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March 20-23 Severe Threat


Jim Martin

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Still like the environment for that cell that moved through Valley. Wouldn't be shocked to see that start to tighten up.

Thank you OAX...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
453 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
 HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 450 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
 NEAR MISSOURI VALLEY...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF OMAHA. A TORNADO MAY
 DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM
 MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

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brief wall cloud wnw of me.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

502 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 500 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF STANTON...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF

CLARINDA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

GREENFIELD...CARBON...CUMBERLAND...MASSENA...WIOTA...BRIDGEWATER...

ANITA...FONTANELLE AND ORIENT.

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120 kts G2G.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN HARRISON COUNTY

UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 514 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 2 TO 3

MILES EAST OF LOGAN...OR 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF OMAHA...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PERSIA.

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The number of confirmed tornado reports so far serves to remind me that an outbreak can occur with dews in the 50's. Score one for upper air support for this system.

On March 13, 1990 there was an F4 tornado in Nebraska that was on the ground for 131 miles. Temps were only around 67-69F and dews of 56-58F.

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Storms seem to be winding down a bit as they move away from the better instability, doesn't shock me, temps maxed out at 47(40 now) here today and dew point is a mere 39 here atm.

They still look pretty good to me. The Des Moines area looks like they'll be getting in on the fun here in an hour or so. The warm front is in the southern edge of the city now, and making a move back north.

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They still look pretty good to me. The Des Moines area looks like they'll be getting in on the fun here in an hour or so. The warm front is in the southern edge of the city now, and making a move back north.

Ya, starting to get real concerned for Des Moines metro south to Osceola in the next hr. with new storms forming to the sw.

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They still look pretty good to me. The Des Moines area looks like they'll be getting in on the fun here in an hour or so. The warm front is in the southern edge of the city now, and making a move back north.

I'm contemplating going out as they get closer depending on how the next hour pans out (live in Ankeny). Would love to see it hold together at least as a last hurrah before the much colder weather comes back in.

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I'm contemplating going out as they get closer depending on how the next hour pans out (live in Ankeny). Would love to see it hold together at least as a last hurrah before the much colder weather comes back in.

You're north of the warm front there, so I'd head a little south and play the warm front near or just a bit south of Des Moines.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0533 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA...ERN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...

VALID 222233Z - 222330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.

GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS

SWRN-SCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO

DEVELOP FARTHER SW ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO POSING A THREAT FOR

LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE NEB/IA BORDER NEAR OMAHA. A

DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NEB INTO ERN KS...WITH

A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO NCNTRL IL. A PACIFIC

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FARTHER W FROM SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL AND SWRN

KS...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE.

UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS QUITE NARROW WITH ZONE OF 1000-1500 J/KG

MLCAPE FROM ERN KS...WRN MO AND SWRN IA. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE

OCCURRING EAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SWRN IA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPER

ASCENT WITHIN EJECTING UPPER JET EXIT REGION. GREATEST TORNADO

THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SWRN-SCNTRL IA NEXT COUPLE HOURS

AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH

WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED. STORMS

WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOL

SECTOR...BUT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

STORMS COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH ERN KS

AND WRN MO WHERE DEEPER FORCING IS MORE LIMITED AND CAP WILL LIKELY

REMAIN STRONGER.

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