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March 9th-10th Storm Part 2


wisconsinwx

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GRR

SHORT TERM...(1156 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011)

(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)

I DID A LATE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE TO CONFINE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS BASED ON

THE AXIS OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS WHICH TYPICALLY IS THE WESTERN

LIMIT TO HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION CAN GET. THE TROUGH AXIS IS

JUST EAST OF US-131 BY 18Z AND BY 00Z THE NEW 700 MB HAS DEVELOPED

OVER CENTRAL OHIO. SO ONLY FLURRIES IF THAT WEST OF US-131 THIS

AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO EVEN OVER THE EASTERN

CWA... IT WILL BE HARD TO ACCUMULATE TO MUCH UNLESS A BAND STALLS

OVER ONE AREA FOR MORE THAN A HOUR. SINCE THERE IS MOISTURE

STREAMING NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (AS SEEN ON THE

IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS) OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF LOWER MICHIGAN AT

16Z...IT MAY WELL BE I AM UNDERPLAYING THE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN

CWA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

THE OTHER BIG ISSUE.... HOW FAR WEST DOES THE SNOW GET TONIGHT WITH

THAT SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER WRN NC AS I WRITE THIS (16Z) THAT

MOVES NEARLY DUE NORTH INTO WRN PA BY 00Z ON THE 15Z RUC. WHICH BY

THE WAY IS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK. LAST NIGHT OVER 1/2 OF

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAD SNOW AS FAR WEST AS GRR TONIGHT! THE

CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT BRUSHING EASTERN JACKSON AND INGHAM COUNTIES

BUT I WOULD SEE THIS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST THAN THAT. WE

WILL BE WATCHING THAT TOO.

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Does the euro continue the trend west and increase precip amounts? I hope so. A little off topic but wow at the potential flooding in the northeast. Some areas just got 2 feet of snow and now they have heavy rain. Further east into the mass/CT, they had 2 feet on the ground and its been pouring there the last few weeks. Cant forget about all the snow on the ground in the upper midwest and the flooding that awaits them when warmer air and systems move north. As far as my location is concerned, with the crazy cold we had this winter, it's going to take longer for the ground to unfreeze and longer for the golf courses to dry out!

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