on_wx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Why does the 15z SREF show 20% sigtor where the SPC has no severe threat outlined on the day 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Why does the 15z SREF show 20% sigtor where the SPC has no severe threat outlined on the day 1? they do have a svr threat outlined but south of the boundary looks to remained capped until after dark so the threat of tornadoes looks slim to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah I'd hate (or love) to see what they would've gone with if they thought the full potential would be realized. If the GOM surface ridging wasn't there this probably would've ended up a High Risk day 1 methinks. New Day 2 back to 30%, haha. (Probably after the forecaster saw the atrocious dewpoint forecasts progged by the 12Z NAM.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 they do have a svr threat outlined but south of the boundary looks to remained capped until after dark so the threat of tornadoes looks slim to none. Exactly, the sig. tornado ingredients is like any parameter, you need to know what goes into it. And while there is good CAPE and shear in that region, the cap isn't factored into the calculation at all. Hence, why the SPC is highlighting severe risks for elevated convection tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z NAM makes DSM area look interesting tomorrow...just asked off for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Confirmed TOR in CA FYI -- Spotters report a tornado on the ground near Maxwell CA (North central Colusa county and south central Glenn county) in Sacremento's forecast area... kinda neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Confirmed TOR in CA FYI%2 Yep. Perhaps an indication of some of the energy with this incoming system. If we had a good strong gulf flow things would really heat up tomorrow. As it is it may still be rather interesting. Adequate depth of moisture always seems to be the variable of concern with early spring systems. Tor formed with 500 CAPE in Sacramento valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 AT 315 PM PDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR MAXWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH TOWARDS DELEVAN AND ALONG INTERSTATE 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Pretty ugly looking 0-4km theta e lapse rates. Until I see those come up, it's going to be hard to get really excited about this event. Edit: By "this event" I mean tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Totally unscientific observation...It seems odd to me to be worried about capping now. I've read about thermonuclear caps during summer with tremendous amounts of CAPE and then nothing happens, but now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Totally unscientific observation...It seems odd to me to be worried about capping now. I've read about thermonuclear caps during summer with tremendous amounts of CAPE and then nothing happens, but now? It's all relative remember. Early season events don't need 700 mb to be +12C to be capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 FWIW...SPC MARS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Totally unscientific observation...It seems odd to me to be worried about capping now. I've read about thermonuclear caps during summer with tremendous amounts of CAPE and then nothing happens, but now? It may have something to do with the drought or the east coast troughiness this past winter. My hypothesis is that because the source region is drier, the EML is too, which increases the depth and strength of the layer. This, in conjunction with the drier-than-normal Plains, allows the EML to advect further eastward with less overturning or dampening. As for the troughiness, a colder ground and a colder GOM means air mass modification is slower, and often accompanied by lots of low-level clouds. This makes EML-associated inversions more difficult to overcome by low-level warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It may have something to do with the drought or the east coast troughiness this past winter. My hypothesis is that because the source region is drier, the EML is too, which increases the depth and strength of the layer. This, in conjunction with the drier-than-normal Plains, allows the EML to advect further eastward with less overturning or dampening. As for the troughiness, a colder ground and a colder GOM means air mass modification is slower, and often accompanied by lots of low-level clouds. This makes EML-associated inversions more difficult to overcome by low-level warm advection. Sounds reasonable. But boy, if that dry line trends farther east this svr season when quality gulf moisture does become available the Midwest is going to be in for quite an active couple of months if we get sustained troughiness in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Sounds reasonable. But boy, if that dry line trends farther east this svr season when quality gulf moisture does become available the Midwest is going to be in for quite an active couple of months if we get sustained troughiness in the west. Certainly a plausible possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 FWIW...SPC MARS... Hmm to 4/20/04 being a PWAT analog...just hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Pea Size Hail at RFD, already, must be columnar cooling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hmm to 4/20/04 being a PWAT analog...just hmm... I myself have thought about staying in IL tomorrow and playing the warm front, dew points pooling in the 60's. Sirvatka also mentioned the IL play looking at the 18z NAM in class tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 0z raob soundings from OAX and TOP north of the warm front and south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It may have something to do with the drought or the east coast troughiness this past winter. My hypothesis is that because the source region is drier, the EML is too, which increases the depth and strength of the layer. This, in conjunction with the drier-than-normal Plains, allows the EML to advect further eastward with less overturning or dampening. As for the troughiness, a colder ground and a colder GOM means air mass modification is slower, and often accompanied by lots of low-level clouds. This makes EML-associated inversions more difficult to overcome by low-level warm advection. I agree with all of these as being possibilities. From a more purely synoptic perspective, it seems like we've yet to get a good, deep wrn CONUS trough that would be associated with backed H85 flow over a large portion of the warm sector. The result has been SW to SSW winds at H85 with several setups, which always spells cap problems in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I myself have thought about staying in IL tomorrow and playing the warm front, dew points pooling in the 60's. Sirvatka also mentioned the IL play looking at the 18z NAM in class tonight. That's honestly the best play for tomorrow chasing...w/o a doubt... That or cold-core in W/NW IA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Sounds reasonable. But boy, if that dry line trends farther east this svr season when quality gulf moisture does become available the Midwest is going to be in for quite an active couple of months if we get sustained troughiness in the west. This is what I'm waiting for. If we can keep the Pacific wave train active over the next month or two, it's only a matter of time until these events produce...and possibly in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That's honestly the best play for tomorrow chasing...w/o a doubt... That or cold-core in W/NW IA... probably what were going to do..we have forecasting till 11 50am so would be on the road by noon. you have any more thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 probably what were going to do..we have forecasting till 11 50am so would be on the road by noon. you have any more thoughts? I have lots of thoughts. I also have dynamics homework to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I myself have thought about staying in IL tomorrow and playing the warm front, dew points pooling in the 60's. Sirvatka also mentioned the IL play looking at the 18z NAM in class tonight. I'd watch the area around the I-74 and I-72 corridors for some low topped supercell potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'd watch the area around the I-74 and I-72 corridors for some low topped supercell potential. Ya we'll most likely be jumping on I-55 heading that way around 12 30pm nice thunder here as these elevated storms roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'd watch the area around the I-74 and I-72 corridors for some low topped supercell potential. Bingo, in summary. Look at the NAM 500mb vorticity, 500mb height, and 700mb VV charts closely by 00z tomorrow in central IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Lol, 4km SPC WRF says hello ern NE, & string of (probably nontornadic) supercells further south... EDIT: Funny thing, I was thinking the 500mb pattern looks EXACTLY like 5/4/03, and the WRF shows a convective morphology almost exactly like, well... 5/4/03. Minus all the F3-F5 tornadoes, deaths, etc. of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 little fella in central IL at 22z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Lol, 4km SPC WRF says hello ern NE, & string of (probably nontornadic) supercells further south... Cold core...major cold core action...not shocking with 55 Td N and NW of a 992mb sfc low with E winds at the sfc in the warm sector... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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