Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Bingo, in summary. Look at the NAM 500mb vorticity, 500mb height, and 700mb VV charts closely by 00z tomorrow in central IL... SPC WRF tries to fire something in that area. It's a risky setup but worth mentioning so there's not a wtf moment tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Cold core...major cold core action...not shocking with 55 Td N and NW of a 992mb sfc low with E winds at the sfc in the warm sector... Def, cold core is the place to be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looking at things a little more closely, this run of the NAM, unlike previous runs, does indicate a nonzero tornado threat south of the cold core (in E KS, MO, etc.), with nice low-lvl lapse rates and decent hodograph curvature. Td's of 60-61F might just do it for that area. The cap erodes rapidly between 21Z and 0Z and significant forcing swings across during the 0Z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looking at things a little more closely, this run of the NAM, unlike previous runs, does indicate a nonzero tornado threat south of the cold core (in E KS, MO, etc.), with nice low-lvl lapse rates and decent hodograph curvature. Td's of 60-61F might just do it for that area. The cap erodes rapidly between 21Z and 0Z and significant forcing swings across during the 0Z timeframe. as a low-topped sup produces tors in central lol due to class I get to play the "secondary" more conditional target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 as a low-topped sup produces tors in central lol due to class I get to play the "secondary" more conditional target. And a good target that is... good luck tomorrow on your chase. Hope you bag one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That cold-core looks prolific. It has a ton more instability than many cold-core events do. I would not be shocked to see something intense happen in NE/NW IA with that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 And a good target that is... good luck tomorrow on your chase. Hope you bag one. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Just had a pretty impressive hail storm. Pea size hail fell for about 5 minutes, and then a period of larger hail of over 3/4". Biggest hail I've seen since I've lived here (5 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That cold-core looks prolific. It has a ton more instability than many cold-core events do. I would not be shocked to see something intense happen in NE/NW IA with that at all. Great setup--very stout EML and a great height field config for deep low/mid level height falls as that embedded S/W trough at the base of the upper low progresses over the area. These tanking mid level lows always need to be watched for more significant potential. Looks interesting no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/KS ACROSS NRN AND WRN MO...IA...AND NRN IL... ..SYNOPSIS A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MO/MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NEB AND MOVE INTO WRN IA BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER AND INTO E CNTRL OK/NRN TX. SLY FLOW ACROSS A LARGELY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F AS FAR N AS IA AND CNTRL IL NEAR A WARM FRONT. FORCING WITH THE LOW AND HEATING ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER A RELATIVELY FOCUSED AREA. ..ERN NEB/KS INTO IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL ELEVATED/PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WITH HAIL WILL BE ONGOING FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN WHERE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIST N OF THE WARM FRONT AND BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. TO THE S...CAPPING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 21Z WHEN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP MIXING ERODE INHIBITION OVER ERN NEB. STRONG UVVS AND ADVECTION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO IA AND FAR NRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE FROM FAR ERN NEB ACROSS MUCH OF IA...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO FAR NRN MO. THIS AREA...BOUNDED BY THE DRYLINE TO THE W AND WARM FRONT TO THE N...WILL HAVE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. JUXTAPOSITION OF GREATEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER IA...PERHAPS EXTREME ERN NEB IF THE DRYLINE MOVES MORE SLOWLY. HOWEVER...FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT TEMPORAL WINDOW AVAILABLE FOR TORNADOES AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS THE WARM FRONT. WHILE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONG TORNADOES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY AND INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS REGARD. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS N OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN IA INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND LATE. FARTHER S...THE THREAT BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS ERN KS...WRN MO...AND FAR NERN OK...WHERE LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE POOR. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG...AND THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY THREAT IN THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS CAPPING QUICKLY OCCURS AFTER SUNSET...AND THE THREAT OF FURTHER SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THESE AREAS. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 3/4"-7/8" hail mixed in with pea size. Edit: Just noticed our temp dropped about 10 degrees too. Went from 53 down to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1236 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 130 AM CDT. * AT 1233 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR PROPHETSTOWN...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF MORRISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... TAMPICO AROUND 1245 AM CDT... DEER GROVE AROUND 1250 AM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Day 2 with 45% probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 3/4"-7/8" hail mixed in with pea size. Edit: Just noticed our temp dropped about 10 degrees too. Went from 53 down to 43. here is the culprit, it probably produce a bit bigger hail to your east as it shot up to 70dbz for a scan and then it got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 here is the culprit, it probably produce a bit bigger hail to your east as it shot up to 70dbz for a scan and then it got warned. Looks like an elevated sup. It was almost as if there were two hail cores that affected us. The first one only had pea sized hail, and it was solid white looking. That shut off almost completely, and then BAM, a wall of much larger hail hit. It was mainly clear, almost like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Im tempted to go out to western iowa now, even have the day off work still debating if its worth the gas money -anyone going out tuesday with a laptop setup? (i currently dont have one) just a cell phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Im tempted to go out to western iowa now, even have the day off work still debating if its worth the gas money -anyone going out tuesday with a laptop setup? (i currently dont have one) just a cell phone Tempting for me, But I'm going to pass. Reminds of the April 6th setup last year in eastern Iowa..limited surface based potential as they become elevated as they race across the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR ERN KS/NEB INTO IA...MO...AND NRN IL... ..ERN NEB/KS INTO IA...MO AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM/CO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD OVER KS/NEB TODAY AND REACH NRN MO/IA THIS EVENING...AS A LARGER SCALE MIDLEVEL LOW DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN/IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IN CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO IA...WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90-130 KT MID-UPPER JET MAX. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOCUSED ASCENT NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM EPISODE WILL BE THE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF BASIN AND PERSISTENT TRAJECTORIES FROM WITHIN THE RIDGE HAVE INHIBITED APPRECIABLE WARM SECTOR MOISTENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY TO BE REDUCED EACH AFTERNOON VIA MIXING INLAND FROM THE COAST. THUS...DEWPOINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO INCREASE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S ALREADY PRESENT. DESPITE THE MODEST MOISTURE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND N OF THE JET CORE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE TRIPLE POINT /WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE S/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 21Z NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INVOF THE KS/NEB BORDER AS THE CAP WEAKENS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD INTO IA DURING THE EVENING. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO ERN KS AND EXTREME NE OK. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2 PER S2/ AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE E OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE THIS EVENING. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WIDER ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS IA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE ANY DRYLINE STORMS FARTHER S SHOULD WEAKEN JUST AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES. ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 woke up to some nice booms this morning. Good luck to anyone chasing, pics please. Hoping to hear thunder a few more times this evening, maybe some hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looking at things a little more closely, this run of the NAM, unlike previous runs, does indicate a nonzero tornado threat south of the cold core (in E KS, MO, etc.), with nice low-lvl lapse rates and decent hodograph curvature. Td's of 60-61F might just do it for that area. The cap erodes rapidly between 21Z and 0Z and significant forcing swings across during the 0Z timeframe. I would think mid-upper 50s to low 60s dews would cut it for this time of the year. If it was May you would probably want at least mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I decided to head out to Iowa... Should be out between Stuart, IA and Omaha, NE before 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z RUC breaks out a nice looking isolated cell on the warm front south of Iowa City and at the nose of the H5 jet max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Tornado probability graphic off the 1300Z outlook. My partner, Connor McCrorey, will be out in NE KS if not a bit further north by this afternoon. We'll have our live streaming video from our roof camera up by this afternoon, so be sure to check it out when things get going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hello cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 For those of you concerned about the cloudiness clearing out. It is noted here that the clearing is starting to happen in Iowa. In particular, the southwest part of Iowa is starting to clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 New day 2 outlook maintains an area of 45% probs. If only the front was a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 don't see this everyday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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