baroclinic_instability Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Looking ahead to Thursday... we'll watch a beautiful low-amplitude but potent shortwave trough go to waste over the Southern Plains because of the surface ridge building down from the Great Lakes. The good juice never even gets pushed past the Gulf Coast with this current cold front, yet it won't be able to return at all into NW TX by Thursday afternoon. This perpetual eastern troughing thing is getting old real fast. You sounds like a meteorologist (I know you are a grad student) We only remember the wasted events even when climo and stats say otherwise. I just had this disco with friends tonite--friends in ND who saw a massive winter storm bust in Grand Forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think you have gravity wave features going on north of the warm front, with a more traditional gust front to the south. Interestingly enough, both produced severe winds. North of the white line (warm front) you can see the waves of enhanced winds, and relative lulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I think you have gravity wave features going on north of the warm front, with a more traditional gust front to the south. Interestingly enough, both produced severe winds. North of the white line (warm front) you can see the waves of enhanced winds, and relative lulls. That's a very interesting image. There doesn't seem to be any gravity wave feature south of the warm front. It definitely makes sense though. Normally with a marginally intense squall line like this in the cold sector you wouldn't see winds at the surface. To receive strong winds at the surface in a strong inversion type setup must require a gravity wave evolution like this. The waves on the radar make it look like there would be several bursts of stronger winds with a feature like that, but here at ground level the winds stayed very gusty for at least 10 minutes with no letup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN KY...CNTRL AND SRN OH...MUCH OF WV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THUR...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM IL INTO OH/WV BY 00Z...ALONG AND JUST S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL STRETCH EWD FROM NRN IND INTO NRN OH AND WRN PA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS IND/NWRN OH...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN KY/TN. BROAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO BRING AT LEAST MID 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABNORMALLY STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PROFILES OVER THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...OH VALLEY EWD INTO VA... EARLY WED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM IND INTO OH...AND EXTENDING SWD ACROSS KY AND TN IN A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND OH WHERE LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED HAIL. THIS INITIAL AREA OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD...ALLOWING FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION TO THE W. BY MID AFTERNOON...A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND NEWD ACROSS IL INTO IND...AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD INTO OH/KY/WRN TN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE INITIATE FROM THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR THE IND/OH BORDER SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN KY/TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DESPITE WHAT WOULD BE AN OTHERWISE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT GIVEN 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -20 C OR COLDER OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...IN COMBINATION WITH VERY COOL PROFILES ALOFT...SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...SOME SPLITTING...CAPABLE OF PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAIL. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND COLD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL ALSO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE LOW LEVEL CAPE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA WITH ELEVATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I was a little surprised to see a hatched hail area but then again I hadn't really looked at it too much. I can see why they went that route given the steep lapse rates/dry air aloft and relatively low freezing levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I was a little surprised to see a hatched hail area but then again I hadn't really looked at it too much. I can see why they went that route given the steep lapse rates/dry air aloft and relatively low freezing levels. Yeah if only that entire area wasn't a nightmare to chase in with limited vis/trees/bad road network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah if only that entire area wasn't a nightmare to chase in with limited vis/trees/bad road network. One could probably find some good spots but maybe few and far between. Someone should start a thread about areas outside of the Plains that are good for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 One could probably find some good spots but maybe few and far between. Someone should start a thread about areas outside of the Plains that are good for chasing. Anywhere East of 131 and south of US 10 in MI, except for in cities. Of course I suppose you could lump us in with the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I was a little surprised to see a hatched hail area but then again I hadn't really looked at it too much. I can see why they went that route given the steep lapse rates/dry air aloft and relatively low freezing levels. Getting close to the limits of the MA subforum. I wonder if they'll notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Getting close to the limits of the MA subforum. I wonder if they'll notice. Yes we did, and I like Morgantown, WV SE Ohio could see some interesting cells pop up in the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm heading out towards St. Paris-Urbana shortly. Hoping to snap some nice photos this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 While it looks like Southern Ohio will be prime for hail, I think the tornado potential will be the highest across Central Ohio closer to the warm front. It will be interesting to see how things develop. 68 degrees here with full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 While it looks like Southern Ohio will be prime for hail, I think the tornado potential will be the highest across Central Ohio closer to the warm front. It will be interesting to see how things develop. 68 degrees here with full sunshine. New SPC Meso: areas affected...cntrl-ern ky...ern ind...oh...wv concerning...severe potential...tornado watch likely valid 231602z - 231730z a severe threat will likely develop across ern ind...cntrl-ern ky...oh and wv this afternoon. large hail...wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will be likely as storms initiate and expand quickly in coverage. a tornado watch should be necessary over the 1 to 2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Not a good day for Indianapolis (KIND) and Lincoln (KILX) NWS radars to be down. Hopefully they are back up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Not a good day for Indianapolis (KIND) and Lincoln (KILX) NWS radars to be down. Hopefully they are back up soon. It really is the worst time for it. Storms really blowing up in Ft. Wayne. 0.75 inch hail being reported in Whitley County. PS. Love your signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 getting CI near Batavia....Ohio lol and already a nice tilt to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'm heading out towards St. Paris-Urbana shortly. Hoping to snap some nice photos this afternoon. Being mby I hope you get some good shots. Unfortunately I have to head to work right as all of this looks to initiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 148 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... EAST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ADAMS AROUND 155 PM EDT... SANDUSKY AND MILROY AROUND 200 PM EDT... CLARKSBURG AROUND 210 PM EDT... LAKE SANTEE AROUND 215 PM EDT... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 131. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Texas sized tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I'll have some pics/video up later from my chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I am out here in no mans land east of Wilmington. Just had a doosy of storm move through. I can't belive I forgot the flip video camera today. I did get a couple pics but we had one hell of a hail storm here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Cell south of Mansfield, OH has a really nice hook on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO * UNTIL 330 PM EDT * AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREDERICKTOWN...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There is another storm in Butler County that looks very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 327 WWUS20 KWNS 231946 SEL6 SPC WW 231946 NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-240200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROANOKE VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55... DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHWEST VA/WESTERN NC. SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040. ...GUYER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 A bit out of our reach but it sounds like western PA near Greensburg took a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here is some storm damage survey information from the tornado (EF2) that occurred northwest of Winterset, IA (the one I detailed with the RFD interaction a couple pages back). Iowa Helicopter did a fly over and got some very nice photos. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cases/110322/iowa_helicopter_survey/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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