Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I decided to head out to Iowa... Should be out between Stuart, IA and Omaha, NE before 3PM. Just east of Des Moines now... Target will be between Red Oak and Creston, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I ran some calculations using forecast variables near Atlantic, IA for the 21z time frame this afternoon. If we can reach 70/60, with about 1500 j/kg CAPE and an LCL around 2,500 ft AGL (which seem reasonable at this point). RUC was aggressive with CAPEs around 2500, so I took a significant percentage off that. It won't take much heating/moisture today with the lapse rates out there. These values give a straight line wind potential of right around 60 mph and a rotational wind potential of around 110 mph. So winds look marginal to just above severe, with tornadic winds approaching the lower bound of EF2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 VALID 221819Z - 222015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB AND ECNTRL KS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED...LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE WILL BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like ACCAS forming in Kansas, Great Bend is reporting SCT100 ceilings. Probably the arrival of the forcing, shouldn't be long now in the target area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN MISSOURI EASTERN NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF STORM LAKE IOWA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST NEB THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA/WESTERN MO BY EARLY EVENING. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...GUYER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Pretty stout capping on the 18z special sounding. Height falls should be able to take care of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Storm on the KS/NE line, may already have rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 And that storm sw of Hastings went from nothing to svr in a half hour. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Here we go, cells firing from Colfax County, Nebraska down to that cell in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The cell near Pilger, NE has a meso through a decent depth now. Edit: And as I type that... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 319 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN STANTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PILGER...OR 18 MILES EAST OF NORFOLK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I like the environment that is developing just north of Omaha. Some 0-3km CAPE starting to show up along with good low level lapse rates. This should maximize the updrafts potential to ingest some of this helicity in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I like the environment that is developing just north of Omaha. Some 0-3km CAPE starting to show up along with good low level lapse rates. This should maximize the updrafts potential to ingest some of this helicity in the low levels. Yeah, the storms are already looking impressive, and they're still west of the better instability. SPC meso shows a nice bubble of 2000j/kg surface cape bulging northward from southwest Iowa. Effective SRH is much better on the east side of the Missouri as well. Should continue to see these storms blossom and organize over the next few hours. If I were chasing, I'd stay on the Iowa side and let the storms continue to organize and then pick out the best one. Shouldn't have to wait long with these storm speeds. Also, wouldn't want to get landlocked (again) by the damn Missouri River LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, the storms are already looking impressive, and they're still west of the better instability. SPC meso shows a nice bubble of 2000j/kg surface cape bulging northward from southwest Iowa. Effective SRH is much better on the east side of the Missouri as well. Should continue to see these storms blossom and organize over the next few hours. If I were chasing, I'd stay on the Iowa side and let the storms continue to organize and then pick out the best one. Shouldn't have to wait long with these storm speeds. Also, wouldn't want to get landlocked (again) by the damn Missouri River LOL. Tell me about it, awful trying to cross the river around there. Storm south of Omaha starting to look better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chi storm is currently in Corning, IA and going to wait and see what the stom WSW of Nebraska City does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Chi storm is currently in Corning, IA and going to wait and see what the stom WSW of Nebraska City does. It's continuing to look impressive. Will definitely have to keep an eye on the two immediately south of it though. They could rapidly intensify with little warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wonder what kind of a view they have at the WFO in Valley. Rotation just a couple hundred feet off the deck, not especially tight but a couplet nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Storm close to Sidney gaining rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Sitting north of Villisca, IA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Very nice looking storm that just rolled through the WFO at Valley. Great echo overhang, and trying to develop at BWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Very nice looking storm that just rolled through the WFO at Valley. Great echo overhang, and trying to develop at BWER. Dropped golf ball sized hail in Bennington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Blair, NE storm getting much more interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wonder what kind of a view they have at the WFO in Valley. Rotation just a couple hundred feet off the deck, not especially tight but a couplet nonetheless. Well they had some moderate sized hail come through at least 0416 PM HAIL VALLEY 41.31N 96.35W 03/22/2011 M1.50 INCH DOUGLAS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS GROUND ALMOST COMPLETELY COVERED WITH HAIL CLOSE TO PING PONG BALL SIZE. THE HAIL LASTED FOR AROUND 5 MINUTES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Couplet that got us our first TOR of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 One volume scan later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 first tor warning in NE...96kt gtg at 2500ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Tornado has been confirmed. 441 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON AND CENTRAL BURT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT... AT 441 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAIG...OR 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That storm really spun up nicely, very impressive rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I would like to point out how this tornado is occurring on the edge of the steep low level lapse rates. Not only is it in the vicinity of an instability boundary, but the low level environment is such that the updraft can readily stretch low level vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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