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March 9-10 Rainy Obs Thread


jonjon

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It's quite relevant to the thread... it's in the region and is happening during the storm (does it say NoVA/DC/Balt./WV in the title?). Besides, the RIC thread isn't doing jack right now anyway, and I would rather have the warnings/alerts posted in this thread than in an ongoing thread that doesn't pertain to this particular event. Also, it was only one post.

-----

In "I'm not going to just use this post for discussing a non-issue" thoughts...

More warnings to our south as storms continue to intensify this afternoon. The activity should keep going into NoVA and maybe, MAYBE into DC... right now the storms are in decent air, but they could run into some issues once the get into the more stable air in the DC/NoMD area.

Southern VA just came in with wind report #1 of the day:

2100 UNK 2 WNW SAXE CHARLOTTE VA 3695 7870 TREE DOWN ON SHUFFLETOWN ROAD NEAR SAXE (RNK)

Was I the first one to point out the potential a week ago? You rightfully dismissed me, but "it has that look, so it must be legit!".

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technically these threads are for everyone in the region.. the crew in SoVa just likes to sequester themselves. i think it's relevant since it is moving this way anyhow.

Perhaps, I just dont see how a warning in Bumf**k VA is really an issue for us when it is hours away and will likely change. If it was in Fredericksburg, than yeah it is worth posting. But whatever.

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Was I the first one to point out the potential a week ago? You rightfully dismissed me, but "it has that look, so it must be legit!".

S*** changes in a week... high pressure decided to gtfo so we were in the clear to get some severe.

From that string of posts:

looking further ahead...perhaps something to watch severewx wise late next week? Has the look.

Not really... my previous thoughts (see: previous page) still stand. Crappy air in place before the system... way too stable.

We are looking at a good storm track and a deepening low (perhaps I should have used that terminology instead of negative-based trough since neutral-tilt continental systems are also quite potent), and we also have support of an upper-level jet. However, condition #1 is not being met in that the high pressure is out of position. Instead of being well off the coast and drawing air up from the south (Gulf), it's close proximity to the storm systems is what's causing us the biggest headache in getting unstable air and storms into the region.

We got rid of a good amount of the crap air, and voila! Also note that, while I wasn't optimistic (i.e. "not really"), I did mention that two of the ingredients were in place, and I never said this was a non-event.

Even now I'm still not that happy about our chances once the storms get further north into DC/NoMD.

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WOW

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

450 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

EDGECOMBE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTHEASTERN NASH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 545 PM EST

* AT 449 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PIKEVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF

GOLDSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH

ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FREMONT...EUREKA...

BLACK CREEK...LUCAMA...

SARATOGA...

WILSON...

ELM CITY...WILLBANKS...

SHARPSBURG...

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S*** changes in a week... high pressure decided to gtfo so we were in the clear to get some severe.

From that string of posts:

We got rid of a good amount of the crap air, and voila! Also note that, while I wasn't optimistic (i.e. "not really"), I did mention that two of the ingredients were in place, and I never said this was a non-event.

Even now I'm still not that happy about our chances once the storms get further north into DC/NoMD.

Of course, and I aknowledged the CAD in place. The warmer air always tends to move well north of progged in that timeframe, so I got optimistic.

I'm also desperate :P

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WOW

NC isn't in our region.

Also,

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

EASTERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EST

* AT 501 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LURAY...OR 21 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF FRONT ROYAL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SPERRYVILLE...

FRONT ROYAL...

HUME...

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Oh Dave. :lol:

LOL I am in a mood today

NC isn't in our region.

Also,

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

EASTERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EST

* AT 501 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LURAY...OR 21 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF FRONT ROYAL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SPERRYVILLE...

FRONT ROYAL...

HUME...

LOL Halifax county isnt our region either, it is on the NC border, so what difference does it make

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LOL I am in a mood today

LOL Halifax county isnt our region either, it is on the NC border, so what difference does it make

Severe warning #1 for southern VA (winds only):

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

???

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again Halifax county still borders NC no matter what. Im done with this. It is just cluttering up this thread

In other news, it has been snowing in showshoe for the last few hours

Your whole argument was invalid from the beginning... touching NC or not, it's part of VA, which is in our region. Also, I would consider that area more relevant (climate-wise) than the western side of the Apps. (EDIT: though I welcome the WV posts as well)

Deal with it.

-----

New SVR warning NW of Richmond.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

518 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EST

* AT 516 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM 8 MILES WEST OF ORANGE TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF MASSAPONAX...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ORANGE...

MASSAPONAX...

STAFFORD...

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Your whole argument was invalid from the beginning... touching NC or not, it's part of VA, which is in our region. Also, I would consider that area more relevant (climate-wise) than the western side of the Apps. (EDIT: though I welcome the WV posts as well)

Deal with it.

-----

New SVR warning NW of Richmond.

LOL

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As much as I think PG county and points further east would be fun, I am going to stick with Mont.Co. Probably head closer to the Potomac River on a high spot, see if there is any pre-deluge views. Loosing daylight, so not much point in driving around a lot now. Hoping with the next line, some of the streams and creeks will finally break their banks....they were pretty close before.

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