 5) The Southeast has a much higher population density 6) Somewhat related to the above, there are many more mobile homes in the southeast 7) The water table in most of the southeast is much closer to ground level, making basements relatively rare due to the expense of building them and keeping the water out. Most people do not have (or won't spend) the money for a bona-fide storm shelter, but most Midwestern houses have basements while it only a very small percentage of Southeast homes have basements (at least in the primary areas affected, which are the low elevations of "Dixie Alley") Now, trust me when I say this. On Super Tuesday, a funnel cloud went directly over my house and there just wasn't any more that I could do than get everyone into the interior bathroom downstairs. Other than that, we were pretty much SOL if there was a touchdown. Short of people canceling work and school for every tornado watch, you just don't have a chance to get anywhere that's really safe without a basement or shelter on hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryadiabat Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 [...] 3) Inability to see "from horizon to horizon" in the southeast The above three relate to the fact that, in general, you have a much better chance of "seeing what's coming" in the Midwest. Research in the field of emergency management has found that when given warning people often initially have disbelief due to normalcy bias and will frequently seek to confirm a warning (not just severe weather warnings). To a lesser extent, a high false alarm rate in warnings contributes to a person’s need to seek confirmation. There are many methods that people try and seek confirmation (calling a friend or family member, turning on the TV after their weather radio goes off, etc.) but I would venture to say that attempting to see it for themselves is probably the most common. Trees, terrain, and typical storm characteristics (rain wrapped) significantly limit their ability to do so. I would argue that witnessing a tornado is the most convincing “cue” a person will have. In the absence of this, a person may be more apt to believe that the threat is not imminent and they wouldn’t take immediate action. So, the lack of horizon-to-horizon visibility in the vast majority of the Southeast is probably more of a common factor than many believe it to be. Good points, good discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The little max in Florida, I assume sea breeze collisions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForecastingNature Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Hello, my first post on here! I’ve had an interest in Forecasting Nature for over 25 years now. Over the last six months or so I have turned my hand to the prediction of the weather, so I am a relative newcomer to this field. So far, I have made five experimental forecasts, usually at least one month ahead, and they have been fairly successful. It is far too early in my testing stage to: (i) make any claim that I am able to predict the weather accurately; or (ii) take up peoples’ time with any discussion about the method I use (which I may enter into only if the method proves its worth over an extended length of time). In the light of the above, I thought I would join this Forum and thread in order to share with you a forecast I made three months ago for a tornado to take place in May 2011. The map below shows the location of a powerful tornado (with up to a one mile track width) I am forecasting to take place in the early hours (around 1:30am) on Wednesday 18 May 2011. The forecast is for the tornado, travelling from west to east, to take place in/around the Ohio region; however, purely for the purposes of my fine tuning of the method I use, I shall have a stab at being a little more precise. In the map below, the red box shows the rough area I would expect the tornado to take place; the blue box tries to be more specific; and the green box is for when one wanted to be very specific indeed. I am expecting variances between the precise (green box) forecast and actual; the variances will provide me with vital information for fine tuning my method (hence the reason for being so specific in this experimental forecast). This is the very first time I have predicted a tornado, so not really sure how wide the variance will be; naturally, I would hope that I am totally wrong and that no harm comes to anyone. Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Hello, my first post on here! I’ve had an interest in Forecasting Nature for over 25 years now. Over the last six months or so I have turned my hand to the prediction of the weather, so I am a relative newcomer to this field. So far, I have made five experimental forecasts, usually at least one month ahead, and they have been fairly successful. It is far too early in my testing stage to: (i) make any claim that I am able to predict the weather accurately; or (ii) take up peoples’ time with any discussion about the method I use (which I may enter into only if the method proves its worth over an extended length of time). In the light of the above, I thought I would join this Forum and thread in order to share with you a forecast I made three months ago for a tornado to take place in May 2011. The map below shows the location of a powerful tornado (with up to a one mile track width) I am forecasting to take place in the early hours (around 1:30am) on Wednesday 18 May 2011. The forecast is for the tornado, travelling from west to east, to take place in/around the Ohio region; however, purely for the purposes of my fine tuning of the method I use, I shall have a stab at being a little more precise. In the map below, the red box shows the rough area I would expect the tornado to take place; the blue box tries to be more specific; and the green box is for when one wanted to be very specific indeed. I am expecting variances between the precise (green box) forecast and actual; the variances will provide me with vital information for fine tuning my method (hence the reason for being so specific in this experimental forecast). This is the very first time I have predicted a tornado, so not really sure how wide the variance will be; naturally, I would hope that I am totally wrong and that no harm comes to anyone. Nick What happens if the tornado occurs at 2:30am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Some stuff about forecasting a tornado weeks in advance Nick Ummm... I'll just say that there are several big red flags that pop up in this post and leave it at that (for now at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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