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March 9-10 Rainy Obs Thread


jonjon

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lol

Of course stuff is supposed to happen this afternoon/evening... that's what I've been trying to tell everyone :arrowhead: We're not done yet!

it's underperforming west of i95 thus far.. no one is getting 1.7"+ later unless a storm stops over their house

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The stuff out west will move and fill in right?

Most definitely... especially once we get some convection going this afternoon.

-----

General statement: It seems to be a recurrence on here that some people just don't have any patience when it comes to getting precipitation... it'll come. I'm not trying to be mean/offensive when I say that... just making a statement for people to observe and learn from.

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I think he was implying the non-mountain west :P i.e. NoVA/NoMD territory.

yes the rainshadow territory:

i think the general idea of some high totals was OK but it looks to me like places northwest of I-95 before getting into oro effects will end up less than modeled over the past few days. just east of 95 seems to be the "sweet spot".

i hear ya on thinking the models were too high in some spots. i think the general idea is there just everything is a bit east--though guidance was sorta east lately anyway. but it's not all about "patience for later" when stating a fact (real or perceived).

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i hear ya on thinking the models were too high in some spots. i think the general idea is there just everything is a bit east--though guidance was sorta east lately anyway. but it's not all about "patience for later" when stating a fact (real or perceived).

True, and what you have posted thus far has been correct. I just find it odd that people get worried over totals before the event is over or almost completely over... there will be some nice rain and convection going on later this afternoon that has the potential to drop 1-2 inches of rain over most of the region E of the mountains, which is why I was asking people to be patient before going all :yikes: (again, you're fine... I'm just generalizing).

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It's performing pretty okay up this way, Ian. Just buckets of rain all morning in Baltimore. That would be a happier statement if this were snow as opposed to rain. If Ellinwood is right about it filling in more and another round later, I am guessing 2+ inches will be the norm across the Baltimore area.

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It's performing pretty okay up this way, Ian. Just buckets of rain all morning in Baltimore. That would be a happier statement if this were snow as opposed to rain. If Ellinwood is right about it filling in more and another round later, I am guessing 2+ inches will be the norm across the Baltimore area.

1.29 at BWI thus far at noon. Hasn't let up a bit in the city. Driving home later is going to be so much fun! :thumbsdown:

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1.29 at BWI thus far at noon. Hasn't let up a bit in the city. Driving home later is going to be so much fun! :thumbsdown:

yeah, just had to run to a client's house in the NE part of the city, and the storm drains were already suffering. If this continues for another 6+ hours like this, the rush hour is going to be difficult at best.

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yeah, just had to run to a client's house in the NE part of the city, and the storm drains were already suffering. If this continues for another 6+ hours like this, the rush hour is going to be difficult at best.

Just over a inch has fallen at the Science Center so far - one of my coworkers left to get lunch and she said the allyway behind our office was like a river.

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It's performing pretty okay up this way, Ian. Just buckets of rain all morning in Baltimore. That would be a happier statement if this were snow as opposed to rain. If Ellinwood is right about it filling in more and another round later, I am guessing 2+ inches will be the norm across the Baltimore area.

im not sure people here read everything or just skim... perhaps my communication skills are weak -- im talking about the "radar hole" west of I95 and have been the whole time.

post-1615-0-79796100-1299778445.gif

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FWIW

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --CWA REMAINS IN A MOIST STABLE WEDGE OF AIR...WITH A WARM FRONT

STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT BACK INTO WEST

VIRGINIA. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE

INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE

SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE CWA LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS

/ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT MANY/...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY.

BUT EVEN WITH VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS/SHEAR

PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP

LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS...THERE IS A SEVERE

RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MOST AT RISK

AREA IS THE NORTH CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN

MARYLAND. AND OBVIOUSLY A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK WILL

CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

BEING THE MAIN WINDOW OF TIME FOR CONCERN...AND FLOOD WATCHES

REMAIN IN EFFECT.-- End Changed Discussion --

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im not sure people here read everything or just skim... perhaps my communication skills are weak -- im talking about the "radar hole" west of I95 and have been the whole time.

post-1615-0-79796100-1299778445.gif

Its still raining here - in case there was any confusion. ;)

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im not sure people here read everything or just skim... perhaps my communication skills are weak -- im talking about the "radar hole" west of I95 and have been the whole time.

post-1615-0-79796100-1299778445.gif

Don't worry, it's not you :P

Umm, let me ask Ji about that - I'm not very good with geography.

Ji-orgraphy.

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are you west of i95 or near what i termed the "sweet spot" earlier?

Sorry, Ian, it was unclear to me about where you were referencing. I am technically west of I-95, but only by a few miles. I guess I am pretty much "on I-95" (when that is used as a divider, I always claim the side getting the good stuff). Didn't realize there was such a radar hole further to the west.

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For some of our more southern friends:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0220.html

mcd0220.gif

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101751Z - 101945Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND COULD INCREASE WITH SHALLOW

CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH MAY

BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NC AND CNTRL/SRN VA.

LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF A

PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT FROM SRN VA SWD THROUGH W-CNTRL NC THROUGH

E-CNTRL SC. ANOTHER LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS INCREASING

FROM THE GULF STREAM NWD THROUGH SERN NC. ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING

WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A STRONG NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500

J/KG...AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER DEPTH SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY NOT

PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTNING. DESPITE LACK OF DIABATIC WARMING...SOME

INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR AS THE CONVECTION INTERCEPTS MOIST

AXIS ACROSS CNTRL NC AND SRN VA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F.

STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 40-50 KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY

PROMOTE BOWING SEGMENTS AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND

WITHIN THE HEAVIER...FORCED LINE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS.

-----

This stuff will translate NE as we get into the late afternoon and early evening.

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