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Reactor meltdown possible in Japan.


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A worst case scenario here would be far, far worse than any dirty bomb, but the principles are similar. Another risk is the molten radioactive sludge seeps into the ground and contaminates the water table for decades.

Can this be stopped, just picturing the extensive damage and compounding failures I am doubting it. My mechanical brain says there is always hope but my heart is saying no.

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From NHK:

TEPCO releases photo of No.4 reactor

Tokyo Electric Power Company has released a photograph of the No.4 reactor building at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant where fires were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday.

It shows that a large portion of the building's outer wall has collapsed.

The company produced the photo at a news conference on Wednesday.

The photo, shot the day before from the northwestern side of the reactor, shows that a large portion of the building's outer wall has collapsed. There is an 8-meter hole on the 4th floor, and the interior is visible.

Another 8-meter square hole was also confirmed on the outer wall of the building. Both appeared after an explosion early on Tuesday.

An ensuing fire near the 4th floor reportedly later went out on its own.

Flames were also found spewing from the building early Wednesday, but the utility company said they were no longer visible half-an-hour later.

16_25_v_s.jpg

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Just got home. Looks like this thread has seen a lot of posts since I left at 4pm.

Does anyone know if there is truth to the stories that reactor no 3 burns MOX fuel that contains a mix of plutonium and uranium?

Forecast winds look to be offshore for the short term. That would be good news for the population centers.

I don't have a link but it's been confirmed numerous times that #3 burns MOX fuel, 6% to be precise.

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For you guys that are curious about what amounts of radiation the Chernobyl disaster got around the world to the US, the EPA has a write-up about the incident as well as some illustrations of monthly levels for the US in the several months immediately following the disaster part-way down the page. Found at this link here: http://www.epa.gov/r.../chernobyl.html

So yes elevated radiation levels made it from the Chernobyl plants and came across the U.S but at really low levels. Those units in the illustrations are in pCi/m^3. Which I believe is pico-curie per cubic meter. Pico is 10^-12, or 0.000000000001. Thats the old standard in calculating radioactivity so not exactly sure how they tie into sieverts(micro, milli). But we're talking a very small number.

Not sure what the unit of measure is here but interesting nevertheless:

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"FUKUSHIMA, Japan – Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility.Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said work on dousing reactors with water was disrupted by the need to withdraw.

The level of radiation at the plant surged to 1,000 millisieverts early Wednesday before coming down to 800-600 millisieverts. Still, that was far more than the average

"So the workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said. "Because of the radiation risk, we are on standby."

Experts say exposure of around 1,000 millisieverts is enough to cause radiation sickness."

http://news.yahoo.co...apan_earthquake

So what I mentioned and hour or so ago was correct, they DID measure 1sv

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Not only insult to injury...the tsunami/earthquake could end up being the least of their problems.

Well, if it does end up being true that the plant is being abandoned (and we have conflicting reports on this)....but, then yes....three core meltdowns and the environmental release through fire of spent fuel outside of another two reactors (uncontained).

It's pretty clear from looking at the airports that nearly everyone is trying to get off the island.

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"FUKUSHIMA, Japan – Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility.Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said work on dousing reactors with water was disrupted by the need to withdraw.

The level of radiation at the plant surged to 1,000 millisieverts early Wednesday before coming down to 800-600 millisieverts. Still, that was far more than the average

"So the workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said. "Because of the radiation risk, we are on standby."

Experts say exposure of around 1,000 millisieverts is enough to cause radiation sickness."

http://news.yahoo.co...apan_earthquake

So what I mentioned and hour or so ago was correct, they DID measure 1sv

I really think that was a misspeak...it was corrected on NHK.

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I really think that was a misspeak...it was corrected on NHK.

Kyodo...and others:

"The radiation level at the quake-hit Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant reached 10 millisievert per hour at one point Wednesday morning, possibly due to the damage at its No.2 reactor the day before, the government's nuclear safety agency said.The maximum level was measured at the plant's front gate at 10:40 a.m. It fell to 6.4 millisievert at 10:45 a.m. and to 2.3 millisievert at 10:54 a.m. but rose again to about 3.4 millisievert as of 11:00 a.m., the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said."

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I still don't understand what this means, though. Like, what's the end game? A large portion of Honshu is uninhabitable? Tokyo becomes a ghost town? Like, what scale of implications are we talking here?

Worst case is there is a large exclusion zone around the reactor that is off-limits. Same case as around Chernobyl. That zone could be quite large if we have a total meltdown and contamination of the water table (which would be pretty shallow so near the coast).

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I still don't understand what this means, though. Like, what's the end game? A large portion of Honshu is uninhabitable? Tokyo becomes a ghost town? Like, what scale of implications are we talking here?

If Japan gives up all hope in the worst case scenario and the reactors actually do meltdown, northern winds could potentially force an evacuation of Tokyo.

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I don't have a link but it's been confirmed numerous times that #3 burns MOX fuel, 6% to be precise.

Oh' OK. That's a small percentage. Still not great because there is plutonium involved but less than I feared. The reality is you would be in trouble with even a single particle of plutonium dust in your lungs.

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I really have no idea what they think our military can do...then again I'm sure there's tons of people at the pentagon who sit around and come up with crazy contingency plans for all types of nuclear events so they may actually have one.

They can provide equipment, fly helicopter missions, help with mass evacuations, and provide overall command and control. We have to remember Japan is still cleaning up from the quake/tsunami and trying to handle thousands of dead and many more wounded/homeless.

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Worst case is there is a large exclusion zone around the reactor that is off-limits. Same case as around Chernobyl. That zone could be quite large if we have a total meltdown and contamination of the water table (which would be pretty shallow so near the coast).

Contamination of the water table and nearby ocean are probably the biggest threats right now. You don't want nuclear waste washing up on the beaches...

Of course if it ever gets that bad we'll probably see Drudge talk about nuclear tsunamis and nuclear typhoons later on. That'll be interesting for sure.

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