OHSnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Snowing at Cuyahoga Falls... visibility down to one mile (vertical visibility 200 feet). Still 36 degrees though. METAR KCGF 102145Z 29012KT 1SM -SN VV002 02/ A2980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Here comes the deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 21z RUC has shifter back east...at least for SEMI it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 21z RUC has shifter back east...at least for SEMI it has Still pretty good here...I'm riding it's 4" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Still pretty good here...I'm riding it's 4" line The run actually ended pretty strongly and finished similar to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The stuff in Ohio looks to be moving due north, I'm a little confused with this system.. And it looks like an upper level low spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The stuff in Ohio looks to be moving due north, I'm a little confused with this system.. Makes two of us. Looks like the snow is breaking out further west but i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=iln&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Quickly spreading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Can someone please run Bufkit for YXU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Can someone please run Bufkit for YXU? which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 which model? Sorry, GFS preferably - I get the impression NAM can be overstated... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Sorry, GFS preferably - I get the impression NAM can be overstated... Thanks. That's international, dont think you can get that information.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Precipitation continues to slowly fill in over portions of eastern MI and much of lower OH into parts of KY, WV, VA, and PA as colder air filters in to the west. The precipitation over southern OH into KY and WV appears to be associated with developing lift as the trough continues to deepen and attempt to close off, while the rain farther east is associated with an intense stream of mid level moisture and lift from a mid level jet streak being aided by decent low-mid level frontogenesis: Note how upper level divergence (noted by purple) is expanding over much of the eastern 2/3rds of OH into eastern KY and WV as the trough deepens, while there is intense low level lift a little farther east associated with some moderate to heavy rain where the lower level low is currently sitting. By 6z, the RUC and NAM both agree on the trough closing off at 500mb and deepening several decameters from where it currently is now as of 21z. This will help capture the lower and middle level lows and pull them west towards eastern lake Erie. Note how the 21z RUC is showing the 850mb low just slightly to the northeast of the closed off 500mb low as the system occludes. This will cause the area of lower-mid level frontogenesis shifting west slightly overnight tonight as the low to mid level lows move essentially due north and occlude. This will cause an area of deformation under the upper level lift which will result in moderate to heavy snow rates where this occurs. This is illustrated by warmer mid level air being wrapped around to the western side of the low, which will create low level lift under upper level divergence. As for where this best area of lift and heavy snow will set up, it appears the warmer mid level air and lift will wrap into central MI, so we should see a deform set up from there points east. Central OH will see the batch of snow with the upper trough slowly move through this evening into tonight, with amounts of likely 1-4” depending on how soon the rain changes over in any one spot. The best lift will set up north of central OH though, closer to Lake Erie, where it will park for several hours late tonight through Friday morning as the system almost stalls over eastern Lake Erie. Several hours of moderate, fairly low ratio snow over eastern MI will deposit up to a half foot or so near the boarder with Canada, with a quick drop off farther west. Over OH, will add a general 1-3” snow; however as you approach the lake shore counties from Sandusky points east, there will be several hours, potentially 12-15 hours under the heaviest band. Snow rates will likely be ½-1” per hour under the heaviest band, which makes totals of 6-12” likely in those areas. There will be a quick drop off to the south and west of there, note how colder and more stable air works in once you get outside of northeast OH, and how there is little mid level frontogenesis/lift in that area on the maps above from the 21z RUC. The lake may increase the low level moisture some, however the lake is hovering just a touch above freezing. 850mb temps will generally be above -8 for the duration of the event meaning there won’t be any lake induced instability. I simply think the placement of the heaviest snow near the lake shore will be a product of the low sitting over eastern Lake Erie placing the best lift over the lake and over the lake shore counties. Snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's international, dont think you can get that information.. lol, of course you can. I run BUFKIT for YYZ all the time. Give me a second Alan. I'll do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That's international, dont think you can get that information.. It's the airport code for London, Ont. Maybe CYXU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Let the hype begin. One of the local TV stations here opened up with the foot+ montage. Basically going for a widespread 14" for most of Greater Cleveland. Latest BUF WRF continues the ridiculously high QPF totals here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 lol, of course you can. I run BUFKIT for YYZ all the time. Give me a second Alan. I'll do it. YXU - 18z GFS Total QPF: 1.00" on the nose Plain rain through 0z: 0.14" ZR from 0z to 6z: 0.23" (although with the wet ground, some of that will have the effect of just plain rain) SN from 6z to 0z/12: 0.62" which translates to 5-8" based on the technique you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Let the hype begin. One of the local TV stations here opened up with the foot+ montage. Basically going for a widespread 14" for most of Greater Cleveland. Latest BUF WRF continues the ridiculously high QPF totals here: lol - the 1.55 bulls-eye in Ont. is right over my house. How much is snow is the 64K question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 YXU - 18z GFS Total QPF: 1.00" on the nose Plain rain through 0z: 0.14" ZR from 0z to 6z: 0.23" (although with the wet ground, some of that will have the effect of just plain rain) SN from 6z to 0z/12: 0.62" which translates to 5-8" based on the technique you use. Thanks MIke. My timing stinks - if I had only hit refresh before my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Looks like we will get a grazing of a few inches. Considering we had no snow in the forecast 2 days ago, its a very narrow snowstorm, and the great winter weve had...will be no complaints from me. Maybe a little jealousy of the bullseye, but certainly no complaints! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Looks like we will get a grazing of a few inches. Considering we had no snow in the forecast 2 days ago, its a very narrow snowstorm, and the great winter weve had...will be no complaints from me. Maybe a little jealousy of the bullseye, but certainly no complaints! Looks to me like the precip is a bit further west than modeled so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 If you guys think you are so good at forecasting, then go and run the DTX office. Seriously, you guys complain day the past few days. You try and forecast for the SE MI area. Some of you would have had watches up yesterday, when now, it looks like barley advisory snows at best. Theres so much irony in this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Thanks MIke. My timing stinks - if I had only hit refresh before my last post. I noticed you're already down to freezing at the airport. GFS doesn't have that occurring for another couple of hours. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Looks to me like the precip is a bit further west than modeled so far. lets hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Theres so much irony in this post There is always irony with $bags. ...So it's no longer surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Am seeing a quick moderate burst here with large wet flakes. Visibility probably near a mile, ground quickly turning white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 All snow at Youngstown now. Visibility down to 1.5 miles. SPECI KYNG 110027Z 28008KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC003 01/01 A2973 RMK AO2 RAE18SNB2354 CIG 002V009 P0004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 I'm surprised it's snowing all the way to the PA line already. It didn't look like it would change over until 10 PM at the earliest. There's still a pretty good stream of moisture coming from the south... some areas may see an inch or two even before the deformation band sets up and streams in from the northwest. Edit: The NWS didn't time the changeover until midnight. Tonight: Rain before midnight, then snow. Low around 27. West wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Literally raining snow here - amazing actually (Indiana/Ohio line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Still plain rain here. No sign of a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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