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March 20-23 Severe Threat


Jim Martin

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Looking ahead to Thursday... we'll watch a beautiful low-amplitude but potent shortwave trough go to waste over the Southern Plains because of the surface ridge building down from the Great Lakes. The good juice never even gets pushed past the Gulf Coast with this current cold front, yet it won't be able to return at all into NW TX by Thursday afternoon.

This perpetual eastern troughing thing is getting old real fast.

You sounds like a meteorologist (I know you are a grad student) :)

We only remember the wasted events even when climo and stats say otherwise. I just had this disco with friends tonite--friends in ND who saw a massive winter storm bust in Grand Forks.

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I think you have gravity wave features going on north of the warm front, with a more traditional gust front to the south. Interestingly enough, both produced severe winds. North of the white line (warm front) you can see the waves of enhanced winds, and relative lulls.

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I think you have gravity wave features going on north of the warm front, with a more traditional gust front to the south. Interestingly enough, both produced severe winds. North of the white line (warm front) you can see the waves of enhanced winds, and relative lulls.

That's a very interesting image. There doesn't seem to be any gravity wave feature south of the warm front. It definitely makes sense though. Normally with a marginally intense squall line like this in the cold sector you wouldn't see winds at the surface. To receive strong winds at the surface in a strong inversion type setup must require a gravity wave evolution like this. The waves on the radar make it look like there would be several bursts of stronger winds with a feature like that, but here at ground level the winds stayed very gusty for at least 10 minutes with no letup.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN KY...CNTRL AND SRN

OH...MUCH OF WV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY

INTO THE DELMARVA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO

THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THUR...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND

HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE

IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM IL INTO OH/WV BY 00Z...ALONG AND JUST S OF

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL STRETCH EWD FROM NRN IND INTO NRN OH

AND WRN PA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL

PUSH SEWD ACROSS IND/NWRN OH...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS

WRN KY/TN.

BROAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO BRING AT LEAST

MID 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY

AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT

WILL RESULT IN ABNORMALLY STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PROFILES

OVER THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE

WEATHER EVENT TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...OH VALLEY EWD INTO VA...

EARLY WED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM IND INTO

OH...AND EXTENDING SWD ACROSS KY AND TN IN A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL

WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. SOME

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND

OH WHERE LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED

HAIL. THIS INITIAL AREA OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD...ALLOWING

FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION TO THE W. BY MID

AFTERNOON...A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND NEWD

ACROSS IL INTO IND...AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD INTO OH/KY/WRN

TN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE INITIATE FROM THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT

INTERSECTION NEAR THE IND/OH BORDER SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN

KY/TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING

DESPITE WHAT WOULD BE AN OTHERWISE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT GIVEN 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -20

C OR COLDER OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER

SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL

BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...IN

COMBINATION WITH VERY COOL PROFILES ALOFT...SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL

BE LIKELY...SOME SPLITTING...CAPABLE OF PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WITH LARGE AMOUNTS

OF HAIL. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND COLD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL ALSO

FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE

TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGLY

ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE LOW LEVEL CAPE.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE WITH THE LOSS OF

HEATING BUT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA

WITH ELEVATED HAIL POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/23/2011

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I was a little surprised to see a hatched hail area but then again I hadn't really looked at it too much. I can see why they went that route given the steep lapse rates/dry air aloft and relatively low freezing levels.

day1.hail.gif

Yeah if only that entire area wasn't a nightmare to chase in with limited vis/trees/bad road network.

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Yeah if only that entire area wasn't a nightmare to chase in with limited vis/trees/bad road network.

One could probably find some good spots but maybe few and far between. Someone should start a thread about areas outside of the Plains that are good for chasing.

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One could probably find some good spots but maybe few and far between. Someone should start a thread about areas outside of the Plains that are good for chasing.

Anywhere East of 131 and south of US 10 in MI, except for in cities. Of course I suppose you could lump us in with the plains.

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I was a little surprised to see a hatched hail area but then again I hadn't really looked at it too much. I can see why they went that route given the steep lapse rates/dry air aloft and relatively low freezing levels.

day1.hail.gif

Getting close to the limits of the MA subforum. I wonder if they'll notice.

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While it looks like Southern Ohio will be prime for hail, I think the tornado potential will be the highest across Central Ohio closer to the warm front. It will be interesting to see how things develop. 68 degrees here with full sunshine.

New SPC Meso:

areas affected...cntrl-ern ky...ern ind...oh...wv

concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely

valid 231602z - 231730z

a severe threat will likely develop across ern ind...cntrl-ern ky...oh and wv this afternoon. large hail...wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will be likely as storms initiate and expand quickly in coverage. a tornado watch should be necessary over the 1 to 2 hours...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

148 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

EAST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE...AND MOVING

EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

ADAMS AROUND 155 PM EDT...

SANDUSKY AND MILROY AROUND 200 PM EDT...

CLARKSBURG AROUND 210 PM EDT...

LAKE SANTEE AROUND 215 PM EDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 131.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO

NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO

SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREDERICKTOWN...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MOUNT VERNON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

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327

WWUS20 KWNS 231946

SEL6

SPC WW 231946

NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-240200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

EASTERN TENNESSEE

SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL

1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROANOKE

VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...

DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO

STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

FROM EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHWEST VA/WESTERN NC. SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WILL

BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST

AS WELL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.

...GUYER

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