brettjrob Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 Well, almost everything is starting to scream "move along!" with this system, but the 00z ECMWF last night looked oddly encouraging given other trends. It had a very well-timed shortwave for Sunday, and then ejected the main energy fairly far south on Monday. The GFS, OTOH, is absolutely abysmal. The two have almost swapped places from a few days ago, with the GFS now stalling the trough on the W Coast for several days before shearing it out. The GGEM has been in the stall/shear out camp all along, and continues to show that this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 16, 2011 Author Share Posted March 16, 2011 Notice the cape nosing in there nicely across N Central OK and S Central KS at 7 pm cdt Sunday evening. Not much of a cap either for Sunday evening. Notice the winds here at 500 mb. Over 90 knots in the Texas Panhandle with 70-80 knot winds nosing into N Central OK an S Central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 17, 2011 Share Posted March 17, 2011 0z GFS trended better with regards to moisture both days, bringing 55 dews up to just east of AMA saturday with low 60's over central OK and a CAPE max of just short of 1500 j/kg in the eastern TX PH and breaks the cap near AMA saturday evening. sunday its showing southern KS/northern OK the place to be with low 60 dew points and >1500 j/kg with backed sfc and sufficient shear for supercells but a stronger cap this day. and the NAM isn't showing this...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 17, 2011 Author Share Posted March 17, 2011 The cape is looking good for south central KS and north central OK for Sunday. However, the cap could be an issue. That could prevent storms from developing Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 SPC is in 'meh' mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Another classical, beautiful trough wasted. Maybe in May.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 last few runs of the NAM have been showing potential in IA on sunday with a nice looking wind profile along the warm front but some capping issues. keeping that window open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 last few runs of the NAM have been showing potential in IA on sunday with a nice looking wind profile along the warm front but some capping issues. keeping that window open. Sorry, I happen to hate Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Nice wind profiles and hodo's in SE. Iowa and W. Illinois on Sunday evening...The cap is also weaker. The issue is lower dp's and less sb cape over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 increased quite a bit from the 12z NAM...was under 3 then and ove 5 with the 0z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Burlington, IA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 My interest in tomorrow has increased after seeing the activity this afternoon and what impacts it might have on tomorrow. The elevated, outflowy crap today laid down a network of outflow boundries that should come into play tomorrow, helping convection initiate and helping it after that. The 4 KM WRF looks mighty interesting by tomorrow evening as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 From the DVN AFD earlier today... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS IMPLY THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SURFACE BASED DISCRETE CELLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 From the DVN AFD earlier today... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS IMPLY THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SURFACE BASED DISCRETE CELLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. Hmm I didn't see that. I'm not sold on this yet, there is quite the inversion looking at fcst soundings and the best juice in further south and west where the sfc winds become veered. It would be ice to see some better instability further east along the warm front where the wind profiles are very favorable for supercells and tornadoes but the cap is saying no go right now so we'll see what happens as we get closer. showers/storms look to move through southern IA during the morning and early aftenoon hours so hopefully that will clear earlier and help sfc heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 SPC still going with a see text due to capping issues.. the key is going to be if we can get more sfc heating than forecasted. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST ..SYNOPSIS THE REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIKELY REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY...ARE PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPRESS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STRONG FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY TO BUILD QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...AS A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY TURNS INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT LOWER LEVELS...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MODEST SURFACE WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...INFLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN INHIBITED BY RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTER SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDORS ALONG REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS ALONG A DRY LINE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL WAVE...FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED BY CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND GENERALLY SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE RETREATING FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY... THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY MIXED LAYER CAPE PROBABLY WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING NEAR THE DRY LINE...LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER IOWA AS WELL. BEFORE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGINS TO RISE...LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED ALONG A 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...BENEATH 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL FORM WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER...OR IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ABOVE A RAIN-COOLED AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING MAXIMIZES AND LOCALLY WEAKENS INHIBITION. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG STORMS WILL SURVIVE AS THEY PROPAGATE EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 03/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 pretty big change in the 12z NAM regarding sfc temps south of the warm front in IA/MO at 21z tomorrow. The new run has increased temps by 10 degrees or south to the low 70's where the 0z run only had temps in the upper 50's/low 60's. It also has a much weaker cap and breaks it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Where is Hoosier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Oh wow. Those are some pretty impressive changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Two pockets of higher potential showing up on the SREF now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Where is Hoosier? present I haven't really looked at this setup but that map you posted is gonna force me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12z NAM...Ottumwa, IA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Where is Hoosier? Okay, the main problem I'm seeing here is the lack of lift in that timeframe and that is reflected in model qpf showing pretty much all of the precip farther north. If we could actually get something to pop in that favorable environment, then it could be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Okay, the main problem I'm seeing here is the lack of lift in that timeframe and that is reflected in model qpf showing pretty much all of the precip farther north. If we could actually get something to pop in that favorable environment, then it could be something to watch. Ya all the precip at 0z is north of the warm front and elevated. waiting for the new day 2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF SRN IA/NRN MO...FAR NERN KS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL IL... ..SYNOPSIS CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COASTS OF BC TO NRN BAJA BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BE BROKEN DOWN DURING DAY 2 AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TO THIS TROUGH SHOULD OCCLUDE AS IT TRACKS FROM ND INTO NRN MN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN ENEWD INTO LOWER MI DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER EARLY DAY 2 SUPPORTED BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION LOCATED N OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN WAA REGIME IN THE NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE ENEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. ..PARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO/FAR NERN KS TO FAR WRN IL MODELS DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS IA AS THE NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. HOWEVER...EVEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL IA BY 21/00Z AND SWWD ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO NERN KS SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/ BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY OVER SWRN IA/FAR NERN KS AND ADVANCING EWD. ADDITIONAL THREAT IS POSSIBLE ALONG SWWD TRAILING DRY LINE...THOUGH WEAKER FORCING DOES NOT WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 15z SREF bumped it up a notch for southeast Iowa tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm liking the chances for elevated strong to severe convection tomorrow morning across Illinois and Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Wrong thread lol Decent looking storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Wrong thread lol Decent looking storm though It would help if that thread title wasn't so vague... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 It would help if that thread title wasn't so vague... Very true - I was thinking the same thing earlier. Should have just kept today's severe weather threat in here, no reason for it to have it's own thread, but oh well - to late now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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